This is a great thread, and should serve as a strong counter argument against the occasional conspiracy theories thrown out about WIS embedding streakiness into the algorithm, or about there being randomly generated "good/bad" versions of a player. When you control for the external variables that are present in a typical OL, most of the perceived anomalies disappear and the player stats look remarkably consistent, as you would expect from an algorithm that is based purely on the underlying stats and randomly generated probabilities.
Here's another example, from the 3000 Hits Progressive. The way this league works is that each owner takes a player with 3000 hits and progresses his career. Each season you use the actual season of your player, but twist his teammates. I have Palmeiro, so season 1 uses 86 Palmeiro and twists the rest of the 86 Cubs, etc. Through 9 seasons, Palmeiro is now on his 3rd franchise (Cubs, Rangers, Orioles). Interestingly, Jamie Moyer was his teammate in real life in 6 of those 9 seasons, and each time I have used the 2002 version of Moyer. The league is 100M, with DH and average AAA. Parks stay pretty much the same year to year. Overall caliber of competition is pretty constant year to year.
Here's six seasons of 2002 Moyer:
Player |
Lg Season |
Twist Year |
G |
GS |
CG |
SHO |
W |
L |
SV |
SVO |
IP |
H |
R |
ER |
HR |
BB |
SO |
WHIP |
ERA |
Moyer, Jamie |
1986 |
2002 |
39 |
39 |
0 |
0 |
18 |
10 |
0 |
0 |
242.0 |
253 |
114 |
109 |
39 |
39 |
101 |
1.21 |
4.05 |
Moyer, Jamie |
1987 |
2002 |
41 |
39 |
1 |
0 |
16 |
15 |
0 |
0 |
256.0 |
262 |
138 |
131 |
37 |
63 |
111 |
1.27 |
4.61 |
Moyer, Jamie |
1988 |
2002 |
37 |
37 |
0 |
0 |
19 |
12 |
0 |
0 |
236.0 |
251 |
111 |
109 |
33 |
70 |
112 |
1.36 |
4.16 |
Moyer, Jamie |
1989 |
2002 |
39 |
39 |
1 |
0 |
15 |
17 |
0 |
0 |
253.7 |
275 |
130 |
126 |
31 |
57 |
112 |
1.31 |
4.47 |
Moyer, Jamie |
1990 |
2002 |
42 |
40 |
0 |
0 |
10 |
17 |
0 |
0 |
263.7 |
298 |
147 |
126 |
41 |
59 |
122 |
1.35 |
4.30 |
Moyer, Jamie |
1994 |
2002 |
43 |
38 |
0 |
0 |
12 |
11 |
0 |
0 |
259.7 |
262 |
129 |
124 |
41 |
75 |
132 |
1.30 |
4.30 |
Moyer, Jamie |
Total |
|
241 |
232 |
2 |
0 |
90 |
82 |
0 |
0 |
1511.0 |
1601 |
769 |
725 |
222 |
363 |
690 |
1.30 |
4.32 |