How Is Someone The Front Runner? Topic

bistiza
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Apparently a ghost team is the front runner for a recruit I'm going after.

While he is presently listed as considering no one at all (including me), his coach tells me another school is the front runner, and he's telling me he's looking at other options and right now he would say 'no' if he had to give me an answer.

How is someone else the front runner? Unless they're not being considered but are sending him some stuff, I don't get that.
9/19/2012 12:18 PM
cornfused
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"another frontrunner"?  Or a specific school?  'cause the first is just a standard "don't really care for your team yet but there's room for convincing" answer.
9/19/2012 12:57 PM
bistiza
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Okay because that's probably what it is then.

Still doesn't make sense for them to say another school is the front runner. That same message could be conveyed a little less ambiguously.
9/19/2012 1:01 PM
metsmax
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the goal is ambiguity and fuzziness
9/19/2012 1:11 PM
coach_billyg
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Posted by metsmax on 9/19/2012 1:11:00 PM (view original):
the goal is ambiguity and fuzziness
yup. better get used to it now :) its a huge part of this game, being able to boil the text BS down to the very simple meanings. WIS tends to put in 5 or 10 or 15 things that mean the same thing to keep you off their trail... although honestly, i haven't the faintest idea why (i mean, i can see adding multiple messages give things a little color, instead of having players behave like robots with a single message for a single point. but id have published the list, i dont think trying to decipher the rantings of a simulated player, instilled by a computer nerd who is probably not the master of the english language in the first place, should really be part of the game).
9/19/2012 1:18 PM
bistiza
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I went after a different player anyway - found out some things about potential I didn't like regarding the first one.
9/19/2012 2:44 PM
dahsdebater
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I don't like the fact that some of the messages are what I have to assume is intentionally misleading.  Gives the vets and people who read the forums before they play a huge advantage over noobies who take those messages at face value.  Those guys are at a big enough disadvantage just trying to learn the game.  I don't see why we'd want to confuse them as well.  Seems like it's in the best interest of the developers to keep new customers around.  In our best interest as well since it makes the game more fun, although I suppose some users might prefer less human competition because it makes the prospective rewards share per user larger...
9/19/2012 3:24 PM
point_piper
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One of the worst is not a coach e-mail but FSS message, approximately:  "Recruit likes College, but he may not be a priority for them."  That, for reasons surpassing understanding, means that College spent a truckload on Recruit.  Maybe the kid got so excited by all the attention that he now likes College more than College likes him?

Rookie Coach seeing that message would likely think College is looking elsewhere, so Rookie Coach thinks he's safe to go after Recruit.  A couple of thousand later, lesson learned.
9/19/2012 3:41 PM
coach_billyg
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Posted by point_piper on 9/19/2012 3:41:00 PM (view original):
One of the worst is not a coach e-mail but FSS message, approximately:  "Recruit likes College, but he may not be a priority for them."  That, for reasons surpassing understanding, means that College spent a truckload on Recruit.  Maybe the kid got so excited by all the attention that he now likes College more than College likes him?

Rookie Coach seeing that message would likely think College is looking elsewhere, so Rookie Coach thinks he's safe to go after Recruit.  A couple of thousand later, lesson learned.
no, that message is the low FSS category of "not that interested". sadly, these categories are almost useless outside d1, because its so hard to get enough effort built up to actually show up as highly interested.
9/19/2012 4:14 PM
point_piper
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I beg to differ, those messages are useful to a D3 coach, and a D3 recruit showing that message would be very difficult for another D3 school to shake loose.  The  message in question won't appear unless one has sunk at least a couple of grand into the recruit, a decent investment for a D3 program (which is where "Rookie Coach" would be in my example).  That message shows greater interest from the recruit than the lower end ones such as "Some attention from College, but he's keeping his options wide open" or "College is the front-runner, but the family tells us he's not sold" etc.  Above those there is "College is the front-runner -- right now."  The "may not be a priority for them" message is above all of those on the scale, but below "Seems *very* solid on College" -- which is quite rare but not unheard of in D3.  The messages are clearer when a battle is already underway, i.e. "He's definitely leaning towards playing at College."

But if I understand what you are saying, the messages are not calibrated by division?  So the "not a priority" message would be true of a D1 program that had spent the same amount I did at D3, e.g. although my 3K is a big deal for me it would be a pittance at D1, and it is measuring just the total dollars spend but not the amount as a percentage of the school's budget?

Apologies if this post is inarticulate, it's clear in my mind but it's not coming out that way!

9/19/2012 5:43 PM
dahsdebater
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point_piper, my personal experience suggests that you are very wrong.  I can almost guarantee you that all the "loose" and "tight" FSS messages are interchangeable.  You've probably just gotten unlucky with this particular one, but I'm almost 100% certain you're overthinking this one.

There are only a handful of things you can learn from FSS WOTS.  They are as follows:

strongly considering one school
less tightly considering one school (that's where "may not be a priority for them" fits in)
Leaning strongly towards one program
Leaning a bit towards one program
"Too close to call"

The first 2 apply to recruits considering only 1 program, the latter 3 are for situations in which the recruit is considering 2 or more programs.  Obviously there are some permutations of the latter 3 (IE, torn between school A and B, school C is trailing).  But in terms of the information you can get from the messages in WOTS, those 5 options are it.  You can't rank them the way you can scholarship messages.  Obviously you've tried to do so, but if you pay close attention you'll find that over the same course of events the same two loose or tight messages might switch in opposite directions.  IE in one case you get message A at 2 PM, do nothing, get the other message at 2 AM.  With another recruit of similar talent into whom you've put the same effort you might get message B at 2 PM and message A at 2 AM.  If message A and message B are "Some attention from ___, but he's keeping his options wide open" and " He likes ____, but he may not be a priority for them" or two other messages from the same category what you actually learn there is that nothing's changed in either case.
9/19/2012 6:50 PM
isack24
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I don't know the difference between "wrong" and "very wrong," but dahs is right.  The "may not be a priority message" is minimal and can easily be knocked off.
9/19/2012 7:20 PM
point_piper
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What you said is not so different from what I said, but I'm almost 100% certain there's at at least one more category.  In my experience "not a priority for them" goes between the first two categories that you listed.  It is not as strong as "*very solid*" but it is stronger than "options wide open" and similar messages.

The scenario you described with "A" and "B" may happen with "options wide open" and "very open to other offers," but it does not happen with "may not be a priority for them" unless something changes.



Edit, that was responding to dahsdebater before isack posted.  I stand by that point though, I have seen that too many times, you never get to "not a priority for them" as easily as you get just to being considered (where the "wide open to other offers" notes start).

It may be easy in D1 to knock a school off a recruit showing "not a priority for them" but it is not easy on a D3 budget.
9/19/2012 7:36 PM (edited)
point_piper
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p.s. I see you guys have a lot of D2 and/or D1 experience, and I don't doubt it's easier to knock someone off a "not a priority for them" guy with those budgets.  It's different with a D3 budget though, I learned that the hard way.  I have never seen that message without doing lots of visits, which in D3 eats up a big portion of your dough.
9/19/2012 7:35 PM (edited)
tbird9423
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I don't know who is right or wrong, but would like to know-- At D3, I just sank 3400 into a guy who had that message on him thinking it would be easy to overcome and not only did I never get considered, the player signed with the comp team very quickly before I could even spend more.  Would love to see a table on what someone thinks each of those message means and then get some conversation/debate around that.  One thing Piper was right on for sure was that I definetely thought I would easily be able to overcome that message and I was very wrong for sure. 
9/19/2012 8:16 PM
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