All Forums > SimLeague Baseball > SimLeague Baseball > Believe It or Don't!
11/4/2012 10:36 PM (edited)
I hate jinxing one of my own players, but here's a believe it or don't...

In a '75 Prog league, Al Oliver, who in RL had 18 homeruns total that season has already hit 22 and there's still 8 games to go before the AS break. 
Now, he is playing at Cleveland Stadium which is +1 for hits and HR's, but he's probably just a prime example of how high average power guys with low BB's overperform in the SIM.



10/2/2012 5:09 PM
This MUST be a 'believe it or don't'.   1941 Jeff Heath, 1015 Gavvy Cravath, 1906 Harry Davis, and 1995 Dante Bichette, all sluggers in their own right.  However, despite all being everyday players and the team playing at the halfway point of the season at Coors, EVERY LAST ONE OF THEM are on pace to hit FEWER than their performance history average number of HRs. 

Believe it or don't!!!
10/2/2012 7:33 PM
Posted by aspenbrew on 9/30/2012 11:08:00 PM (view original):
Posted by winnetka1 on 9/25/2012 6:51:00 AM (view original):
Fatigue as it plays out in sim effects the player's defense not offense. Using a fatigued player in the field could be disastrous however using him as a dh should have no real significant effect. Is this correct?
- - - eye believe - - - that, quite possibly - - - this post - - -

- - - instead belongs - - - in - - - crazystengal 's thread - - -

- - - in THAT ongoing - - - "laff riot" - - - entitled - - - believe it, or don't ? - - -

 

B e l i e v e   i t ,  ---   o r   d o n ' t   ? ? ?
Jag
10/10/2012 1:53 AM (edited)
Is 75 PA enough to judge a batter on?

Ha ha, 'tis a foolish question, to be sure.  But the question did come up in an OL I'm in, concerning an AAA player I acquired in a trade (more on that "controversial" deal here: whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx).

The AAA batter was RL OF 1904 Mike Donlin, with RL numbers of .356/.406/.475, D-/C defense, 278 PA.  The trade was voted against by 3 owners.  When my new acquisition got off to an insanely hot start, the whining rose to a terrible crescendo.  Here were the rookie's stats after 75 PA:

32/66, 0 Doubles, 4 Triples, 1 Home Run, 8 Walks, 1 HBP for a line of .485/.547/.652

I was told I had ripped off a newbie owner, thrown the balance of the league out of whack, sinned against God and Nature, etc.  I tried to explain that 75 PA was not a statistically significant sample size.  I pointed out that the rook had just gone 7-for-7 in a game against a 0% scrub.  It mattered not a whit.  I was informed that, "75 PA is enough to judge a batter on, especially a rookie."  (The "especially a rookie" part did give me a chuckle; I still don't know what that could possibly mean.)

Anyway, after some silly bickering (and I'll accept a portion of the blame there), I eventually gave up on reading the message forum in that league.  There was no way I was going to get through to anyone.

And now?  The season is over (well, 160 games of it), and so we have a larger sample size at our disposal.   What has the rookie done since his first 75 PA?  Have a look:

63/218, 7 Doubles, 4 Triples, 1 Home Run, 9 Walks, 1 HBP for a line of .289/.320/.372

The rookie's overall line is still pretty good (.335/.376/.437), but a far cry from the stats he put up his first 75 PA. 

With 2 games remaining, he's the ROY leader. 

And the crappy player he was traded for?  He's #3 in ROY voting.

Believe It or Don't!

10/10/2012 8:38 PM
Ok, I understand what you mean in regard to the "rookie" players' first 75 PAs being a small sample size.  However, in all fairness, irrespective of your acquisition's hot start, being that you were accused of ripping off a newbie, and that the player you received was the 278 PA Donlin (a super hitter, I might add), who was the AAA player whom you traded away for him? Not that I would expect you, or any other owner, to ID AAA players for other owners when it's their own duty to know the abilities of a player whom they wish to trade away (especially when they initiate it). But even though I veto a trade only when it's CLEARLY inequitable, and being that you were getting 04 Donlin in return, I would suspect that you clearly got the better of that deal, regardless of the player you traded away. 
10/10/2012 11:58 PM
I posted a link above to a thread about the deal.  I don't think a single owner who posted in the thread said they would veto the deal on its merits (a few said they would if they were in my division, or because they vetoed all deals on principle).

As I said, my guy finished #1 in ROY voting, the other guy (RL 1959 Dave Philley) finished 3rd.  His final line was .291/.333/.392 in 336 PA.  What's more, Philley (an A+ fielder) made 0 errors all season.  My guy (a D- fielder) made 15 errors in just 60 OF starts.  Overall, I think the deal made my team a bit better, but I assume that's why all of us make deals.  I'm pretty sure there are owners out there who would veto deals even if you could show them the two players being swapped for each other were the exact same player in RL.
10/13/2012 10:11 PM
Ha ha ha!!!  I bet you're right on the comment of your last sentence.   Since I'm a hitting and pitching guy, I would've jumped at that deal, just as you did, because Donlin is clearly the better hitter.  I don't care too much about defense. My teams always lead the league in minus plays. lol
10/16/2012 1:54 AM
I just had an OL team eliminated in the 2nd round of the playoffs. All told we played 9 post-season games.  Incredibly, in one of those 9 games the starting pitcher for my opponent was NOT Addie Joss.  That's right, we only faced Joss as the opposing starter in 8 of our 9 games.

Believe It or Don't!
10/20/2012 10:12 PM
There will be a SLB upgrade soon.....
believe it or don't!!
10/21/2012 12:05 AM
Posted by crazystengel on 10/16/2012 1:54:00 AM (view original):
I just had an OL team eliminated in the 2nd round of the playoffs. All told we played 9 post-season games.  Incredibly, in one of those 9 games the starting pitcher for my opponent was NOT Addie Joss.  That's right, we only faced Joss as the opposing starter in 8 of our 9 games.

Believe It or Don't!
I just lost a DS in 4 games in a 120M league... Games 1 and 4 were both '08 Addie Joss vs. '08 Addie Joss. Addie Joss won the first game, and Addie Joss won the second game.

Believe It or Don't!
11/3/2012 12:13 AM
in the 1976 J4MS - one of our owners has Paul Siebert - his line is:
Notice his BB and Strikeout totals...BELIEVE IT OR DONT!
Player SN T G GS CG SHO W L SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO OAV OBP SLG WHIP ERA
Siebert, Paul 1976 L 61 0 0 0 1 3 1 2 128.3 365 386 342 55 195 0 .499 .603 .874 4.36 23.98
11/4/2012 10:40 PM
Posted by eastvanmungo on 11/4/2012 10:36:00 PM (view original):
I hate jinxing one of my own players, but here's a believe it or don't...

In a '75 Prog league, Al Oliver, who in RL had 18 homeruns total that season has already hit 22 and there's still 8 games to go before the AS break. 
Now, he is playing at Cleveland Stadium which is +1 for hits and HR's, but he's probably just a prime example of how high average power guys with low BB's overperform in the SIM.



Well, maybe I jinxed him, but probably he just reverted to the the norm.  11 HR's in the second half brought his grand total to 35... almost double his RL total, but nowhere near his first half rate.
11/5/2012 12:25 AM
Ever wonder what it would look like if Usain Bolt ran a marathon?

In a 100M theme league I'm in that just finished, one team shot out of the starting gate with a 36-9 record.  At that point you figure you've got a playoff spot nearly locked up, right?  117 games left in the season, and even if you're thoroughly average -- say, 58-59 -- you're going to finish 94-68, which will almost certainly get you a wild card spot, if not a division title.

As it turns out the winner in this particular team's division won 91 games.  2nd place had 89 wins, and 3rd place 85 wins.  Where did our Usain Bolt team wind up?  4th, with 82 wins.  After that 36-9 sprint, the team staggered to the finish line with a 46-71 record.

Believe It or Don't!
11/5/2012 12:43 AM
Paul Siebert finished the 1976 season with 199BB and 0 strikeouts....

Player SN T G GS CG SHO W L SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO OAV OBP SLG WHIP ERA
Siebert, Paul 1976 L 62 0 0 0 1 3 1 2 132.7 380 397 353 57 199 0 0.501 0.603 0.879 4.36 23.95
11/5/2012 5:37 AM
Posted by chargingryno on 11/5/2012 12:43:00 AM (view original):
Paul Siebert finished the 1976 season with 199BB and 0 strikeouts....

Player SN T G GS CG SHO W L SV SVO IP H R ER HR BB SO OAV OBP SLG WHIP ERA
Siebert, Paul 1976 L 62 0 0 0 1 3 1 2 132.7 380 397 353 57 199 0 0.501 0.603 0.879 4.36 23.95
Only because I put him on rest with 6 games to go!
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