12/29/2010 5:36 PM
That you would ask a question that you know the answer to just to be argumentative?  I don't find that odd at all.
12/29/2010 5:37 PM
Please see follow-up statement.
12/29/2010 5:43 PM
You can't use defensive replacements unless you're winning.  And the odds are much better that he'll get a hit than make a bad play.  I do up 2 in the 7th.
12/29/2010 5:47 PM
So, conceivably, you could be up 1 in the 7th, 8th or 9th when he kicks one.  That's what I meant when I said "You can't control when they happen."   Of course, since you have seemingly picked a number from thin air on how many runs a negative play is worth, it's sort of irrelevant anyway.
12/29/2010 5:51 PM
And, just so you know, I'm only giving you a hard time because you made a definitive statement with no hard facts to back it.    That's a really poor way to answer a question.
12/29/2010 5:53 PM

At which point I'll be glad I have his bat in the lineup.  You know, assuming it scores a run.  Because a lot of the time it doesn't.

12/29/2010 11:23 PM
Posted by jonas1102 on 12/29/2010 5:17:00 PM (view original):
I never did a study, but I read something about MLB that said a bad play is equal to -0.4 Runs.  So that is the reason I use it.  If you have actually done a study that puts it at 2/3rds, I'd definitely consider updating how I value as MLB and HBD shouldn't necessarily be the same.

As far as the timing aspect of when a play happens, you can control that with defensive replacements.  Usually whichever guy doesn't pinch hit will enter the game for Snow in the late innings.
I'm still seekng ways to better quantify defensive measures, but what i'm relying on so far is a simplistic observation that in most of the seasons of most of my worlds you'll find that when looking at team average statistics, unearned runs are pretty close to 2/3rds of errors most of the time. As for plus plays, i believe i tried to extrapolate from Tango to arrive at something close enough for my purposes - but i don't have it (or my notes) handy, so i'll have to try to remember to circle back in a couple days.

By the way, do you happen to recall the MLB source, i'd be curious to see how it compares.
12/29/2010 11:29 PM
Just skimmed recent MLB stats,in 2010, avg MLB team, 57 unearned runs and 101 errors. 2009, 56 unearned runs, 95 errors.
12/30/2010 12:53 AM
I can't find the source I used the first time, but I found this which is pretty interesting.
12/30/2010 7:43 AM
Ooooohh . . . Definitely shouldn't have opened that link before a couple cups of coffee. Cool stuff, thanks for the link. When i get back to my copy of "The Book" i'll try to find what i was using from there.
12/30/2010 8:45 AM
Heh.  The Seattle Mariners were supposed to be awesome in 2010 because of the UZR history of their players.   They won 61 games.

I know the nerd faction of baseball would love to wrap everything up into some nice, tidy numbers but it doesn't work like that.   
12/30/2010 9:29 AM
You don't decide when your crappy fielder boots a ball (or doesn't get to one an average fielder would have) and you don't decide when your slugger gets a big hit.  All you can do is go with what gives you the best chance to win.
12/30/2010 9:35 AM
Of course.   If jonas thinks his poor fielding/good hitting gives his team the best chance to outscore his opponent, he should run with it.   But don't post some made up stat to justify it.  People read these forums for advice and definitive statements should be somewhat accurate.
12/30/2010 9:57 AM
Posted by MikeT23 on 12/30/2010 8:45:00 AM (view original):
Heh.  The Seattle Mariners were supposed to be awesome in 2010 because of the UZR history of their players.   They won 61 games.

I know the nerd faction of baseball would love to wrap everything up into some nice, tidy numbers but it doesn't work like that.   
LOL you're so ignorant it's hilarious.
12/30/2010 10:11 AM
I will assume you are part of the nerd faction. 

I'll try to break it down for you in a language you understand.   .250 is considered mediocre, .300 is considered good.   The difference between the two is about 1 hit PER WEEK over the course of a season.   Blooper, broken bat dribbler, poor jump by a fielder, etc, etc. can turn a player from an also ran to an All-Star in a season.   An AB, game, week, season are all small sample sizes. 

You can work with career averages and get an idea of probabilities but you can't figure out the outcome.   Because the outcome is from that small sample size of an AB or game.

That's why the game of baseball can't be wrapped up in nice, tidy number by statnerds. 
of 7

Terms of Use Customer Support Privacy Statement

Popular on WhatIfSports site: Baseball Simulation | College Basketball Game | College Football Game | Online Baseball Game | Hockey Simulation | NFL Picks | College Football Picks | Sports Games

© 1999-2014 WhatIfSports.com, Inc. All rights reserved. WhatIfSports is a trademark of WhatIfSports.com, Inc. SimLeague, SimMatchup and iSimNow are trademarks or registered trademarks of Electronic Arts, Inc. Used under license. The names of actual companies and products mentioned herein may be the trademarks of their respective owners.