12/28/2010 11:46 AM
Ive got a player im looking at.  All of his defensive stats are above the minimum for a first baseman except for his glove which is a 21.  He'd make a great DH but im in the NL.  Is the 21 glove too much of a liability at first?
12/28/2010 11:50 AM
You won't see too many errors, but you may see several negative plays.  It would depend on how big of an offensive upgrade he is to the next guy.
12/28/2010 12:09 PM
You may see an increase in errors for your other infielders. HBD has always given a lot of 1B errors on muffed throws to the player making the throw.
12/28/2010 3:27 PM
Hardball Dynasty – Fantasy Baseball Sim Games - Player Profile: Ronnie Snow

17 minus plays, 4 errors, 8th in team fielding percentage at .985.
12/28/2010 3:40 PM
On his career, roughly two seasons(2755 innings or 306 nine inning games), he has 13 errors and 61 negative plays.    IOW, he makes a negative play every 5 games. 
12/28/2010 5:43 PM
From what I have observed, ever since the fielding update (www.whatifsports.com/forums/Posts.aspx), a bad 1B has a pretty significant negative impact on a team's defense and pitching statistics and a quality 1B can have an equally positive effect.

Unfortunately Ronnie Snow belongs in the AL and his effect on the defense probably makes his net effect like that of an average first baseman, at best. Thankfully, he would be a beast at DH and is one of the few DH only guys that should still have good trade value.
12/28/2010 6:54 PM
Yeah, he isn't a league average first basemen.  1 negative play/error every 5 games comes out to about -13 runs over the course of the year.  Those 21 plays last year results is -6.3 runs.  His RC last year was top 5 at 135.  He's 129 Net.  That is not average.  If every negative play resulted in a run and every positive play resulted in taking away a run, then you could make the argument.  But it doesn't.

For the guy who started the thread, you are not going to see an excess of negative plays if his range is above the recs.  And his 20 glove should not result in so many errors that it would prevent you from putting him at 1B.  I was able to maintain the best pitching in the league last year, with a tie for the 8th best fielding percentage with a guy who would be far worse than an average range/below average glove player.

Is a guy like Snow ideal defensively at 1B?  Of course not.  He would be best served as a DH.  As a DH, he doesn't lose any value.  But even after the update, you can still put a elite bat/defensive liability at 1B.
12/28/2010 10:46 PM
Hey jonas, i'd be curious how you came up with that translation of poor plays/errors to runs allowed. Looks like you are showing about 1/3rd RA per error/poor play, but my amateur observations come up with something closer to 2/3rds.
12/29/2010 6:14 AM
I was thinking the same thing.  Even if he has some advanced formula that's reasonably accurate based on league-wide averages, the impact of a missed out is based on timing rather than averages.   A negative play with 2 outs, none on in the first is far different than one with a runner on 2nd/3rd in the 7th.

And, unfortunately, you don't get to decide when they happen.
12/29/2010 5:13 PM
Posted by dwoolery on 12/28/2010 10:46:00 PM (view original):
Hey jonas, i'd be curious how you came up with that translation of poor plays/errors to runs allowed. Looks like you are showing about 1/3rd RA per error/poor play, but my amateur observations come up with something closer to 2/3rds.
I believe it's been shown that, on average, 1B errors are slightly less costly than (for example) outfield errors. But I would still put the RA per error/poor play at closer to 2/3 than 1/3, as you said. I would also say that a poor play is more costly than an error for 1B (or 3B or OF), whereas I would say the reverse for a shortstop or 2B.
12/29/2010 5:17 PM
I never did a study, but I read something about MLB that said a bad play is equal to -0.4 Runs.  So that is the reason I use it.  If you have actually done a study that puts it at 2/3rds, I'd definitely consider updating how I value as MLB and HBD shouldn't necessarily be the same.

As far as the timing aspect of when a play happens, you can control that with defensive replacements.  Usually whichever guy doesn't pinch hit will enter the game for Snow in the late innings.
12/29/2010 5:26 PM

You use D-replacements in tie games?

12/29/2010 5:32 PM
Yep.
12/29/2010 5:33 PM
You don't find that odd?
12/29/2010 5:36 PM
Let me re-phrase because, obviously, you don't find it odd at all.

I'm not sure I'd want my best hitter, who happens to be weak in the field, to come out of a 3-3 tie in 8th when he's due up in the 9th.   Seems like a bad way to run the show.
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