All Forums > Hoops Dynasty Basketball > Crum > Anything D2 Thread
11/23/2012 1:14 PM


I’m showing the way I categorize players into my rating system.  The threshold for having a championship level team has generally been around 25 points.  The rankings are:

1)      Role Player

2)      Quality Backup

3)      Capable Starter

4)      Good

5)      Star

PG) Ben Mukai (Sr) Good        

Jack Stevens (Sr) Good

Arthur Turner (Soph) Capable Starter

Claud Bruzewski (Fr) Role Player

Sylvester Dickerson (Fr) Role Player

SF) Willie Purtell (Sr) Good

PF) Barry Denison (Jr) Quality Backup

“Old School” Wilfred Beamer (Soph) Role Player

John Hatch (Fr) Role Player

Joseph Kearns (Fr) Role Player

C) Ricky Ricky Humphreys (Soph) Star

Terrance Persinger (Fr) Capable Starter

That adds up to 30

11/23/2012 1:14 PM

There are 18 teams with the grade of 25 or higher in my ranking system.  Usually I determine a team that starts at 25+ to mean they have a chance at a championship. 

1-#3-Lincoln-38

2-#4-Wilmington-33

3-#5-Incarnate Word-31

4-#6-Oklahoma Panhandle St.-30

5(t)-#1-Fort Lewis-29

5(t)-#2-Mount Olive-29

5(t)-#8-S.W. Minnesota St.-29

8-#11-Henderson St.-27

9(t)-#9-Bemidji St.-26

9(t)-#10-Missouri, St. Louis-26

9(t)-#13-Lewis-26

9(t)-#19-Shippensburg U.-26

9(t)-#21-Bellarmine-26

9(t)-NR-Drury-26

9(t)-NR-Texas A&M, Kingsville-26

16(t)-#12-Tiffin-25

16(t)-#20-Sonoma St.-25

16(t)-#24-Cal St. Poly-25

12/5/2012 11:55 PM

    Conference Preview
Team Ratings

1. Lincoln-40

2(t). Incarnate Word-31

2(t). OPSU-31

4. Drury-28

5(t). Montevallo-26

5(t). St. Mary’s-26

7(t). N. Alabama-24

7(t). St. Edward’s-24

9. W, Alabama-22

10. Valdosta St.-20

11. W. Florida-18

12. Rockhurst-17

Conference Stars

PG-                 William Abron (Sr)-W. Alabama

                        Peter Bruce (Sr)-Linoln

                        Chris Cavitt (Sr)-Drury

                        Adam Hodgkinson (Soph)-Incarnate Word

                        Ben Mukai (Sr)-OPSU

                        Jack Stevens (Sr)-OPSU

SG-                 Tom Baird (Sr)-Montevallo

                        Roland Baker (Jr)-W. Alabama

                      Lonnie Brown (Sr)-Lincoln

                      Daniel Masson (Sr)-St. Edward’s

                      Bryan Sak (Sr)-N. Alabama

SF-                  Norman Bartel (Sr)-St. Mary’s

                        Willie Purtell (Sr)-OPSU

PF-                  Franklin Collins (Sr)-Incarnate Word

                        Anthony Robinson (Sr)-Drury

C-                    Charles Davie (Sr)-Lincoln

                      Ricky Humphreys (Sr)-OPSU

                      Patrick Jackson (Sr)-Lincoln

                        Richard Powell (Sr)-N. Alabama

                        Ron Powers (Jr)-Incarnate Word

                        William Sutton (Jr)- Lincoln

Conference Superstars

PG-                 Chris Cavitt (Sr)-Drury

SG-                 Lonnie Brown (Sr)-Lincoln

SF-                  Norman Bartel (Sr)-St. Mary’s

C-                    Ricky Humphreys (Sr)-OPSU

12/6/2012 12:01 AM (edited)
Conference stars in pictures (1st thing that comes up in google search.  Interesting that some have changed just since last season)
William Abron (W. Alabama)  
Peter Bruce (Lincoln)  
Chris Cavit(Drury) 
Adam Hodgkinson (Incarnate Wordd) 
Ben Mukai(OPSU)  
Jack Stevens (OPSU) 
Tom Baird (Montevallo) 

12/5/2012 11:57 PM
Pictures cont...
Roland Baker (W. Alabama) 
Lonnie Brown (Lincoln) 
Daniel Masson (St. Edward's) 
Bryan Sak (N. Alabama) 
Norman Bartel (St. Mary's) 
Willie Purtell (OPSU) 
Franklin Collins (Incarnate Word) 
Anthony Robinson (Drury) 

12/5/2012 11:57 PM
Pictures Cont...
Charles Davie (Lincoln) 
Ricky Humphreys (OPSU) 
Patrick Jackson (Lincoln) 
Richard Powell (N. Alabama) 
Ron Powers (Incarnate Word) 
William Sutton (Lincoln) 
12/6/2012 9:11 AM
Lincoln with 38... wow thats the highest ive seen in your rankings TW48-1
12/6/2012 1:19 PM
Out of curiosity, do you want to lay out exactly how you rated my players?
12/6/2012 2:49 PM
Posted by backboy13 on 12/6/2012 1:19:00 PM (view original):
Out of curiosity, do you want to lay out exactly how you rated my players?
I have a few different ratings sets that I run through formulas.  I have one for guards, one for sf's, one for the general forward type, and one for traditional bigs.  Whichever one a player rates highest in is what i use.  I probably need to add a couple more, but haven't gotten around to doing it yet.  They are all weighted and scaled so that the each category has the same ceiling.  The highest point total possible is around 2200  The 1s in my ratings are 1000 and below, 2s are 1000 to >1100, 3s are 1100 to >1200, 4s are 1200 to >1300, and 5s are 1300+.  For instance, my center is in the low 1300s, but he receives a 5.  This guy is also a 5 even though he is over 1400 in my formula. 
So, obviously there is some room for error and i've noticed it especially benefits my team since I recruit to the formula.  That and I think raw talent is probably about 40% of team building.  I'd say the other 60% is 40% cohesion and 20% is game planning.  I'm thinking about using it to predict the NT this season.  If I had to guess it would be 60-75% correct in measuring that, so, there is obviously a lot of factors in play.  I've thought about getting together with people to come up with a formula to measure team cohesion, but haven't done that yet.

Sorry for that side information, but to your team.  I don't save each teams breakdown, but i can show you where it would place your guys right now and i'll place *'s by guys who will go up by the end of the year:

The rankings are:

1)      Role Player

2)      Quality Backup

3)      Capable Starter

4)      Good

5)      Star

PG) Wayne Cline (Sr) Star        

Henry Wilson (Sr) Capable Starter

James Reasoner (Soph) Capable Starter *(one of him and Wilson will advance to the next level by the end of the season)

William Steward (Soph) Role Player*

Michael Bryant (Fr) Quality Backup

SF) Matthew Allen (Jr) Capable Starter

Scott Yates (Soph) Role Player

Alan Berndt (Fr) Role Player

PF) Harvey Tesch (Sr) Good

James Richardson (Soph) Quality Backup

C) Alan Jude (Jr) Capable Starter

Lorenzo Armor (Fr) Role Player (redshirts are role players by default)

That adds up to 29 and will be a 31 or 32 by the end of the year.

Also, I determine a 2 or better as capable of competing at an elite level.  So, you are 8 deep and will be 9 deep by the end of the year.

This also means you rate highest out of teams coached by the anti-Christ 

12/6/2012 3:26 PM
Richardson and Stewart have been producing above their indicated levels, probably due to playing against backups, but I'd be interested in seeing your formulas!
12/7/2012 2:04 PM
I love that Hodgkinson's photo came from "mugshots.com".
12/29/2012 1:53 AM (edited)

Ok so I said I was going to see how well my formula worked at predicting game s in the NT.  I forgot to do the 1st round so I’ll go back and do that now.  I’ll show 2 attributes for 1st round games and 1 attribute for 2nd round games (2nd) will be added after games are played).  1st attribute is point differential in my formula.  This should not correspond to actual score, but will more like a confidence rating.  The 2nd will be the actual score.

Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
1v16 Lincoln/Michigan Tech 23-Lincoln 99-73 Lincoln (1-0)
3v14 Fort Lewis/Bridgeport 16-Fort Lewis 96-75 Fort Lewis (2-0)
2v15 Mount Olive/St. Leo 13-Mount Olive 70-55 Mount Olive (3-0)
2v15 Wilmington/Emporia St. 11-Wilmington 89-75 Wilmington (4-0)
1v16 Incarnate Word/Humboldt St. 11-Incarnate Word 68-59 Incarnate Word (5-0)
5v12 S.W. Minn St./Mercyhurst 10-S.W. Minn St. 64-61 Mercyhurst (5-1)
4v13 TA&M, Kingsville/Univ. of the Sciences 10-TA&M, Kingsville 62-59 Univ. of the Sciences (5-2)
4v13 OK Panhandle St./UP, Johnstown 10-OK Panhandle St. 96-81 OK Panhandle St. (6-2)
1v16 CSU, Stanislaus/Florida Tech 9-CSU, Stanislaus 79-77 CSU, Stanislaus (7-2)
4v13 St. Edward's/Concordia, St. Paul 8-St. Edward's 73-59 St. Edward's (8-2)
3v14 Drury/St. Anslem 8-Drury 66-50 Drury (9-2)
2v15 Barry/Cal. Davis 7-Barry 95-85 Barry (10-2)
3v14 Shippensburg/D.C. 7-Shippensburg 98-76 Shippensburg (11-2)
1v16 Sonoma St./Clarion 6-Sonoma St. 89-52 Sonoma St. (12-2)
8v9 N. Florida/Kentucky St. 5-N. Florida 75-71 Kentucky St. (12-3)
3v14 Bellarmine/Longwood 5-Bellarmine 74-69 Bellarmine (13-3)
8v9 UA, Monticello/CSU, Dominguez Hills 4-UA, Monticello 93-90 UA, Monticello (14-3)
7v10 Henderson St./Lees-McRae 4-Henderson St. 75-67 Henderson St. (15-3)
8v9 Tiffin/UPR, Rio Piedras 4-Tiffin 75-68 Tiffin (16-3)
4v13 Oakland City/Charleston 4-Oakland City 102-77 Oakland City (17-3)
5v12 UM, St. Louis/Ohio Valley 3-UM, St. Louis 67-63 Ohio Valley (17-4)
7v10 Lewis/San Francisco St. 3-Lewis 86-79 Lewis (18-4)
6v11 Assumption/Catawba 2-Catawba 85-74 Assumption (18-5)
2v15 Bemidji St./St. Mary's 2-Bemidji St. 67-61 Bemidji St. (19-5)
6v11 Shepherd/Washburn 1-Shepherd 90-84(OT)-Shepherd (20-5)
7v10 W. Alabama/St. Cloud St. 1-St. Cloud St. 65-57 St. Cloud St. (21-5)
5v12 New Haven/W. Georgia 1-New Haven 68-53 New Haven (22-5)
7v10 Fayetteville St./Co. School of Mines 1-Fayetteville St. 68-54 Fayetteville St. (23-5)
6v11 Tampa/UN, Omaha 1-Tampa 70-63 Un, Omaha (23-6)
5v12 Cal St. Poly/Metropolitan St. 1-Metropolitan St. 101-89 Metropolitan St. (24-6)
6v11 LIU, Southampton/N. Alabama 1-LIU, Southampton 86-77 LIU, Southampton (25-6)
8v9 Wingate/Tarleton St. Push 67-62 Tarleton St. (25-6-1)
6v3 Shepherd/Fort Lewis 11-Fort Lewis  
1v8 Lincoln/UA, Monticello 9-Lincoln  
1v9 Sonoma St./Tarleton St. 8-Sonoma St.  
7v2 Henderson St./Wilmington 8-Wilmington  
1v9 CSU, Stanislaus/Kentucky St. 7-CSU, Stanislaus  
5v4 New Haven/OK Panhandle St. 6-OK Panhandle St.  
6v3 Assumption/Bellarmine 6-Bellarmine  
7v2 Fayetteville St./Bemidji St. 5-Bemidji St.  
11v3 UN, Omaha/Drury 5-Drury  
1v8 Incarnate Word/Tiffin 5-Incarnate Word  
6v3 LIU, Southampton/Shippensburg 5-Shippensburg  
12v4 Ohio Valley/St. Edward's 4-St. Edward's  
7v2 Lewis/Mount Olive 4-Mount Olive  
12v4 Metropolitan St./Oakland City 2-Metropolitan St.  
12v13 Mercyhurst/Univ. of the Sciences 1-Mercyhurst  
10v2 St. Cloud St./Barry Push  

I did well for the 1st set of games but expect much worse records as the talent differentials shrink.  Still my 25-6-1 is better than following the seeds 23-9.  That said even one tourney will be a low sample size.

12/29/2012 2:19 PM
Round 2/Sweet 16
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
6v3 Shepherd/Fort Lewis 11-Fort Lewis 108-73 Fort Lewis (26-6-1)
1v8 Lincoln/UA, Monticello 9-Lincoln 86-70 Lincoln (27-6-1)
1v9 Sonoma St./Tarleton St. 8-Sonoma St. 52-50 Sonoma St. (28-6-1)
7v2 Henderson St./Wilmington 8-Wilmington 60-50 Wilmington (29-6-1)
1v9 CSU, Stanislaus/Kentucky St. 7-CSU, Stanislaus 80-70 CSU, Stanislaus (30-6-1)
5v4 New Haven/OK Panhandle St. 6-OK Panhandle St. 68-60 OK Panhandle St. (31-6-1)
6v3 Assumption/Bellarmine 6-Bellarmine 64-41 Bellarmine (32-6-1)
7v2 Fayetteville St./Bemidji St. 5-Bemidji St. 64-54 Bemidji St. (33-6-1)
11v3 UN, Omaha/Drury 5-Drury 69-55 Drury (34-6-1)
1v8 Incarnate Word/Tiffin 5-Incarnate Word 67-60 Incarnate Word (35-6-1)
6v3 LIU, Southampton/Shippensburg 5-Shippensburg 99-92(OT) Shippensburg (36-6-1)
12v4 Ohio Valley/St. Edward's 4-St. Edward's 63-56(OT) Ohio Valley (36-7-1)
7v2 Lewis/Mouth Olive 4-Mount Olive 80-62 Mount Olive (37-7-1)
12v4 Metropolitan St./Oakland City 2-Metropolitan St. 78-64 Oakland City (37-8-1)
12v13 Mercyhurst/Univ. of the Sciences 1-Mercyhurst 54-53 Univ. of the Sciences (37-9-1)
10v2 St. Cloud St./Barry Push 81-80 St. Cloud St. (37-9-2)
1v13 Lincoln/Univ. of the Sciences 17-Lincoln  
1v12 Sonoma St./Ohio Valley 9-Sonoma St.  
3v2 Drury/Wilmington 8-Wilmington  
3v10 Fort Lewis/St. Cloud St. 6-Fort Lewis  
1v4 Incarnate Word/Oakland City 5-Incarnate Word  
3v2 Shippensburg/Mount Olive 5-Mount Olive  
1v4 CSU, Stanislaus/OK Panhandle St. 3-OK Panhandle St.  
3v2 Bellarmine/Bemidji St. 3-Bemidji St.  

So, i'm up to 37-9-2(80.43%).  The seeding is 36-12(75%).  My game is one that I think shows that my teams are not as well judged because I recruit directly to this formula.  So, i'm overvalued 2-3 points most seasons.  That put with how the opposing team is set up makes me believe I am not actually more likely to win, but have probably a 1/3 chance of winning and a 1/4 chance of being blown out.
12/30/2012 2:59 AM
Sweet 16/elite 8
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
1v13 Lincoln/Univ. of the Sciences 17-Lincoln 61-77 Lincoln (38-9-2)
1v12 Sonoma St./Ohio Valley 9-Sonoma St. 68-66(OT) Ohio Valley (38-10-2)
3v2 Drury/Wilmington 8-Wilmington 47-35 Wilmington (39-10-2)
3v10 Fort Lewis/St. Cloud St. 6-Fort Lewis 90-70 Fort Lewis (40-10-2)
1v4 Incarnate Word/Oakland City 5-Incarnate Word 73-54 Incarnate Word (41-10-2)
3v2 Shippensburg/Mount Olive 5-Mount Olive 75-60 Mount Olive (42-10-2)
1v4 CSU, Stanislaus/OK Panhandle St. 3-OK Panhandle St. 82-75 OK Panhandle St. (43-10-2)
3v2 Bellarmine/Bemidji St. 3-Bemidji St. 73-63 Bellarmine (43-11-2)
12v2 Ohio Valley/Wilmington 15-Wilmington  
1v3 Lincoln/Fort Lewis 7-Lincoln  
4v3 OK Panhandle St./Bellarmine 5-OK Panhandle St.  
1v2 Incarnate Word/Mount Olive 1-Mount Olive  

I'm at 43-11-2(79.67) and seeding is 41-15(73.21).  Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow as my formula is picking 2 upsets, but both with low confidence.  Ohio Valley has pulled up upsets when I had 3, 4, and now 9 confidence points on the opposing team.  Will be interesting to see if they can cover the 15 confidence points versus Wilmington. 
12/31/2012 11:58 AM
Elite 8/Final4
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
12v2 Ohio Valley/Wilmington 15-Wilmington 54-49 Wilmington (44-11-2)
1v3 Lincoln/Fort Lewis 7-Lincoln 92-83 Lincoln (45-11-2)
4v3 OK Panhandle St./Bellarmine 5-OK Panhandle St. 79-78 Bellarmine (45-12-2)
1v2  Incarnate Word/Mount Olive 1-Mount Olive 70-63 Incarnate Word (45-13-2)
1v3 Lincoln/Bellarmine 11-Lincoln  
2v1 Wilmington/Incarnate Word 3-Wilmington Formatting Screwed Up
Title Possibilities
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
3v2 Bellarmine/Wilmington 8-Wilmington  
1v1 Lincoln/Incarnate Word 6-Lincoln  
3v1 Bellarmine/Incarnate Word 5-Incarnate Word  
1v2 Lincoln/Wilmington 3-Lincoln  

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All Forums > Hoops Dynasty Basketball > Crum > Anything D2 Thread

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