3/22/2012 6:35 PM
Is there a team combo possible that could win more than .500 of its games running a slow down offense and press?  They seem so counter that even a severe talent advantage would be negated.

Unless you vets on the forum have some examples...
3/22/2012 7:23 PM
regardless of team composition you're betting that you can create a sufficient advantage in turnover differential to offset what will almost certainly be disadvantaged differentials in FG% and PF/FTAs

I dont like that bet
3/23/2012 5:56 PM
I would think it is very possible if you had a defense heavy team that was also foul heavy (not that they have to be foul heavy, but we get to start playing with some of the serial foulers).  Something like:

PG 68-69 Walt Frazier
SG 85-86 Alvin Robertson (or 87-88 Michael Jordan)
SF 74-75 Julius Erving
PF 93-94 Shawn Kemp
C  92-93 Hakeem Olajuwon

I didn't spend too much time look at usage and what not, but in a slow down defense (theoretically) you would need solid defenders and you could go with the foul prone guys since they would likely not have as many possessions to commit fouls...now I am thinking of trying this crap. 
3/24/2012 9:38 AM
but they would foul more frequently than IRL because increased likelihood is a penalty of using the press and having more of such players together on the floor would increase that likelihood even more and...

wait are you messing with this guy?
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12/17/2013 7:26 PM
I've designed a slowdown/press team and entered it into an open league today.

I started by eliminating all players with FT% below .700 and Defense below 70. From there, I collected players with ORB, STL,and 3PM who are low in TO and PF by assigning values (0.7, 1, 1, -1, and -1) to the respective categories and ignoring all others (save for the .700 FT% and 70 DEF requirement). I paid attention to usage and usage points, and tiered my players accordingly (10 regulars, 2 bench warmers). Here are my draft results:

Totals per 82g
-------------------
MIN: 228.4
PTS: 99.3
FG: 36.4 / 81.6 (0.485)
3PT: 6.3 / 17.6 (0.357)
eFG%: 0.485
FT: 20.1 / 26.9 (0.747)
ORB: 16.9
TRB: 45.4
AST: 19.7
TO: 14.2
STL: 10.5
PF: 16.8
BLK: 6.6
Weighted Avg DEF: 74.7

My thinking: Slow down will lower my FG% from 0.485, but that's okay because of the offensive rebounding. If the opponents try to foul, I can hit my FTs. On the other side of the ball, my PF numbers are low (no single player averages more than 2.8 PF/82), so I don't think I'll run into foul trouble. I'll be giving up easier shots, but with a weighted-average DEF of 75, I suspect FG% will be kept in check. Meanwhile, my STLs will be increased beyond the 10.5 IRL, and I'll win the TO battle, big time. I project 10 TOs for my team and an average of 25 for the opponent. I predict to shoot worse FG%, but to have as many as 20 extra shots per game. Slow down may result in an increased number of 3pt attempts, which will also work in my favor.

We'll see how it goes.

12/18/2013 9:01 PM
i've had 55+ wins on a team running exclusively slow-down/ press before

it's not impossible, but high steal percentage are a must--on offense, i centered around Jordan and it worked fairly well

12/19/2013 1:40 AM
why would slow down affect 3pt ?   end of game strategy ?
12/19/2013 11:20 PM
yeah I don't see any reason why that would be the case (maybe in real life with Kobe pounding the ball and being forced to toss out triple teamed late clock 30 footers?) - no sim reason for sure
12/20/2013 9:43 AM
A slow down/half court defense team might work in an OL if u drafted a lot of elite defenders and Oreb.
12/29/2013 2:11 AM
I'm trying slowdown for a progressive league team, which has marginal usage.
My hypothesis is that reducing the possessions may help avoid some usage penalties.
I'll reassess after mid-season.

12/30/2013 11:51 AM
thohoops - In "real life," pace is adversely correlated with outside shooting. Old-school, pre-3-point era basketball had a lot more fast-breaking: it was the best hope for little guys to score. If they waited until the big men made it back down the court, there was nothing going inside and no three-point line to retreat to. The old game was faster. The new game is slower. Teams have more time to set up and then hit a three.

This is a list of NBA seasons with the average 3PM and 3PA / game, along with the average "pace"

Rk Season Lg 3P 3PA Pace ?
1 1973-74 NBA     107.8
2 1977-78 NBA     106.7
3 1976-77 NBA     106.5
4 1978-79 NBA     105.8
5 1975-76 NBA     105.5
6 1974-75 NBA     104.5
7 1982-83 NBA 0.5 2.3 103.1
8 1979-80 NBA 0.8 2.8 103.1
9 1985-86 NBA 0.9 3.3 102.1
10 1984-85 NBA 0.9 3.1 102.1
11 1980-81 NBA 0.5 2.0 101.8
12 1983-84 NBA 0.6 2.4 101.4
13 1981-82 NBA 0.6 2.3 100.9
14 1986-87 NBA 1.4 4.7 100.8
15 1988-89 NBA 2.1 6.6 100.6
16 1987-88 NBA 1.6 5.0 99.6
17 1989-90 NBA 2.2 6.6 98.3
18 1990-91 NBA 2.3 7.1 97.8
19 1992-93 NBA 3.0 9.0 96.8
20 1991-92 NBA 2.5 7.6 96.6
21 1993-94 NBA 3.3 9.9 95.1
22 2013-14 NBA 7.7 21.3 94.2
23 1999-00 NBA 4.8 13.7 93.1
24 1994-95 NBA 5.5 15.3 92.9
25 2009-10 NBA 6.4 18.1 92.7
26 2007-08 NBA 6.6 18.1 92.4
27 2010-11 NBA 6.5 18.0 92.1
28 2012-13 NBA 7.2 20.0 92.0
29 2006-07 NBA 6.1 16.9 91.9
30 1995-96 NBA 5.9 16.0 91.8
31 2008-09 NBA 6.6 18.1 91.7
32 2011-12 NBA 6.4 18.4 91.3
33 2000-01 NBA 4.8 13.7 91.3
34 2002-03 NBA 5.1 14.7 91.0
35 2004-05 NBA 5.6 15.8 90.9
36 2001-02 NBA 5.2 14.7 90.7
37 2005-06 NBA 5.7 16.0 90.5
38 1997-98 NBA 4.4 12.7 90.3
39 2003-04 NBA 5.2 14.9 90.1
40 1996-97 NBA 6.0 16.8 90.1
41 1998-99 NBA 4.5 13.2 88.9


12/30/2013 11:59 AM
Reporting back: It's 15 games into the season, and I'm 8-7 with a very unorthodox team. I just beat the best team in the league (by record), 98-91. That team is averaging 117 points per game.

My team is dead-last in FG% with 41.6%, but 2nd in offensive rebounding with 19 per game. I'm only allowing my opponent to shoot 77 shots per game!

I think my team is better than the 8-7 record: The first ten games, I played all of my rookies 8 minutes apiece and underplayed my starters. I went 4-6 in this stretch. Now I have minutes "saved up" for future use, and I have a good gauge of how good my rookies are. In this last game, vs. the top team in the league, I was able to push my starters. Everyone on my team is at 100%; opponents are already falling into the 90's.

One thing: I did abandon "press" after the first 10 games. My team was allowing too-high a FG%; it was ridiculous. My team is sort of built to "press" even when playing half-court, and we've been 6-1 since abandoning press. The only team who beat us in that stretch was another press team, who beat us at our own game (not one of the top teams in the league).

It is great thrill to win with an unorthodox team. Personally, I have no interest in a team of LeBron James, 2 Rodmans, and all of the other regulars. I would love to win my first title (I've been in the finals once) while finishing last in FG%! It must be so frustrating for my opponents to lose to a team shooting 37% and getting 27 rebounds -- about as frustrating as "LeBron James scores on an assist from LeBron James" is to me!

12/30/2013 12:04 PM
zora, coach D'Antoni (for one) could tell you that you have a 'post hoc ergo propter hoc' problem with your pace/3pa theory - pace changes over time have a lot more to do with the league's anti-defense rules changes and Stern's marketing plan to prop up "hero/iso" ball than increased reliance on treys - you can 7 seconds or less 3pas all day long
12/30/2013 12:37 PM
felonius - You definitely have a point. I offered the pace/3pa averages for evidence, not as a silver bullet. You are absolutely correct, though, that the slowness of the modern game cannot be 100% attributed to any single factor. I think three-point shooting is a very important factor, though, and probably the biggest (but not the only or even a majoritarian) one. I looked at the 2012-13 season, and there was virtually no correlation between 3pa and pace in the stats (which bolsters your point). Still, what I'm saying makes sense to me, and if anything, I think rule changes, officiating, etc., that you were talking about have probably sought to accommodate a faster, three-point shooting game (hero/iso ball, etc.), but it still seems to make natural sense that, normally (and with exceptions), three-point shooting teams should play slower (fewer fast breaks). Or in other words: Add a three-point line to a game and make no other changes and you'll see less inside shooting, fewer fast breaks, more set-up time.. Don't ya think?? (Of course, this wouldn't necessarily have anything to do with the Sim...)

Either way, the three-point shooting is working well for me. I'm making 7.2 3PM per game (3rd in the league), and only 30 2pt FG per game (22nd) ! I'm only allowing 77 shots per game (1st by a mile), vs a total of 89 shots for me (2nd to last, but still a HUGE disparity). When I have way more shots than my opponent, but shoot so poorly, it's important that I frequently get 3 points instead of 2.



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