'Plus' Stats Topic

id_203
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I was wondering if anyone routinely uses the 'plus' stats to help pick players (AVG+, ERA+, etc.).  I am struggling to figure out what you can learn from the 'plus' stats that you can't learn from the 'pound' stats (AVG#, ERA#, etc.). 

The one use I see is that in progressives or leagues where everyone is using just a few seasons the 'plus' stats will give you a good indication of how they will preform vs. the league average since everyone is using players from the same season.  But in OL, the 'pound' stats just seem much more useful.

Thoughts?


6/4/2011 10:28 AM
footballmm11
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When comparing specific seasons, the # stats are always better than + stats. However, in progressives especially, when looking at a player's career, for instance, the + stats give you a sense of how they rank in the league for that year.

For instance, if I want to decide between Player A and Player B, I want to know their OPS# numbers as opposed to their OPS+ numbers.

However, if I'm in a progressive, and I see that a player has a .784 OPS#, I have no idea where that ranks in the league. In this case, everyone is coming from the same league (actually two leagues since + stats are separate for AL and NL, but the skew is generally small), so the ordering of the # and + numbers should be the same. Thus, in this case I'll take the extra info that the + numbers give me by relating everything to league average.
6/6/2011 1:02 PM
jfranco77
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I agree. I sort by OPS# when drafting in a vacuum, but when planning for progressives I use OPS+ ... however I always use ERC# ... probably just a quirk but I like my ERAs to look like ERAs
6/6/2011 1:06 PM
schwarze
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Hmmm, I'm the opposite.  I sort pitching by ERC+ and hitting by OPS+.  I do look at the # stats as well, but I tend to favor players that normalize well... which means very good + stats.

Which is why I'm always taking 2002 Pedro Martinez (218 ERC+, 1.85 ERC#) over 1964 Sandy Koufax (206 ERC+, 1.78 ERC#).
6/6/2011 9:33 PM
schwarze
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Now HR's allowed are a completely different matter.  Of course, I prefer HR9+ over 100, preferably over 200.  But for deadball pitchers, you have to also heavily factor in HR9#.

1914 Dutch Leonard's HR9+ is only 98 but his HR9# is 0.22.  He'll give up fewer HRs than somebody like 2005 Johan Santana (125 HR9+, 0.65 HR9#).
6/6/2011 9:37 PM
footballmm11
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schwarze, I don't understand that. can you explain to me why that matters? what is the difference between a hitter with a high OPS but "low" normalization and a hitter with a low OPS and "high" normalization if their OPS# numbers are the same?
6/6/2011 11:43 PM
schwarze
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I think it really comes down to how the sim works and what types of players typically get drafted.  Two batters with the same OPS# will not perform the same in the sim.  I understand that the # does, to some effect, incorporate the season in which the player plays, but that's not the whole story.  You really need to look at how the OPS# is determined?  If the player is a modern day HR hitter, then I know from experience that his HRs will be down and he will underperform more than a typical deadball hitter with the same OPS#.  The OPS+ value shows normalization more signicantly than the OPS# value.
 

6/7/2011 12:37 PM
footballmm11
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interesting, i'll have to think about that. thanks for the insight.
6/7/2011 2:30 PM
Trentonjoe
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I have found that guys with # stats higher than RL stats tend to perform better than their #'s stats would indicate.   Particularly with hitting HR's  and BA.
6/7/2011 3:10 PM
ncmusician_7
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The only things that matter are the specific advanced stats (1B/100AB#, BB/100PA#, etc).  Whether or not the # numbers are above or below their real life numbers is irrelevant.
6/7/2011 6:25 PM
mixtroy
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Posted by ncmusician_7 on 6/7/2011 6:25:00 PM (view original):
The only things that matter are the specific advanced stats (1B/100AB#, BB/100PA#, etc).  Whether or not the # numbers are above or below their real life numbers is irrelevant.
But given the choice with a few exceptions, and all else being equal, I'd gladly take the guy whose # numbers are higher than his RL numbers for the simple fact that an "over" player is more inclined to perform better than the guy whose # numbers are lower than his RL numbers. 
6/7/2011 10:18 PM
ncmusician_7
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Posted by mixtroy on 6/7/2011 10:18:00 PM (view original):
Posted by ncmusician_7 on 6/7/2011 6:25:00 PM (view original):
The only things that matter are the specific advanced stats (1B/100AB#, BB/100PA#, etc).  Whether or not the # numbers are above or below their real life numbers is irrelevant.
But given the choice with a few exceptions, and all else being equal, I'd gladly take the guy whose # numbers are higher than his RL numbers for the simple fact that an "over" player is more inclined to perform better than the guy whose # numbers are lower than his RL numbers. 
Based on what evidence?
6/7/2011 11:57 PM
zubinsum
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Posted by mixtroy on 6/7/2011 10:18:00 PM (view original):
Posted by ncmusician_7 on 6/7/2011 6:25:00 PM (view original):
The only things that matter are the specific advanced stats (1B/100AB#, BB/100PA#, etc).  Whether or not the # numbers are above or below their real life numbers is irrelevant.
But given the choice with a few exceptions, and all else being equal, I'd gladly take the guy whose # numbers are higher than his RL numbers for the simple fact that an "over" player is more inclined to perform better than the guy whose # numbers are lower than his RL numbers. 
To paraphrase Boog, performance relative to RL stats is irrelevant in OLs.  The only thing that is relevant is performance relative to salary.

As an example '94 Jack Doyle normalizes horribly, but he is still a great bargain.
6/8/2011 2:25 AM
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Trentonjoe
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Posted by ncmusician_7 on 6/7/2011 11:57:00 PM (view original):
Posted by mixtroy on 6/7/2011 10:18:00 PM (view original):
Posted by ncmusician_7 on 6/7/2011 6:25:00 PM (view original):
The only things that matter are the specific advanced stats (1B/100AB#, BB/100PA#, etc).  Whether or not the # numbers are above or below their real life numbers is irrelevant.
But given the choice with a few exceptions, and all else being equal, I'd gladly take the guy whose # numbers are higher than his RL numbers for the simple fact that an "over" player is more inclined to perform better than the guy whose # numbers are lower than his RL numbers. 
Based on what evidence?
Check out the performance History for these guys:


 
  Player   Team B PA
/162		 HR AVG HR/
100		 HR/
100#		 AVG# AVG+ SLG SO/
100		 SPD SALARY            
1 Fielder, Prince 2007  L 681 50 .288 8.73 6 .286 108 .618 21.12 53 $5,687,664  
       
2 Killebrew, Harmon 1961 R 665 46 .288 8.50 6 .292 113 .606 20.15 53 $5,814,389  
       
3 Killebrew, Harmon 1964 R 682 49 .270 8.49 6 .278 109 .548 23.40 65 $5,102,635          
4 Ramirez, Manny 2005  R 650 45 .292 8.12 6 .290 109 .594 21.48 68 $5,289,748          

42         Meusel, Bob 1925 R 733 33 .290 5.29 6    .275 99 .542 8.81 79 $5,076,432          
43 Laabs, Chet 1942  R 659 27 .275 5.19 6 .278 107 .498 16.92 66 $4,816,886          
44 Hauser, Joe 1924  L 676 27 .288 4.80 6 .274 99 .516 9.25 58 $5,430,835  
       
45 Freeman, Buck 1899  L 676 25 .318 4.25 6 .307 113 .563 9.69 67 $5,166,626          


6/8/2011 6:53 AM (edited)
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