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12/23/2012 4:12 PM (edited)

Bryant DIII - Season 86 Preview


I've extracted the data from every team that received votes in last season's "real" coaches poll and then used my attribute weights to come up with these rankings. I took into account the ratings of the likely starters at each formation to come up with each team's ratings. Elkhour has also sent me his power rankings and below is a combination of the two.


Team Rankings

1. Huntingdon (superv97)
Overall Rating: 564 (rank 1)
Offensive Rating: 554 (rank 2)
Defensive Rating: 575 (rank 1)
Analysis: Huntingdon continues to be the #1 team on paper in Bryant DIII, they have been ranked #1 in every pre-season power ranking since elkhour began posting his rankings. Coming off of 5 consecutive 15+ win seasons and no championship to show for it, Huntingdon is sure to have another deep playoff run and quite possibly another chance to win it all this year. Huntingdon doesn't like they'll face much opposition within their conference and I see no reason why they shouldn't make the playoffs with a very high seed.
Key Games: @South-Sewanee (wk 3), @Menlo (wk 5)
Players to Watch: Kevin Hines, William Thompson, Clarence Reynolds


2. 
Ferrum (bugeaters11)
Overall Rating: 554 (rank 2)
Offensive Rating: 552 (rank 3)
Defensive Rating: 556 (rank 2)
Analysis: Ferrum heads into the season after winning their regional bracket but losing in last season's final 4. Ferrum continues to be a national powerhouse under bugeater11's coaching with 15 consecutive playoff appearances. They also haven't lost a regular season conference game in the past 6 seasons. With a relatively easy schedule you can expect Ferrum will still be a favorite when the playoffs roll around, and likely sitting at 14-0 with a CC under their belt before the playoffs get underway. Leading Ferrum's defense is DB 
Keith Olson who made last season's All-American team with 11 int. 
Key Games: Otterbein (wk 2), Rhodes (wk 5)
Players To Watch: Michael Buckner, Andrew Thomas, Marvin Beard

3. 
Austin (eblake)
Overall Rating: 540 (rank 3)
Offensive Rating: 537 (rank 8)
Defensive Rating: 542 (rank 3)
Analysis: Austin hasn't lost more than one game outside of the playoffs for the past 6 seasons, which is saying a lot in a strong conference like the ASC. This season they'll have to beat at least 3 ranked teams to continue that streak. To be successful they'll need to rely on their seasoned offense, 10 players of whom are seniors or started in a previous season. 
Key Games: @Mount Union (wk 2), Rhodes (wk 4), @Susquehanna (wk 5), @California Lutheran (wk 11)
Players to Watch: Ramon Perry, Robert Jones, Harry Gardner

4. Linfield (kcwallace)
Overall Rating: 539 (rank 4)
Offensive Rating: 547 (rank 4)
Defensive Rating: 531 (rank 7)
Analysis: Fresh off of last season's national championship Linfield is still a very strong team capable of defending its title. Kcwallace has coached Linfield since season 40 and finally claimed his first national championship last year after playing in 3 of the past 6 title games. Linfield will have many opportunities to show their skills this season with tough non-conference games vs Greenville, Macalester, and Trinity (TX). Linfield should have no problem winning its division as they've done for 22 straight years, however, they'll likely have their hands full when playing the explosive offense of Menlo during the regular season and quite possibly again in the CC.
Key Games: @Greenville (wk 2), Macalester (wk 3), @Trinity (TX) (wk 5), @Menlo (wk 7)
Players To Watch: Jerry Lewis, Robert Lewis, Steven Barnes

5. 
MIT (graham1958)
Overall Rating: 539 (rank 5)
Offensive Rating: 554 (rank 1)
Defensive Rating: 524 (rank 14)
Analysis: Graham1958 is the 3rd coach at MIT in the past 3 seasons. Graham1958 inherited a great team as MIT is only 4 years removed from their last national championship. MIT is the only team able to boast a higher offensive ranking than Huntingdon thanks to their loaded offense. I expect MIT will continue to be dominant under their new coach as they don't face any strong opponents this season. MIT has reigned as champion of the NESCAC for the past 7 years and unless a sim can manage an unlikely upset it will soon be 8. 
Key Games: Albion (wk 1)
Players To Watch: Peter Morgan, Christopher Brooks, Jose Hendrix

6. Wisconsin-Platteville (slid64er)
Overall Rating: 538 (rank 6)
Offensive Rating: 535 (rank 10)
Defensive Rating: 541 (rank 4)
Analysis: Wisconsin-Platteville had an terrific 13-0 run last season that abruptly ended with an 0-2 finish during the post-season. Slid64er has turned this team around quickly while participating in the human challenge among some of the coaches in DIII Bryant. Assuming Wisconsin-Platteville continues to improve, expect to see them making a run in the playoffs this season, the post-season is the only place to improve their record.
Key Games: @Waynesburg (wk 3), @Franklin & Marshall (wk 4), @Bridgewater (wk 5)
Players To Watch: Patrick Sargent, Mike Foreman, Mark Hull

7. Concordia (WI) (elkhour)
Overall Rating: 537 (rank 7)
Offensive Rating: 535 (rank 9)
Defensive Rating: 539 (rank 5)
Analysis: Concordia (WI) has been the team with the hot hand recently, in the past 5 seasons they've gone 45-0 in conference play, claimed a national championship with a 19-0 season 3 seasons ago and elkhour was named last year's coach of the year. Not a lot seems to be different this season as Concordia (WI) is still looking strong. While they don't quite have the grueling non-conference schedule they had last year, Concordia (WI) still has big games vs New Jersey, Macalester, and Greenville. Unless Greenville has a strong showing when these two teams meet up, its likely Concordia (WI) will be the dominant dominant in the IBFC.

Key Games: @New Jersey (wk 3), @Macalester (wk 5), Greenville (wk 9)
Players To Watch: Robert Barber, Michael Davies, Antonio Thomas

8. 
Loras (bisoneer)
Overall Rating: 536 (rank 8)
Offensive Rating: 539 (rank 6)
Defensive Rating: 534 (rank 6)
Analysis: Loras looks to be a solid well-balanced team this season with no overwhelming strengths or weaknesses. They have dominated the IIAC going without a conference loss since they won their last national championship 5 seasons ago. Waynesburg looks to be an obstacle in the conference schedule this season though as they are developing into a much more competitive team. With a bit of luck Loras may be geared for a bit of a playoff run, but they may very well find the door for an early exit as they've done the past few seasons.
Key Games: @Rhodes (wk 3), @Susquehanna (wk 4), @Curry (wk 5), @Waynesburg (wk 6)
Players To Watch: Jesus Fox, John Hopkins, Harold Franco

9. 
Colorado College (lawhorns)
Overall Rating: 532 (rank 9)
Offensive Rating: 538 (rank 7)
Defensive Rating: 525 (rank 13)
Analysis: Colorado was voted as the upset of the season last year with their 0-3 start. Obviously they're hoping to start this season off differently. However, they'll have some good competition at Whittier and vs New Jersey during their out of conference games. The only team that looks to be able to challenge Colorado once conference play begins is Macalester. Colorado has made it to the playoffs 8 years running and they certainly have the personnel to continue that trend.
Key Games: @Whittier (wk 3), New Jersey (wk 4), Albion (wk 7), Macalester (wk 13)
Players To Watch: James Garcia, Michael Jacobson, James Oliver

10. California Lutheran (wine22)
Overall Rating: 532 (rank 10)
Offensive Rating: 533 (rank 13)
Defensive Rating: 530 (rank 8)
Analysis: California Lutheran is the highest rated team that isn't rated the best in its conference. Last season the ASC was very competitive between Austin, California Lutheran, East Texas Baptist, and Howard Payne. California Lutheran will play each of those teams during its conference schedule as well as 5 human coached teams for their non-conference schedule. While California Lutheran is certainly very capable of making the playoffs, a couple of upsets and their season could quickly find itself on the ropes. The performance of their line on both sides of the ball will be a significant factor in how well California Lutheran is able to do. Offensively they have a 5th year senior and three more seniors and defensively they have another 5th year senior and 3 other 4th year linemen. 
Key Games: @Whittier (wk 1), @East Texas Baptist (wk 6), Howard Payne (wk 8), Austin (wk 11)
Players To Watch: Thomas Wade, Richard Thomas, John Berg

Remaining Rankings (Coach, Overall Rating, Offensive Rating-Offensive Rank, Defensive Rating-Defensive Rank):
11. 
Gettysburg (hallgren, 531, 535-10, 526-11)
12. Wisconsin-Stout (choochoo, 528, 533-12, 523-15)
13. Guilford (bce98a, 527, 533-14, 521-16)
14. Susquehanna (tannhauser, 525, 540-5, 510-19)
15. St. Olaf (mfnmyers, 525, 525-16, 525-12)
16.
 Bridgewater (VA) (nauds3000, 522, 529-15, 515-17)
17. 
Merchant Marine (bluegoogs, 521, 514-20, 528-9)
18. Menlo (dscv10, 515, 503-27, 526-11)
19. 
King's (PA) (Da Stinkos, 513, 519-17, 507-21)
20. 
Trinity (TX) (soupman78734, 511, 518-18, 504-23)
21. 
Whittier (travs, 508, 517-19, 498-26)
22. 
Mount Union (gezeus, 508, 504-26, 511-18)
23.
 East Texas Baptist (albright73, 507, 504-25, 510-20)
24. Waynesburg (mojolad, 507, 509-23, 505-22)
25. Curry (bandit13, 504, 506-24, 502-24)

Conference Predictions:
ASC                      Austin
CC                        Gettysburg
FFC                      Merchant Marine
IBFC                    Concordia (WI)
IIAC                      Loras
MIAA                     Colorado College
MAC                     Susquehanna
MWC                   Washington (MO)
MIAC                    St. Olaf
NEFC                  Curry
NESCAC            MIT
NJAC                  Huntingdon
NCAC                Oberlin
NWC                  Linfield
OAC                   Mount Union
ODAC                Guilford
SCAC                Trinity (TX)
USA South       Ferrum
WIAC                 Wisconsin-Platteville


12/29/2012 11:35 PM (edited)
Bisoneer Coaches Poll (BCP)

The coaches participating in this season's coaches poll are: bisoneer, bucki22, cin_ben, elkhour, genuvar, glitter, and superv97. I couldn't do this without all of your help, so thank you very much for participating.

Preseason Top 25

1. Huntingdon (3)
2. Ferrum (2)
3. Austin
4. Linfield (1)
5. Loras
6. Concordia (WI)
7. Colorado College
8. California Lutheran
9. Gettysburg
10. MIT
11. Guilford
12. Merchant Marine
13. Wisconsin-Platteville
14. Menlo
15. St. Olaf
15. Wisconsin-Stout
17. Susquehanna
18. King`s
19. Whittier
20. Mount Union
20. Trinity (TX)
22. Bridgewater (VA)
22. Waynesburg
24. Oberlin
25. Macalester

Others receiving votes: New Jersey, East Texas Baptist, Chicago, Hiram, Union (NY), Curry, Kean, South-Sewanee, Case Western, Howard Payne, and Muhlenberg

The initial top 25 resembles the pre-season power rankings with an identical top 4, 9 of the same top 10 and 23 of the same top 25. #9 Gettysburg replaces #13 Wisconsin-Platteville in the top 10 while #24 Oberlin and #25 Macalester squeezed in over East Texas Baptist and New Jersey. The 1st place votes were divided among the defending national champion #4 Linfield and perennial contenders #1 Huntingdon and #2 Ferrum. This season features 20 games between the current top 25 teams in non-conference play alone, so be sure to keep an eye on the daily updates to see what may be shaking up in the top 25. The ASC leads all conferences with 3 teams in the top 25 and is scheduled to host a colossal match-up between division rivals #3 Austin and #8 California Lutheran later in the season.  The MAC also looks to have a close race between division rivals #18 King`s and #19 Susquehanna. The MWC looks to be on the weaker side of the league this season as no votes were given to any team in that conference.

Top 25 after Non-Conference

1. Linfield (2)
2. Concordia (WI) (1)
3. Colorado College
4. Huntingdon (1)
5. Ferrum (1)
6. California Lutheran
7. Oberlin
8. St. Olaf
8. Susquehanna
10. Curry
10. Gettysburg
12. Wisconsin-Platteville
13. MIT
14. Whitworth
15. Mount Union
15. Washington & Jefferson
17. Wisconsin-Stout
18. East Texas Baptist
18. Macalester
20. Sul Ross State
21. Maryville
22. Bridgewater (VA)
23. Wisconsin Lutheran
24. Capital
24. Wisconsin-Stevens Point

Others receiving votes: King`s, Merchant Marine, Hiram, Hobart, Greenville, Kenyon, Menlo, Elmhurst, New Jersey, Albion, Louisiana, Muhlenberg and Wilmington (OH)

The next poll should be released 4 games into conference play.
12/29/2012 5:20 PM (edited)
Top games daily updates and next day top games preview

12/25
The 86th season on Bryant kicks off today with a bang. Teams are back in action and what an exciting day of football it was. All of the top 25 in the above power rankings finished the day at 1-0 or with a loss to another team that also made the power rankings.
Huntingdon is #1 in this season's power rankings and advances to 1-0 with a 40-12 win over Millsaps. Huntingdon QB Lewis Brown was named the player of the game with 426 yards through the air and 3 TD tosses. Walter Robinson was his most productive target with 114 yards and 3 TDs. 
MIT managed to barely edge past Albion finishing the game with a 63 yard drive capped off with Patrick Navarro connecting with Patrick Summers in the final minute of the game to claim a 10-9 victory.
One of today's big matchups featured California Lutheran and Whittier. Whittier played the better first half and went into halftime with a 14-8 lead thanks to 2 TDs and their defense keeping Californa Lutheran out of the endzone. However, California Lutheran made a habit of finishing drives in the endzone in the 2nd half with 4 TD's to claim a 36-24 win in their season opener.
King`s fell to Curry today with a score of 14-31. Curry dominated the time of possession all game long controlling the ball for over twice as long as King`s and running 24 more plays. Stanley Phillips played a large role in keeping the TOP in Curry's favor with an average of 6 yards per rush with 23 carries for 139 yards and 2 TDs King`s and Whittier will both be looking to avoid an 0-2 start in tomorrow's match-up between these two teams.
Bridgewater made a big statement in their season opener by beating Waynesburg on the road. Joe Albright led Bridgewater to TDs on their first 3 possessions and never looked back as Bridgewater won 37-10. Waynesburg seemed unsure about their QB situation with time split between Larry Rodriguez and Bobby Peterson. Both threw more INT than TD in the loss and neither seemed to have the performace Waynesburg was hoping for.
The final game featured today is Macalester hosting Mount Union. Macalester advances to 1-0 thanks to RS So QB Eugene Willis throwing for 5 TD and 335 yards. Mount Union's defense was great on 3rd and 4th downs where they held Macalester to 4/12 on 3rd down conversions and 0/2 on 4th downs. However, they were unable to consistently get Eugene Willis and the Macalester offense into 3rd down situations leading to a 42-24 defeat. 

12/26
Today the frontrunner of  Bryant DIII, Huntingdon, faced their first challenging opponent and came out on top with a 28-21 victory at Rhodes. Luis Brown had another excellent game going 35/55 for 447 yards and 3 TD. The Rhodes defense was able to make some big plays, netting 3 sacks and 3 INT (one of which allowed Rhodes to enter halftime with the lead) but ultimately had no answer to Huntingdon's passing attack.
Trinity (TX) was unable to beat Macalester on the road despite forcing 3 INT and holding Macalester to 0.5 yards per carry. 
Ferrum beat Otterbein by a score of 35-6 to advance to 2-0.
Mount Union racks up the upset of the day by overcoming an 11 point deficit in the 4th quarter to defeat Austin by 3 in OT. Mount Union LB Michael Hurd was named player of the game after picking off Austin QB Henry Sterling to seal the 21-18 win for Mount Union in OT. 
Linfield, the defending National Champions continue their winning streak from last season's playoffs with a 34-10 win over Greenville. After a quiet first half with the game tied at 3-3, Linfield RB Jerry Lewis scored 3 TD in the 4th quarter to finish off Greenville. He finished the game with 130 yards on 19 carries for an average of 6.8 YPC.
Whittier falls to 0-2 after losing to King`s. In a wild game with over 1100 total yards, 80 points and 8 turnovers, King`s defense steps up in the final minutes to force a turnover on downs along with 2 INT's by Russell Ortiz on Whittier's 3 final possessions to take and keep the lead for a 48-38 victory.
The remaining teams in both the pre-season top 25 power rankings and coaches poll all secured a win to advance to 2-0 or 1-1 if they suffered a loss yesterday.

12/27
Games to watch:
Huntingdon advances to 3-0 with a win at South-Sewanee. They controlled the ballgame racking up 443 total yards while holding South-Sewanee to 177 and less than 1 yard per carry. 47-10 was the final and Huntingdon offensive stars QB Louis Brown and RB Kevin Hines each individually racked up more yards than their opponent.
Macalester was unable to continue its impressive winning streak against quality opponents today as they fell to the defending national champion. Linfield's defense picked off Macalester QB Eugene Willis 5 times culminating in a 10-20 Linfield victory.
Wisconsin-Platteville holds off Waynesburg to advance to 3-0 on the season. Waynesburg managed to outgain Wisconsin-Platteville by 33 yards and 1 first down, but couldn't convert big plays when they needed them going 8/20 on 3rd down and 0/2 on 4th. Waynesburg kicker Derek Buckley also missed his solo FG attempt giving Wisconsin-Platteville a solid 34-14 win. 
Concordia (WI) was on the road this week facing New Jersey who they dismantled 47-6. WR Charles Thompson was Concordia's biggest offensive weapon with 7 receptions for 122 yards along with a TD and Antonio Thomas led the defense with 7 tackels, 3 sacks and 2 forced fumbles.
Loras also managed to win big on the road this week with a 41-7 win at Rhodes. Loras QB Robert Newman had 238 yards through the air and was just short of completing 80% of his passes while Loras RB Jason Carter managed the rushing attack with 21 carries for 196 yards with an average of 9.3 YPC.
Colorado College beats Whittier to stay undefeated in today's final featured match-up. Colorado RB James Garcia accounted for all 3 of Colorado's TDs on 15 carries totaling 117 yards. Whittier is now 0-3, and probably the best 0-3 team in the league with its losses coming to BCP #8 California Lutheran, #18 King`s and #7 Colorado College. 

12/28
Rhodes fell to Austin in today's game by a final of 16-17. Austin WR Robert Lewis was able to haul in a 39 yard toss early in the 4th quarter to give Austin a 1 point edge. Austin was able to hold on to that lead for the remainder of the game advancing to 3-1.
Wisconsin-Platteville defeated Franklin & Marshall on the day by a score of 21-7. Wisconsin-Platteville DL Terry Bennett led his defense with 8 tackles, 3 of which were sacks, 2 more were tackles for loss, and he also had one forced fumble to top off his monster game. 
Loras was unable to conjure up a win today as they faced Susquehanna on the road. Susquehanna QB John York put up 3 TD's connecting with a different receiver for each one. Loras wasn't able to do much in terms of stopping him and drops to 3-1 after the 13-24 defeat at Susquehanna. Susquehanna should see another big day of action tomorrow as they face Austin.
New Jersey loses a low scoring affair with Colorado College, 9-13. Colorado QB Leroy Anderson completes a pass to WR Michael Jacobson in the 3rd quarter to account for the only TD of the game. Colorado is now 4-0 and has successfully averted the 0-3 rut that they began their last season with.

12/29
As the non-conference portion of the schedule wraps up, Huntingdon comes away with a win against Menlo. Huntingdon Fr. RB Joseph Miller scored all 3 of Huntingdon's TD's on the game, but their offense was again largely fueled by Luis Brown and Kevin Hines who combined for 347 total yards. Huntingdon won by a score of 27-10.
Rhodes drops to 0-5 after facing an undefeated Ferrum who dominated that match-up 52-13. Ferrum QB Michael Buckner had 4 passing TD supported by 3 on the ground by various RB all contributing to the massively lopsided outcome of the game.
Austin falls yet again today dropping to 3-2 while their opponent Susquehanna will enter conference play at 5-0. Susquehanna QB John York was named the player of the game passing for 300 yards and all 4 of Susquehanna's TDs, but Susquehanna's defense played just as well holding Austin without a TD all game long. The final was 9-31.
34-20 was the final score as Linfield mounts an impressive 3rd quarter performance to beat Trinity (TX) in a very good game. Linfield QB Peter Park exhibited super hero like abilities as he threw for 3 TD's in the 3rd quarter breaking the 13-13 tie to secure the lead for Linfield. He ended the game with 347 total yards, outgaining the entire team of Trinity by 111 yards.
Wisconsin-Platteville and Bridgewater (VA) meet in a battle of two undefeated teams where Wisconsin-Platteville walks out the victor winning 31-14. Wisconsin-Platteville QB James Frazier was the star of the game with 3 TD's and 424 passing yards. Bridgewater's defense was able to slow him down with 6 sacks but that wasn't enough to make any significant difference on the outcome of the game.
Concordia (WI) is another team to enter conference play at 5-0 after beating Macalester 37-20. Concordia (WI) outplayed Macalester for three quarters of the game, but Macalester showed they were still a formidable opponent in the 2nd quarter where they scored on every possession for a total of 20 points. However, they were outscored 23-0 in the other 3 quarters and the 2nd half effort wasn't enough to get Macalester a win against an impressive Concordia (WI).
Loras falls to 3-2 losing to undefeated Curry in their final non-conference game. Loras had the better stats in first downs (23 to 16), 3rd down conversions (11/19 to 4/9), total yards (403 to 262), passing yards (223 to 146), rushing yards (170 to 116) and time of possesion (36 minutes to 23 minutes). However, one crucial stat that wasn't in Loras's favor was the final score: 16-31. A giant kick return of 81 yards by Curry WR William Briggs set up a TD at the beginning of the 3rd quarter followed just 2 plays later by Donald Zamora being the first player this season to pick off Robert Newton giving Curry another short field leading to another TD. Curry already had the lead at the start of the 3rd quarter and those additional points were just too much for Loras to recover from.

12/30
Games to watch:
California Lutheran @ East Texas Baptist
Loras @ Waynesburg


1/12/2013 12:53 AM (edited)
Bryant DIII - Season 86 Awards

Voting is now closed, thanks to all those who participated. Below are the awards and all-american team for season 86.

Davey O'Brien Award (Best QB): Lawrence Romero (Menlo)

Doak Walker Award (Best RB): Mark Lewis (Wisconsin-Stout)

Fred Biletnikoff Award (Best WR): Randy Baldwin (Menlo)

John Mackey Award (Best TE): Robert Barnard (Wisconsin-Platteville)

Dave Rimington Outland Trophy (Best OL): Curtis Schmidt (Huntingdon)

Ted Hendricks Award (Best DL): Antonio Thomas (Concordia (WI))

Dick Butkus Award (Best LB): Edward Wiley (Huntingdon)

Jim Thorpe Award (Best DB): Donald Byrne (Menlo)

Lou Groza Award (Best K): Charles Webb (Gettysburg)

Ray Guy Award (Best P): Jesse Brown (South-Sewanee)

Paul "Bear" Bryant Award (Best coach): slid64er (Wisconsin-Platteville)

The Game Award (Best game): not awarded this season

"Cinderella" Award (Biggest upset): not awarded this season

"United We Stand" Award (Best conference): ASC / MIAA


Bryant DIII Season 86 - Human Coaches All-American Team

QB: Lawrence Romero (Menlo)
RB: Mark Lewis (Wisconsin-Stout), John Gore (Gettysburg)
WR: Randy Baldwin (Menlo), Billy Rodriguez (Whittier)
TE: Robert Barnard (Wisconsin-Platteville)
OL: Curtis Schmidt (Huntingdon), Michael Wynn (Huntingdon), Billy Brown (MIT), Lawrence Douglas (Oberlin), Marvin Richardson (MIT)
DL: Antonio Thomas (Concordia (WI)), Jerome Williams (Menlo), Daniel Salazar (Ferrum), George Bush (Ferrum)
LB: Edward Wiley (Huntingdon), George Dunbar (Whittier), Robert Ingram (Loras)
DB: Donald Byrne (Menlo), Michael Jimenez (Wisconsin-Platteville), Douglas Little (Menlo), Christopher Brooks (MIT)
K: Charles Webb (Gettysburg)
P: Jesse Brown (South-Sewanee)
HC: slid64er (Wisconsin-Platteville)

Honorable Mentions: James Frazier (QB, Wisconsin-Platteville), Joe Albright (QB, Bridgewater), Bryan Branch (RB, Mount Union), Jerry Lewis (RB, Linfield), Jesus Hernandez (RB, Austin), Mike Bell (WR, MIT), Martin Stringer (WR, Susquehanna), Michael Stone (WR, Wisconsin-Platteville), Christopher Velazquez (TE, Whittier), Richard Ferguson (TE, Greenville), Charles McKenzie (OL, Gettysburg), Jimmy Napier (DL, Whitworth), Walter Wall (DL, Menlo), Timothy Jones (DL, Fairleigh Dickinson), Leo Guthrie (DL, St. Thomas), Mike Foreman (LB, Wisconsin-Platteville), Jack McCauley (LB, Austin), Louis Carter (LB, MIT), Thomas Ward (DB, Ferrum), Robert Johnson (DB, Linfield), Terry Flores (DB, Waynesburg), Russell Kennedy (K, Ferrum), Steven Martin (P, Mississippi), hallgren (HC, Gettysburg)
1/8/2013 12:08 AM (edited)
Bryant DIII - Season 86 Playoffs Preview

Going through the brackets one by one, we will first rank the teams in the individual bracket using Elkhour Power Rankings. The format is Team (overall rating, offense rating-offense rank in this bracket, defense rating-defense rank in this bracket). We will then throw in few comments, and end with Upset Alert and Prediction. We will then compare the 4 brackets and rank them among each other in terms of talent (teams average rating) and competitiveness (standard deviation to show how close the team ratings are to each other)
Sorry no hyperlinks this time as I don't have enough time :S Off We Go!

North Bracket

EPR:
1. Linfield (580, 594-1, 565-1)
2. Loras (573, 583-2, 562-2)
3. Gettysburg (566, 570-3, 562-3)
4. Colorado College (563, 566-4, 559-4)
5. Mount Union (549, 558-5, 541-6)
6. Waynesburg (544, 546-6, 541-5)
7. St. Thomas (524, 517-8, 531-7)
8. East Texas Baptist (524, 529-7, 519-8)

This is probably one of the most stacked brackets in Season 86 Bryant playoffs, featuring Gettysburg and Linfield, NC finalists in the last 2 seasons and sharing titles, Season 81 National Champions Loras, as well as other perennial contenders in Colorado College, Mount Union, and Waynesburg. Gettysburg is the only team in this bracket to make it to the playoffs 14-0, after 2 miraculous second half comebacks against Muhlenberg and Union (NY). Linfield has lost a couple of games this season, both against 'Air Attack' Menlo, and they are potentially destined to meet them a third time this season, this time in the Final Four if both teams win their respective bracket. Gettysburg and Linfield looked destined for a third consecutive meeting in the playoffs if they both win in the first round.

Upset Alert: (7) Loras vs. (2) Mount Union
Prediction: Linfield beats Colorado College to win the bracket

South Bracket

EPR:
1. California Lutheran (563, 570-2, 556-1)
2. Bridgewater (559, 574-1, 543-3)
3. Menlo (546, 538-4, 555-2)
4. Oberlin (535, 541-3, 530-5)
5. Fairleigh Dickinson (515, 498-7, 533-4)
6. Capital (515, 530-5, 500-8)
7. Macalester (512, 517-6, 507-6)
8. Whitworth (496, 490-8, 503-7)

Probably the weakest and the most surprising of brackets, in the sense of the number of "unusual" teams making to the playoffs. This is what I would call the bracket of the emerging teams in DIII Bryant: Bridgewater (one of the most improved teams this season), Fairleigh Dickinson, Capital, and Whitworth. Bridgewater only lost to Wisconsin-Platteville as part of the humans challenge, and Cal Lutheran only lost to Austin. Menlo lost a couple of games against Mount Union and Huntingdon, but they have an air attack good enough to carry them through this bracket. Macalester only lost to Linfield and Concordia, Oberlin is undefeated, and Fairleigh Dickinson beat Susquehanna twice. This bracket could turn out to be very interesting, and it is really very hard to predict!

Upset Alert: (5) Menlo vs. (4) Macalester
Prediction: Menlo beats California Lutheran to win the bracket

East Bracket:

EPR:
1. Concordia (WI) (577, 576-3, 578-2)
2. Austin (576, 575-5, 578-1)
3. MIT (574, 600-1, 549-4)
4. Wisconsin-Stout (563, 577-2, 549-3)
5. Susquehanna (557, 568-5, 545-5)
6. Trinity (TX) (553, 566-6, 540-6)
7. Curry (538, 537-7, 538-7)
8. Case Western (513, 529-8, 497-8)

This is the #2 bracket in terms of average EPR ratings, having 6 teams with overall EPR rankings above 550. A simple look at the EPR above shows that theoretically, this bracket can be clinched by anyone among Concordia, Austin, MIT, Wisconsin-Stout, Susquehanna, and Trinity (TX), all of them being regular perennial contenders recently in DIII Bryant. While MIT is ridiculously good on offense, and Wisconsin-Stout comes second, both teams lack on defense. Concordia (WI) and Austin look like the most balanced teams of this bracket in terms of EPR. Even the "underdogs" in this bracket can make something happen, Curry finishing the season 14-0, and Case Western having a really good one.
MIT finished 14-0 but didn't really face tough competition yet. Concordia were unstoppable at the beginning of the season but have been on a performance dip recently, beating Aurora by only 14, and escaping from a loss against Lakeland. Austin had their season the other way around, incurring 2 losses in the first 6 games, but they have been the hottest team in DIII since.

Upset Alert: (6) Wisconsin-Stout vs. (3) Curry
Prediction: Austin beats MIT to win the bracket

West Bracket:

EPR:
1. Huntingdon (606, 602-1, 610-1)
2. Ferrum (592, 596-2, 588-2)
3. Wisconsin-Platteville (586, 588-3, 584-3)
4. St. Olaf (561, 568-4, 554-5)
5. Merchant Marine (558, 558-7, 557-4)
6. Union (NY) (553, 567-5, 538-7)
7. King's (PA) (550, 560-6, 540-6)
8. Chicago (504, 500-8, 509-8)

Ok needless to say this is the strongest bracket, just look at those teams! Ferrum and Huntingdon might be looking at another playoff meeting, while Wisconsin-Platteville has been the team with the hot hand recently, definitely the most improved one over the last 5 seasons. Huntingdon is as ridiculously good as always, and Ferrum are hoping Michael Buckner will win a title for them before he graduates. Wisconsin-Platteville can throw the football, and they can do it very well, with a scary passing attack lead by James Frazier, Michael Stone, Ronald Macdonald, and Robert Barnard. St. Olaf made it to the Final Four last season, and Union (NY) has been considerably improving recently, as well as being so close of beating the defending National Champions Gettysburg in the CC championship game yesterday. 

Upset Alert: (5) St. Olaf vs. (4) Merchant Marine
Prediction: Ferrum beats Wisconsin-Platteville to win the bracket.

Brackets Comparison:

Ranking by talent (average of teams ratings):
1. West: 563.7
2. East: 556.4
3. North: 552.7
4. South: 530.1

Ranking by competitiveness (standard deviation of teams ratings):
1. North: 21.21
2. East: 22.13
3. South: 24.14
4. West: 31.62

Final Four Prediction:

Well, as per above, we have Linfield vs. Menlo and Ferrum vs. Austin. We know how hard it is to beat the same team twice in the same season, it's even harder to do it 3 times. Linfield will avenge their 2 losses against Menlo in the Final Four, but only to lose to Ferrum in the National Championship. This time, bugeaters11 and Michael Buckner win it all!


GL TO EVERYONE IN THE PLAYOFFS!
12/12/2012 11:38 PM
Thanks for doing this bison. This thread adds to the enjoyment and has see. A lot of success recently, so it's nice to see someone picking it up when I won't be available. GL maintaining it for season 86, I will be back around Jan 5 and should have enough time to fully contribute thereafter.
12/12/2012 11:41 PM
Things like this make people want to play in these worlds... wish this was over in Rockne.
12/18/2012 7:44 PM
I need something to keep my interest during the next 5 weeks of recruiting....can we get a "who has the best punt returner" analysis?
Something?
Anything?
12/23/2012 4:28 PM
The pre-season analysis for season 86 is up. Right now this includes the Pre-season Power Rankings and the Conference Predictions. I should be updating the daily reviews once the season begins and I hope to get the first coaches poll up before then.
12/24/2012 7:00 AM
Great job man, very nice write-up and was a pleasure to read. Thanks again for taking care of this for Season 86.
Merry Christmas everyone and GL in the upcoming season. I'll still be around the next couple of days, but then wedding on the 27th and honeymoon. Resuming GD activities around Jan 3. Hopefully Concordia (WI) are 9-0 by then, but that's not easy when we have to face 6 human coaches while we're on auto-pilot. We'll see.
12/25/2012 3:52 PM
Merry Christmas everyone! Week 1 review is up. Hope to have the Coaches Poll up soon as well
12/26/2012 1:31 AM
Good writeup  Bisoneer.. enjoyed reading it
12/26/2012 4:31 PM
Thank you! I'll have plenty more for you to read as the season advances, I just have to hope people keep enjoying it.
12/26/2012 4:35 PM
Nice work.
12/26/2012 7:59 PM
Hmmm not sure how I got included in the coaches poll.  Sorry if I made it seem like I was able to.  Just don't have the time to put in as much great effort as you guys.  I do love reading it all though. 
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All Forums > Gridiron Dynasty Football > Bryant > Bryant - Season 86 (DIII)

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