All Forums > Hoops Dynasty Basketball > Crum > Anything D2 Thread
1/1/2013 5:07 AM
Very interesting posts!
1/2/2013 3:01 AM
Thanks al

Final 4
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
1v3 Lincoln/Bellarmine 11-Lincoln 82-69 Lincoln (46-13-2)
2v1 Wilmington/Incarnate Word 3-Wilmington 60-58 Wilmington (47-13-2)
1v2 Lincoln/Wilmington 3-Lincoln 61-60 Lincoln (48-13-2)
 So, I ended 48-13-2(78.69%) to the seeding 47-16(74.6).  That's about the differential i'd expect so i'm happy to see that there seems to be some validity to it although it is a very small sample size (as far as games we didn't agree upon).  Here's the data so far which again has a sample size issue, but could be somewhat helpful after 4 or 5 tourneys.
Formula Pt Diff % favorite wins avg. pt diff sample size
1 66.67 4.78 6
2 33.33 -6.33 3
3 66.67 0.5 6
4 83.33 10.17 6
5 77.78 7.22 9
6 100 22 4
7 100 12.75 4
8 100 10.8 5
9 66.67 6 3
10 33.33 3 3
11 100 17.75 4
12 0 0 0
13 100 15 1
14 0 0 0
15 100 5 1
16 100 21 1
17 100 16 1
18 0 0 0
19 0 0 0
20 0 0 0
21 0 0 0
22 0 0 0
23 100 26 1

1/13/2013 6:19 PM

I’m showing the way I categorize players into my rating system.  The threshold for having a championship level team has generally been around 25 points.  The rankings are:

1)      Role Player

2)      Quality Backup

3)      Capable Starter

4)      Good

5)      Star

PG) Jack Stevens (Sr/5) Good

Arthur Turner (Jr) Good

Sylvester Dickerson (Soph) Quality Backup

Samuel McSharry (Fr) Role Player

SF) Robert Dunn (Fr) Role Player

PF) Barry Denison (Sr) Capable Starter

John Hatch (Soph) Quality Backup

Wilfred Beamer (Jr) Quality Backup

Joseph Kearns (Soph) Quality Backup

Clarence Conrad (Fr) Role Player

Michael Wiggins (Fr) Role Player

C) Terrance Persinger (Sr) Capable Starter

That adds up to 26

1/13/2013 6:19 PM

There are 16 teams with the grade of 25 or higher in my ranking system.  Usually I determine a team that starts at 25+ to mean they have a chance at a championship. 

1(t)-#2-Wilmington-31

1(t)-#11-Sonoma St.-31

3-#1-CSU, Dominguez Hills-29

4(t)-#3-UA, Monticello-28

4(t)-#5-Bemidji St.-28

4(t)-#8-Mount Olive-28

7-#10-Montevallo-27

8(t)-#4-Eckerd-26

8(t)-#9-Oklahoma Panhandle St.-26

8(t)-#17-S.W. Minnesota St.-26

11(t)-#6-Fayetteville St.-25

11(t)-#7-Kuztown U.-25

11(t)-#13-Newberry-25

11(t)-#16-Shippensburg U.-25

11(t)-#18-CSU, Stanislaus-25

11(t)-NR-Lincoln-25

1/13/2013 8:23 PM
This year seems very balanced... Would you mind showing me how you broke down my roster?
1/14/2013 12:16 PM (edited)

The rankings are (for Shippensburg U.):

1)      Role Player

2)      Quality Backup

3)      Capable Starter

4)      Good

5)      Star

PG) James Reasoner (Jr) Good

William Stewart (Jr) Quality Backup (will move up by end of season)

Michael Bryant (Soph) Capable Starter (may move up by end of season)

SG) Gary Blevins (Jr) Capable Starter (may move up by end of season)

SF) Matthew Allen (Sr) Good

Scott Yates (Jr) Role Player (is literally 1 pt away from next level)

Alan Berndt (Soph) Role Player (possible but unlikely to move up)

Rodney Howell (Fr) Role Player

PF) James Richardson (Jr) Quality Backup (may move up by end of the season)

C) Alan Jude (Sr) Capable Starter (probably will move up by end of the season)

Lorenzo Armor (Fr) Role Player

William Beresford (Fr) Role Player

That adds up to 25

So, I see them in the 27-32 range by the end of the year (I’d guess at 30).
Edit:Actually that adds up to 26.  I had to go back and look through.  Luckily I can actually add and Allen must have just moved up.  Thought I was going crazy for a second.

1/23/2013 4:21 PM (edited)

    Conference Preview
Team Ratings

1(t). Montevallo-30

1(t). OPSU-30

3. St. Mary’s-27

4. Incarnate Word-26

5(t). Drury-25

5(t). Lincoln-25

5(t). W. Alabama-25

8. N. Alabama-23

9(t). St. Edward’s-20

9(t). Valdosta St.-20

9(t). W. Florida-20

12. Rockhurst-17

Conference Stars

PG-                 Robert Bator (Sr)-Lincoln

                        John German (Jr)-Rockhurst

                        David Gillam (Sr)-St. Edward’s

                        Adam Hodgkinson (Jr)-Incarnate Word

                        William Ritz (Sr)-Lincoln

                        Jack Stevens (Sr/5)-OPSU

                        Arthur Turner (Jr)-OPSU

                        Ralph Zirk (Jr)-Drury

SG-                 Tom Baird (Sr/5)-Montevallo

                        Roland Baker (Sr)-W. Alabama

                        David Boisvert (Sr)-St. Mary’s

                        William Reed (Sr)-Montevallo

PF-                  Nicholas Hale (Sr)-Drury

C-                    Gilbert Cremeans (Jr)-Drury

                        Chad Critchon (Sr)-St. Mary’s

                        Donald Graff (Sr)-Valdosta St.

                        Terrance Persinger (Sr)-OPSU

                        Ron Powers (Sr)-Incarnate Word

                        William Sutton (Sr)-Lincoln

Conference Superstars

PG-                 Adam Hodgkinson (Jr)-Incarnate Word

                        Jack Stevens (Sr/5)-OPSU

                        Arthur Turner (Jr)-OPSU

SG-                 Tom Baird (Sr/5)-Montevallo

                        Roland Baker (Sr)-W. Alabama

1/23/2013 4:26 PM
Conference stars in pictures (1st thing that comes up in google search.  Interesting that some have changed just since last season)
Robert Bator (Lincoln) 

John German (Rockhurst) 
David Gillam (St. Edward's) 
Adam Hodgkinson (Incarnate Word) 
William Ritz (Lincoln) 
Jack Stevens (OPSU) 
Arthur Turner (OPSU) 
Ralph Zirk (Drury) 
Tom Baird (Montevallo) 
Roland Baker (W. Alabama) 
David Boisvert (St. Mary's) 
William Reed (Montevallo) 
Nicholas Hale (Drury) 
Gilbert Cremeans (Drury) 
Chad Critchon (St. Mary's) 
Donald Graff (Valdosta St.) 
1/23/2013 4:27 PM
Cont...
Terrance Persinger (OPSU) 
Ron Powers (Incarnate Word) 
William Sutton (Lincoln) 
2/15/2013 3:08 PM
This is probably the hardest tournament to predict in awhile.  There's a lot of mediocre teams this year.  For instance, my team is probably a 3-4 seed talent most years but this year I got a 1 seed.  Here's the data from last year:
Formula Pt Diff % favorite wins avg. pt diff sample size
1 66.67 4.78 6
2 33.33 -6.33 3
3 66.67 0.5 6
4 83.33 10.17 6
5 77.78 7.22 9
6 100 22 4
7 100 12.75 4
8 100 10.8 5
9 66.67 6 3
10 33.33 3 3
11 100 17.75 4
12 0 0 0
13 100 15 1
14 0 0 0
15 100 5 1
16 100 21 1
17 100 16 1
18 0 0 0
19 0 0 0
20 0 0 0
21 0 0 0
22 0 0 0
23 100 26 1

Here's predictions for tomorrow.  I may miss tomorrow because i'll be out of town and may not have access to anything but my phone internet wise. 
Seed Teams Formula Pt DIff Actual Score
1v16 OK Panhandle St./Augusta St. 20-OK Panhandle St.  
1v16 Sonoma St./Albany St. 19-Sonoma St.  
2v15 CSU Dominguez Hills/Barton 15-CSU, Dominguez Hills  
3v14 Wilmington/Henderson St. 13-Wilmington  
4v13 Mount Olive/St. Joseph's (IN) 12-Mount Olive  
2v15 Shippensburg U./LIU, Southampton 10-Shippensburg U.  
3v14 S.W. Minnesota St./N.W. Nazarene 9-S.W. Minnesota St.  
5v12 Cal Davis/Montana St., Billings 9-Cal Davis  
1v16 CSU, Stanislaus/Assumption 9-CSU, Stanislaus  
7v10 Bemidji St./Charleston 8-Bemidji St.  
7v10 Fayetteville St./San Francisco St. 8-Fayetteville St.  
4v13 W. Alabama/UP, Johnstown 5-W. Alabama  
2v15 Bellarmine/Ferris St. 5-Bellarmine  
5v12 Emporia St./W. Liberty St. 5-Emporia St.  
5v12 Kutztown U./Wingate 5-Kutztown U.  
5v12 St. Edward's/West Georgia 4-West Georgia  
7v10 Oakland City/Cal. San Diego 4-Cal. San Diego  
6v11 Barry/N. Florida 4-Barry  
6v11 Montevallo/Shaw 4-Montevalo  
4v13 Virginia St./Shepherd 3-Virginia St.  
6v11 Incarnate Word/CSU, Los Angeles 2-CSU, Los Angeles  
3v14 N. Greenville/Livingstone 2-N. Greenville  
8v9 St. Mary's (TX)/St. Cloud St. 2-St. Mary's (TX)  
8v9 N. Kentucky/TAMU, Kingsville 2-TAMU, Kingsville  
4v13 Ohio Valley/Lynn 2-Ohio Valley  
8v9 Eckerd/Lewis 1-Eckerd  
2v15 W. Florida/Tiffin 1-W. Florida  
1v16 UA, Monticello/Metropolitan St. 1-UA, Monticello  
8v9 Lincoln/Tampa 1-Lincoln  
6v11 New Haven/Catawba Push  
3v14 Drury/S. Arkansas Push  
7v10 Humboldt St./N. Alabama Push  


2/16/2013 10:02 AM
First/Second Rounds
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
1v16 OK Panhandle St./Augusta St. 20-OK Panhandle St. 93-73 OK Panhandle St. (1-0)
1v16 Sonoma St./Albany St. 19-Sonoma St. 79-48 Sonoma St. (2-0)
2v15 CSU, Dominguez Hills/Barton 15-CSU, Dominguez Hills 83-51 CSU, Dominguez Hills (3-0)
3v14 Wilmington/Henderson St.. 13-Wilmington 88-82 Henderson St. (3-1)
4v13 Mount Olive/St. Joseph's (IN) 12-Mount Olive 90-88 St. Joseph's (IN) (3-2)
2v15 Shippensburg U./LIU, Southampton 10-Shippensburg U. 98-76 Shippensburg U. (4-2)
3v14 S.W. Minnesota St./N.W. Nazarene 9-S.W. Minnesota St. 72-58 S.W. Minnesota St. (5-2)
5v12 Cal. Davis/Montana St., Billings 9-Cal. Davis 102-85 Cal. Davis (6-2)
1v16 CSU, Stanislaus/Assumption 9-CSU, Stanislaus 77-66 CSU, Stanislaus (7-2)
7v10 Bemidji St./Charleston 8-Bemidji St. 67-65 Bemidji St. (8-2)
7v10 Fayetteville St./San Francisco St. 8-Fayetteville St. 84-69 Fayetteville St. (9-2)
4v13 W. Alabama/UP, Johnstown 5-W. Alabama 63-57 W. Alabama (10-2)
2v15 Bellarmine/Ferris St.  5-Bellarmine 82-76 (OT) Ferris St. (10-3)
5v12 Emporia St./W. Liberty St. 5-Emporia St. 89-83 W. Liberty St. (10-4)
5v12 Kutztown U./Wingate 5-Kutztown U. 114-69 Kutztown U. (11-4)
5v12 St. Edward's/West Georgia 4-West Georgia 87-78 West Georgia (12-4)
7v10 Oakland City/Cal. San Diego 4-Cal. San Diego 87-77 Cal. San Diego (13-4)
6v11 Barry/N. Florida 4-Barry 61-58 N. Florida (13-5)
6v11 Montevallo/Shaw 4-Montevallo 90-74 Shaw (13-6)
4v13 Virginia St./Shepherd 3-Virginia St. 74-69 Shepherd (13-7)
3v14 Incarnate Word/CSU, Los Angeles 2-CSU, Los Angeles 59-49 Incarnate Word (13-8)
3v14 N. Greenville/Livingstone 2-N. Greenville 83-60 N. Greenville (14-8)
8v9 St. Mary's (TX)/St. Cloud St. 2-St. Mary's (TX) 67-52 St. Cloud St. (14-9)
8v9 N. Kentucky/TAMU, Kingsville 2-TAMU, Kingsville 75-64 TAMU, Kingsville (15-9)
4v13 Ohio Valley/Lynn 2-Ohio Valley 72-67 Ohio Valley (16-9)
8v9 Eckerd/Lewis 1-Eckerd 71-66 Lewis (16-10)
2v15 W. Florida/Tiffin 1-W. Florida 83-80 Tiffin (16-11)
1v16 UA, Monticello/Metroploitan St. 1-UA, Monticello 81-72 UA. Monticello (17-11)
8v9 Lincoln/Tampa 1-Lincoln 80-70 Tampa (17-12)
6v11 New Haven/Catawba Push 66-64 New Haven (17-12-1)
3v14 Drury/S. Arkansas Push 77-73 (OT) Drury (17-12-2)
7v10 Humboldt St./N. Alabama Push 72-82 Humboldt St. (17-12-3)
7v2 Humboldt St./CSU, Dominguez Hilla 11-CSU. Dominguez Hills  
1v9 Sonoma St./Lewis 10-Sonoma St.  
7v15 Bemidji St./Ferris St. 9-Bemidji St.  
12v13 West Georgia/Shepherd 7-West Georgia  
1v9 New Haven/S.W. Minnesota St, 6-S.W. Minnesota St.  
1v9 UA, Monticello Tampa 6-UA, Monticello  
11v14 Shaw/Henderson St. 6-Shaw  
10v15 Cal. San Diego/Tiffin 5-Cal. San Deigo  
11v3 N. Florida/Drury 5-Drury  
1v9 OK Panhandle St./TAMU, Kingsville 5-OK Panhandle St.  
1v9 CSU, Stanislaus/St. Cloud St. 4-CSU, Stanislaus  
12v13 W. Liberty St./St. Joseph's (IN) 4-St. Joseph's (IN)  
5v4 Kutztown U./Ohio Valley 3-Kutztown U.  
5v4 Cal. Davis/W. Alabama 2-Cal. Davis  
6v3 Incarnate Word/N. Greenville 2-Incarnate Word  
7v2 Fayetteville St./Shippensburg U. Push  

Well, I knew it would be fairly unpredictable, but it was even more so than I expected.  There were two upsets that were bigger than any upset last year.  Also, I probably look a little worse since the seeding won all the push games and there was an average of 4 pt diff at the end of regulation in those games.  Anyways, I went 17-12-3(58.62%) (that's 20% less than last season if you want an example of how wide open this tournament is) to the seeding's 18-14(56.25%)

2/17/2013 6:06 PM
Second Round/Sweet 16
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
7v2 Humboldt St./CSU, Dominguez Hills 11-CSU, Dominguez Hills 76-62 CSU, Dominguez Hills (18-12-3)
1v9 Sonoma St./Lewis 10-Sonoma St. 62-51 Sonoma St. (19-12-3)
7v15 Bemidji St./Ferris St. 9-Bemidji St. 71-51 Bemidji St. (20-12-3)
12v13 West Georgia/Shepherd 7-West Georgia 60-50 Shepherd (20-13-3)
6v3 New Haven/S.W. Minnesota St. 6-S.W. Minnesota St. 85-75 (OT) S.W. Minnesota St. (21-13-3)
1v9 UA, Monticello/Tampa 6-UA, Monticello 76-70 UA, Monticello (22-13-3)
11v14 Shaw/Henderson St.  6-Shaw 97-84 Shaw (23-13-3)
10v15 Cal. San Diego/Tiffin 5-Cal. San Diego 100-92 (2OT) Cal. San Diego (24-13-3)
11v3 N. Florida/Drury 5-Drury 54-44 Drury (25-13-3)
1v9 OK Panhandle St./TAMU, Kingsville 5-OK Panhandle St. 89-79 OK Panhandle St. (26-13-3)
1v9 CSU, Stanislaus/St. Cloud St. 4-CSU, Stanislaus 67-56 CSU, Stanislaus (27-13-3)
12v13 W. Liberty St./St. Joseph's (IN) 4-St. Joseph's (IN) 84-79 W. Liberty St. (27-14-3)
5v4 Kutztown U./Ohio Valley 3-Kutztown U. 79-68 Ohio Valley (27-15-3)
5v4 Cal. Davis/W. Alabama 2-Cal. Davis 66-62 Cal. Davis (28-15-3) 
6v3 Incarnate Word/N. Greenville 2-Incarnate Word 63-61 N. Greenville (28-16-3)
7v2 Fayetteville St./Shippensburg U. Push 81-68 Shippensburg U. (28-17-3)
1v13 Sonoma St./Shepherd 16-Sonoma St.  
1v12 CSU, Stanislaus/W. Liberty St. 11-CSU, Stanislaus  
11v2 Shaw/CSU, Dominguez Hills 10-CSU, Dominguez Hills  
3v7 N. Greenville/Bemidji St, 8-Bemidji St.  
1v4 OK Panhandle St./Ohio Valley 8-OK Panhandle St.  
1v5 UA, Monticello/Cal. Davis 4-UA, Monticello  
3v10 S.W. Minnesota St./Cal. San Diego 3-S.W. Minnesota St.  
3v2 Drury/Shippensburg U.  3-Shippensburg U.  

Still continuing to be unpredictable.  I'm at 28-17-3 (62.22%) to the seedings 32-16 (66.67%).  I still think this is the worst field i've seen in years.  Probably will add to a couple more big upsets. 
2/18/2013 10:02 AM
Sweet 16/Elite 8
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
1v13 Sonoma St./Shepherd 16-Sonoma St. 91-68 Sonoma St. (29-17-3)
1v12 CSU, Stanislaus/W. Liberty St. 11-CSU, Stanislaus 86-65 CSU, Stanislaus (30-17-3)
11v2 Shaw/CSU, Dominguez Hills 10-CSU, Dominguez Hills 90-79 CSU, Dominguez Hills (31-17-3)
3v7 N. Greenville/Bemidji St. 8-Bemidji St. 80-69 Bemidji St. (32-17-3)
1v4 OK Panhandle St./Ohio Valley 8-OK Panhandle St. 83-73 OK Panhandle St. (33-17-3)
1v5 UA, Monticello/Cal. Davis 4-UA, Monticello 89-75 UA, Monticello (34-17-3)
3v10 S.W. Minnesota St./Cal. San Diego 3-S.W. Minnesota St. 74-69 S.W. Minnesota St. (35-17-3)
3v2 Drury/Shuppensburg U. 3-Shippensburg U. 82-66 Drury (35-18-3)
1v3 Sonoma St./S.W. Minnesota St. 5-Sonoma St.  
1v2 OK Panhandle St./CSU, Dominguez Hills 3-CSU, Dominguez Hills  
1v7 UA, Monticello/Bemidji St. 2-UA, Monticello  
1v3 CSU, Stanislaus/Drury 2-CSU, Stanislaus  

Kind of funny how after all these upsets there are still 4 1 seeds in the elite 8.  Also, if things go according to these predictions (I'd imagine that 3 of these 4 end up right since the pt diff is pretty low for all games) CCCA will have 3 final 4 teams.  Now i'm 35-18-3 (66.04%) to the seedings 38-18 (67.86%)
2/19/2013 2:57 AM
Elite 8/Final 4
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
1v3 Sonoma St./S.W. Minnesota St. 5-Sonoma St. 83-77 S.W. Minnesota St. (35-19-3)
1v2 OK Panhandle St./CSU, Dominguez Hills 3-CSU, Dominguez Hills 88-81 CSU, Dominguez Hills (36-19-3)
1v7 UA, Monticello/Bemidji St. 2-UA, Monticello 81-71 UA, Monticello (37-19-3)
1v3 CSU, Stanislaus/Drury 2-CSU, Stanislaus 78-63 CSU, Stanislaus (38-19-3)
1v2 CSU, Stanislaus/CSU, Dominguez Hills 6-CSU, Dominguez Hills  
3v1 S.W. Minnesota St./UA, Monticello 3-UA, Monticello  
Title Game Possibilities 
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
3v2 S.W. Minnesota St./CSU, Dominguez Hills 6-CSU, Dominguez Hills  
1v1 UA, Monticello/CSU, Stanislaus 3-UA, Monticello  
1v2 UA, Monticello/CSU Dominguez Hills 3-CSU, Dominguez Hills  
3v1 S.W. Minnesota St./CSU, Stanislaus Push  

So, i'm 38-19-3 (66.67%) to the seeding's 40-20 (66.67%).  
2/21/2013 11:53 AM (edited)
Final
Seed Teams Formula Pt Diff Actual Score
1v2 CSU, Stanislaus/CSU, Dominguez Hills 6-CSU, Dominguez Hills 88-74 CSU, Stanislaus (38-20-3)
3v1 S.W. Minnesota St./UA, Monticello 3-UA, Monticello 85-75 S.W. Minnesota St. (38-21-3)
3v1 S.W. Minnesota St./CSU, Stanislaus Push 72-70 S.W. Minnesota St. (38-21-4)
So, I ended up 38-21-4 (64.41%) to the seeding's 41-22 (65.08%).  I expect to beat that most seasons, but it is harder to determine when the quality of the world is worse.  I gear my formula towards top 25 type teams and I make no distinction between a frosh who is a spot level player and a walkon.  Problem is there were a lot of those reserve type players on teams all over.  The other is that there were more sims than I've seen in awhile.  The sims are awful at gameplanning which means their pt values are inflated.  Lifetime i'm 86-34-6 (71.67%) to the seedings 87-38 (69.04%). 
Here's the current data.  Still needs larger sample size, but somewhat relevant.
Formula Pt Diff % favorite wins avg. pt diff sample size
1 53.85 2.62 13
2 58.33 2.08 12
3 50 -2.25 12
4 69.23 6.38 13
5 70.59 7.29 17
6 87.5 11.63 8
7 80 8.2 5
8 100 10.22 9
9 85.71 11.43 7
10 66.67 8.83 6
11 100 17.67 6
12 0 -2 1
13 50 4.5 2
14 0 0 0
15 100 18.5 2
16 100 22 2
17 100 16 1
18 0 0 0
19 100 31 1
20 100 20 1
21 0 0 0
22 0 0 0
23 100 26 1
*I should point out that I treat overtime games as 0 pt diff but still mark who won or lost.  I just figure every other game is base 40 minutes so that should stay uniform.
Edit: I'm also thinking of adding std deviation once I get some more data.  I took a couple college stat classes, but i'm sure someone knows better than I what would be good stats I can include.
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