All Forums > SimLeague Football > NFL > Patriots 9.5 points favorites over Ravens
1/22/2013 2:58 PM
biz -

I'm assuming you mean the Brady to Welker miss in the Super Bowl. I think it's 50-50.  But as I said before, Welker said it was on him, Brady said it was on Welker, many analysts and ex-players said it was on Welker.  It could have been a little lower so he could have caught it and ran, but if he threw that to the inside shoulder, he might be getting Welker crushed.

1/22/2013 3:15 PM
Brady wins an insane amount of games.  It's funny that the point your making is that he doesn't do enough to win games. He wins year after year in the regular season, and he's 17-7 in the playoffs.\

This sounds like it comes from someone who drinks too much Brady worship kool-aid.

Brady doesn't win an insane amount of games - THE TEAM wins an insane amount of games. It also did that when he went down for a season and a guy who never started in the NFL took his place (11 wins is a season most teams would love to have).

The wins are a product of THE TEAM, and people using them to defend Brady as "great" or "elite" or anything else is as absurd as claiming Trent Dilfer was the reason the 2000 Ravens won the Super Bowl.
That said, Warner was amazing for a while, he's a HOF in my book.

Then we agree on something, because I think Warner is often UNDER RATED.

He went to 3 SBs and won 1 of them. In fact, I would argue if it wasn't for the cheating Patriots defense and a sensational throw by Big Ben, Warner would have three rings with two different teams. Not bad for a guy who was considered a nobody football-wise, had success with a team that wasn't supposed to be successful, was considered washed-up, and then did it all again having success with another team that wasn't supposed to be successful.

As I said, I'd take either the Rams or the Cardinals version of Warner over any version of Brady, in any situation, every single time. I know a lot of people would disagree, but I'd rather trust my team to Warner who I KNOW will find a way to make necessary throws and has proven he comes through than to Brady who has failed miserably in big time scenarios, especially in the last several years.
But as I said before, Welker said it was on him, Brady said it was on Welker, many analysts and ex-players said it was on Welker. 

Welker blamed himself because he's aware that it's not exactly kosher to blame Brady for anything, ever.

Brady blamed Welker because, well, that's what Brady does. He thinks he's better than he is, maybe because he buys into the hype others give him.

The analysts and ex-players who said it are all high on Brady worship kool-aid.

Honestly, if it's ANY OTHER QB, there isn't even a question its the QB's fault. No question in the world the throw needs to be better.

As for Welker getting crushed, yeah, that could be a concern, but if you get it to him accurately at least there is a chance he holds on for the catch (or you get an unsportsmanlike penalty). Where Brady put it made it difficult to catch, and so it's Brady's fault.

Think of what happens if Welker DOES CATCH the ball. It's an amazing catch on a bad throw, but he pulls it in and it leads to a sequence where the Patriots win the SB. Suddenly NO ONE REMEMBERS Welker saved the SB win with that catch. Brady would once again get all the credit despite Welker pulling down his errant throw that made all the difference in the world.
1/22/2013 3:23 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 1/22/2013 10:20:00 AM (view original):
So I'm not going to list the advanced stats for WRs because they're incredibly quarterback dependent.  Larry Fitzgerald finished last this year.  They don't do a good job of separating the QB dependency from the receiver.

Look, if the argument was "Brady's clutch-ness is overhyped.  He has the 3 rings, but he's also lost many playoff games in which his team was favored" I don't know if I'd disagree.  The argument that was presented to me, and I'm saying isn't true, was that Brady has been blessed with offensive weapons his entire career and was carried to 3 Super Bowl wins.  In fact, he's had below average to poor offensive lines in his first 2 wins.  He's had below-average receivers until the Moss/Welker era.  He took a team that Drew Bledsoe (a great QB, still in his prime, who made the Pro Bowl his first year with Buffalo in 2002), struggled with, and won 3 Super Bowls in 4 years.  Throughout his career he led his offense to more success than anyone anticipated.

To the argument of "Brady is a dink and dunker and can't throw the ball down the field" I'd give 2 arguments - 1) If you don't have a deep threat, how are you throwing the ball down the field with confidence? We're blaming Brady for hitting the open man 8 yards in front of him, rather than forcing something to a covered David Patten 30 yards down the field? Yes, when you get a deep threat like Randy Moss, it's easier to complete passes down the field (at a record level).  2) The argument just isn't true.  Brady's yards per attempt is 7.5 for his career, compared to Manning's 7.6.  If you want to take out the record-setting passing attack year (again...Tom Brady was part of a passing attack that set records), it drops to 7.4.  His yards per completion is 11.8 for his career, compared to Manning's 11.7.  If you take out the first Moss/Welker year, it drops a little but still rounds up to 11.8, which is higher than Manning's.  It's interesting that Brady dinks and dunks all the time, yet his yards per catch are higher than Peyton's, who can throw the ball into tight spaces down the field.  And again, let's remember that Manning had Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne for the majority of his career.

The ironic thing is, I hate the Pats.  I respect Brady, but root for him to lose.  I never thought I'd be defending him this hard, but when someone says he was carried to 3 Super Bowl wins, I have to bring up the facts.
    
Yeah, I was interested to see the WR stats that weren't QB dependent.   That seemed crazy.

Anyway, I never said Brady inherited great weapons.   I said they might not be the turds you were making them out to be.  I also said he was blessed with coaches that were capable of creating mismatches with what he did have.
1/22/2013 3:29 PM
biz - 

Re: Your first 3 paragraphs - A lot of the same stuff you've said, over and over.  I'm aware football is a team game, but teams with great quarterbacks win more games than teams without great quarterbacks.  The highest correlation between a position and winning is with the QB.  You claimed he was carried, and it fact he wasn't.  I feel like you would have showed your work over 22 pages, but instead you just write a lot of words.  You said Brady can't make the accurate deep throws to win games, and I've shown you evidence where he has.  He wins a shitton of games.

Re: Warner - if you want Warner at his best over Brady, OK, I won't argue with you.  That said, Brady has been much more consistent, with changing talent around him, and Warner has had some dud years in his career.  Regarding "if it wasn't for...Warner would have 3 rings." - yes, you can say that about a lot of guys.  If the Pats defense didn't let Eli drive down the field and score TDs late in games, Brady has 5 rings.  Remember - in the 2 Super Bowls he lost, (sorry, his team lost, it's a team game, right?) he put his team on top late in the 4th quarter.  So, the "what if game" is an easy game to play.

Re: Welker - The QB's job is to get a completion when he throws the ball.  The ball should have been thrown lower.  But if he didn't throw the ball to his back shoulder, he would have been crushed.  You can find the play on youtube...he's running just outside the numbers.  When he jumps for the ball, Kenny Phillips is at the numbers.  He put it on his back shoulder, and Brady knows it's a ball Welker catches, as Collingsworth said at the time, "100 out of 100 times."

1/22/2013 3:34 PM
Mike - 

I guess that's why debates like this can happen - it's hard to look at wide outs and their numbers and make a determination on whether they're very talented, or if the QBs they play with are just so talented that they make the receivers that much better.  But I'm not going to let someone tell me Troy Brown and company were just as good as any other team's weapons. (i feel like i've been saying weapons too much) Maybe they weren't turds, but they weren't a Super Bowl quality offense without Brady. 
1/22/2013 3:50 PM
Collingsworth needs to check his stats because Welker dropped that ball, so maybe it should be "99 out of 100 times".

Beyond that, I think that assessment of the situation supports my assertion that Brady relies on talented team mates to carry him. If the analysis is that Brady intentionally threw where he did, then it says he was relying on Welker to make a catch because of Welker's superior talent to make the catch. I would take that further and say that Brady has relied a great deal on Welker, Moss, and others to make catches rather than putting it where he should on the throws.

1/22/2013 3:50 PM
I honestly feel like you're looking at size/speed = talent.   It doesn't.   I'll admit that NE has had a bunch of undersized WR.   It seems like they have a long list of 5'10" guys who run 4.6 forties.   That doesn't make them less talented.
1/22/2013 4:01 PM
biz - 

That's why I said it was 50-50.  He needed to throw it a little lower.  But he threw it over the correct shoulder.  Welker needed to catch it.  It wouldn't have been a miraculous catch.  

Brady has been one of the more accurate passers in the game. (You didn't see it Sunday)  You said he couldn't make the "big throws" and even though most of America has seen him make big throws, I had to show you the video evidence of him making big throws.  

I'm still waiting for me to show me the elite talent he had that carried him to 3 Super Bowl wins.

1/22/2013 4:04 PM
Posted by MikeT23 on 1/22/2013 3:50:00 PM (view original):
I honestly feel like you're looking at size/speed = talent.   It doesn't.   I'll admit that NE has had a bunch of undersized WR.   It seems like they have a long list of 5'10" guys who run 4.6 forties.   That doesn't make them less talented.
For the record, I loved Troy Brown.  He was a team leader, had a knack for getting open, and had great hands.  I think in 2001, you could argue he was a top-15 WR.  I don't know if he was actually that high, but he played very well that year.  But Brady did not have a deep threat that year, and really didn't have one until Moss.  If you don't have a guy who can leap for the jump balls, or run and get behind the defense, then it makes it harder for the QB, and the other receivers as well to get open, since the defense can play a little closer to the line.  You can be talented and be 5'10" and run a 4.6, but most teams have more talented players than these guys.
1/22/2013 5:02 PM
Posted by burnsy483 on 1/22/2013 2:44:00 PM (view original):
If you don't have a deep threat, how are you throwing the ball down the field with confidence? We're blaming Brady for hitting the open man 8 yards in front of him, rather than forcing something to a covered David Patten 30 yards down the field?

A good QB hits an open man in a window down the field when necessary. All the great ones do it, but I've yet to see Brady toss the deep ball accurately into a tiny window.  

(Here you go - There are a few here.  Please find me the ones where he threw the ball inaccurately. www.youtube.com/watch )

You can even look at a guy like Eli Manning and the throw he made to Mario Manningham in the last SB - perfectly accurate when it needed to be. If Brady has that same situation, he probably doesn't even throw the pass because he's too conservative, and if he does, it's probably not accurate.  (Yes, you're describing arguably the greatest postseason pass in NFL history.  And if you're going to compare the accuracy of Eli Manning favorably to Tom Brady, you really are delusional.  Eli is clutch, and I want him over anyone else inside 2 minutes needing a score, but he is not consistently accurate.)
 
The same can be said of the Roethlisberger throw to Santonio Homes against the Cardinals even though it was shorter. Brady probably doesn't even attempt it let alone complete that one. It has to be perfect to work and Ben made it happen, but Brady doesn't make those tough throws.  (Ben is on record of saying the moment the ball left his hand, he regretted throwing it. He thought it would be picked.  But yes, excellent throw in a huge spot)

Brady takes and completes little throws or wide open down field strikes. He doesn't throw many INTs because he never tries to hit the small windows, and sometimes you have to do that to win. (Brady wins an insane amount of games.  It's funny that the point your making is that he doesn't do enough to win games. He wins year after year in the regular season, and he's 17-7 in the playoffs.  You have yet to let me know how he's been carried during his initial 10-0 posteseason stretch, besides mentioning Troy Brown and A. Smith, which I won't accept as an answer.)

Heck, Kurt Warner practically made a career out of hitting the small windows with precision accuracy, and I'd take Warner from the Rams days or the Cardinals SB run over Brady every single time. He hits the necessary throws and actually makes plays to will the team to a win rather than riding the coat tails of a talented team.  (Still waiting for you to list the talent. Claiming there's talent over and over and over again doesn't mean it's actually there. That said, Warner was amazing for a while, he's a HOF in my book.)  If Brady was on those Cardinals, there is no way they even make it to that SB with the Steelers unless Fitzgerald did even more than he already did for Warner. 
It's interesting that Brady dinks and dunks all the time, yet his yards per catch are higher than Peyton's, who can throw the ball into tight spaces down the field.
That's because Welker and the others get a ton of YAC. *rolls eyes*  (It's a fair point actually.  But enough with this *rolls eyes* bullshit.  I was having a conversation with my 16 year old niece this weekend, and she didn't like what I said to her at one point and rolled her eyes at me. I told her that's rude, and it's not something adults do when they're having a conversation. So, stop acting like a 16-year old girl.  Also, see the link above for great throws Brady has thrown. And again, it's tough for me to fault Brady for not forcing a 30 yard throw to someone that's not open, rather than take 8 yards and see if he can run after the catch.)
Check the numbers.  Curtis Martin had 1152 yards in 1997.  Antowain Smith had 1157 yards in 2001.  Don't try to portray the Patriots as being an empty lineup that Brady somehow transformed.  They were already a playoff team with Super Bowl aspirations when he took over.
Agreed 100%. A talented team carried Brady to wins and he gets all the credit. (Antowain Smith.  He should get the credit. OK.)
Fantastic video!  Loved that it shows the whole drive to win the game vs the Rams.  Great pass to Troy Brown.

Moss's record breaking TD was nice too.

Great find.
1/22/2013 5:03 PM
And that's where coaching comes in.   NE's TD was a perfect example.   Stack a couple of WR, confuse the D and one is wide open.
1/23/2013 11:28 AM
One being wide open is a big part of what gets Brady his stats and the team its wins.

Funny how that's all coaching and other players doing what they are supposed to be doing, but Brady is the one who gets all the credit when the team wins.

1/23/2013 2:00 PM
sadly, there are not 32 NFL QBs that can routinely hit a wide open WR
1/23/2013 2:21 PM
Maybe not, but there are enough of them that simply being able to hit the open guy doesn't make you an "elite" QB or get you into the HOF.

1/23/2013 2:33 PM
honestly, you seem to be convinced that 'elite' doesn't exist...so going with that thinking, OK he's not elite


however, whether the talent around him carried him or he is the luckiest human on the planet, his numbers at QB dwarf nearly every QB to play in his era....which locks him up a spot in Canton whether you like him or not
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