It is a new season, and I figured this deserves a new topic on the forum,
The prudent thing would be to wait until recruiting is done and GUESS has given me some additional help to name my preseason top ten. But who likes prudent? Moreover, the second part of the recruiting cycle is not all that interesting what with half the teams being done or just waiting patiently until their last one or two recruits take a decision. This means people have time to read blog posts.

I will name my teams by day, meaning that you need to come back tomorrow to get the more info. Today it is the top 4 and the top games of day 1. Frankly the top 4 were rather clear for me, just not necessarily which team belongs into what spot. I will not create new posts, I will simply update this post.
Today i put up teams ranked 5 to 8. I have to day that any ranking below 4 was very difficult and good arguments can be made for ranking almost any team several spots higher or lower.

First, here are a few games during the non-conf that you might want to keep an eye on:

Day 1:

Western State @ Millersville

Millersville was one of last seasons positive surprises and immediately takes on a heavy weight

Virginia State @ Slippery Rock

Is SRs seasson gonna start better than last season? A cold start is entirely possible again.

Long Island @ Mansfield

Should be a decently even game for 2 teams with high ceilings and low bottoms

Day 2:

Slippery Rock @ Western State

Mansfield @ Bryant

Ferris State @ Abilene Christian. Both teams are probable to make it in, but the loser might have to sweat it out until the end.

Day 3:

Day 3 is when it is happening this season. No day has as many awesome games.

UMC @ Millersville

Mansfield @ Lane

Slipery Rock @ Long Island

Edinboro @ Bryant

Ferris State @ Indiana

In order not to get into trouble with at large chances, both teams need to have this one, as Indiana painfully learned last season.

Findlay @ Kentucky State

Day 4:

NCCU @ Lane

California (PA) @ Quincy

Mansfield @ Abilene Christian

Day 5:

Kentucky State @ NCCU

UMC @ Long Island

Western State @ Ferris State

 

 

Preseason Ranking

 

1. University of Minnesota Crookston (YATZR tool 2^nd, Press/coaches ranking 2^nd)

During the preseason I had UMC ranked 6^th last season, and I don’t think Nacorwin felt too heavily underranked. I was simply thinking that the squad had all the talent necessary to win a national title, but with all the youth on the team, turnovers were at some point bound to come…just that they never did. Instead UMC almost always won the turnover battle even against good teams and just kept on winning against tough oponents until it won it all. Now that same team comes back, just as talented, but with more experience. Yes there are only 6 seniors… but there are 19 insanley talented juniors on a team coached by a proven winner. The OOC holds two interesting games, but none where I would not have UMC as at least a 5 point favorite.

2. Western State of Colorado(YATZR tool 3^rd, Press/coaches ranking 4^th)

Starting out as possibly the most talented team last season, Westerns season got cut short in the quarters. The OOC is decently tough, but in conference they are even missing out on Colorado Mines, meaning it truly is a parade of cupcakes. Offens wise, the team made yet another step forward though, since the seniors that left, were actually not always the best players at their positions.

3. North Carolina Central University (YATZR tool 1^st, Press/coaches ranking 3^rd) 

What happens when one of the most talented teams has 29 upper classmen? Well it becomes one of the big faves to win the whole enchilada. While the D may take a small step back, the O should be even better than last season. The QB is now a redshirt junior, not sophomore, so even from that position we have to expect more production. The potential of this team was made clear with a semi-final run last season, that ended against the eventual champion. The OOC starts out soft and then gets continuously harder. This team features a RB as talented as any In have seen in DII. One position I am worried about though, is tight end where the options are either a sophomore who got moved from WR or a true freshmen. Neither seems a real great option at this level.

4. SE Oklahoma Durant (YATZR tool 4^th, Press/coaches ranking 1^st)

A good team reaching its current Apex before having to reload. Only lost seven seniors, and now has a pretty talented senior class that is 19 strong! SEO finally managed to break its glass ceiling last season, advancing past the quarters to the semis. The team lost only one player on both lines combined, and with the exception of RB, all positions should be equal or improved vs last season. Thus the team should have closed some of the gap to the teams mentioned above. In terms of OOC SOS, SEO is possibly challenging Slippery Rock for the crown this season, as the OOC is just loaded with ranked opponents of all stripes.

5. Kutztown (YATZR tool 7^th, Press/coaches ranking 9^th/8^th)

The PSAC underwent a lot of upheaval last season, and Kutztown is not the only team that might take advantage, but potentially the best of them. While the offense is likely to just keep going and progress. The team also has solid experience. The out of conference schedule is about as vanilla as it gets, the game against West Alabama being the closest thing to a test.

6. Virginia State (YATZR tool 9^th, Press/coaches ranking 7^th/8^th)

Virginia State has an experienced squad, with no big holes anywhere and one of the best QBs in all of division II. The OOC has two really tough tests against top ten teams and then 3 easy games.

7. Ferris State. (YATZR tool 12^th, Press/coaches ranking 13^th/12^th)

There are a lot of teams in this tier that will not have the horses on D. That will not be a problem for Ferris state. Whether the O-line and tight ends will do much to advance the teams cause is another question, but the holes are not so big that they could not be overcome, leaving Feerris state with a shot the big enchilada, should the playoff draw fall right. The OOC is challenging and will put pressure on the team if things should go wrong, but also allow for a very high WIS ranking the way Ferris state had last season.

8. Lane College (YATZR tool 15^th, Press/coaches ranking 5^th)

I had lane at 9 last season, due to youth. This is still a pretty young team, but it is fast getting there, and 2000champOU is one of the coaches I look at when trying to figure out more about how game planning works. While the number of graduates was not huge, the loss of their star QB (7450 yards with 0 interceptions!) will really hurt this team, that pretty much never ran last season. I expect an ever so slightly more balanced approach this season. Lane didn’t pull any punches for the OOC this season, as it plays a really tough slate of opponents, where there could easily be 3 losses before conference starts, should things be going wrong.

9. Slippery Rock (YATZR tool 5^th, Press/coaches ranking 6^th)

It’s a quandary. There is a team, still among the 5 most talented teams, coached by a proven champ. But how high can you rank a team, that lost in the second round (to the eventual champ) and finished 16^th, with 6 losses on the season, when it has probably a tad bit less talent than the season before? I had them at about 6^th or so before recruiting… but then jilin gave another sign of not caring as much as he used to: he failed to recruit. This is still a team with a very high ceiling on national championship potential, but I had to take this into account, both as a signal, but also in terms of what it did to depth. This is not to say that SR is the 9^th most likely to win the natty, it has a better chance than several teams ranked ahead of it, but it also has a better chance of missing the playoffs completely than several behind it.

As always Jilin05 put together one of the tougher OOC slates.

10. Quincy (YATZR tool 8^th, Press/coaches ranking 9^th/11^th)

Yes Quincy was a deserving finalist last season, and keeps recruiting at an awesome clip, but generally you take a step back when you lose 17 seniors and are left with only 9 seniors and 9 juniors, and a redshirt Sophomore starting. It does not help that those are primarily slanted toward the offense. Still, there are some real talents here and Quincy will be able to dispatch a lot of teams due to that alone, and UMC showed last season, that youth does not have to disqualify you. Alas this seasons Quincy suad is not quite as talented as last seasons UMVC squad was. The schedule has several games of medium interest. Quincy will test itself, but be a solid favorite in all of its games. With the SIAC being competitive, this probably allows for high seeding if things go well and only small risk that things will go really bad.

 

 Others Considered (in no particular order)

 

 Kentucky State (YATZR tool 10^th, Press/coaches ranking 14^th)

Kentucky State managed to miss the playoffs last season. Had the team managed to get there, I would probably have them in the top ten, as team talent took another step forward. And has no super obvious glaring holes with the exception of QB. This seasons OOC is a bit tougher, and includes games vs NCCU and Findlay.

Mansfield (YATZR tool 6^th, Press/coaches ranking 29^th/28^th)

Lost 18 starters, and the YATZR ranking will go down fast once the freshmen come in. That said, while depth at some positions may be a problem, the team managed the surprise of not actually regressing at many position, with maybe the exception of QB, and is one of several teams that are a threat to win the PSAC and go deep in the playoffs. The OOC is very interesting and will allow for very high seeding as well as for real potential for disaster.

Delta State (YATZR tool 11^th, Press/coaches ranking 7^th/8^th)

Despite losing 14 seniors the O of delta state is poised to take a good step forward. If there are problems on this roster though, they will spring from the D. Still improving on the quarterfinals round form last season is not impossible.

The OOC schedule is utterly uninspiring, making me think that Delta might not be able to afford more than 2 losses in conference if it wants to make the playoffs. That is not likely to be a problem, but even going unbeaten will likely not end up in a high seeding.

Bryant (YATZR tool 13^th, Press/coaches ranking 16^th) too high currently.

Improvement at all the skill positions meets thin lines on both sides and lack of depth at LB. We will see what gives. It will be a fun OOC schedule with several games against teams that are very similar in talent to Bryants team.

Millersville (YATZR tool 16^th, Press/coaches ranking 16^th)

Pulled of the fantastic PSAC win last season. CThe O will actually get better, but the D brings back about 1-2 starters. Thee OOC has two cupcakes and three of the top 4 ranked teams! Talk about differences. Despite thus probably having very good SOS numbers, they will not be outstanding, and if Millersville doesn’t manage to spring an upset (not unlikely seeing last season), then the pressure to perform in the PSAC will be big, just to make the playoffs.

Long Island (YATZR tool 19^th, Press/coaches ranking 11^th/10^th

Same story as UCO top ten skill positions, but despite a few great players everywhere, the O-line and the D lack depth.

East Stroudsburgh

Still close enough to its PSAC brethren to really have a ho at the conference championship.

Central Oklahoma

The lines aren’t there yet, but skill position wise this is a top ten team.

Valdosta State, Indiana, Abilene christian, Edinboro, Northern State

 

Slippery Rock is going to be a big fat question mark this season. Talented, but are they now adrift. Probably everyone is left to wonder. Where o where art thou jlin. Reminds me of vick12 many seasons ago. Gone without a trace.

Slippery Rock looks to be abandoned sadly. Hope I am wrong.

There is a HUGE gap between 4 and 5 (per GUESS). I wish VA State was 4 instead of 5 b/c that's a lot of ground to make up. Gotta figure your ranking of the top four is about right and it's gotta be likely that the champion comes from that group. Not recruiting an entire class is a killer, so that sucks for SR. 

Millersville is coming for you all. BWAHA       ()

Well, from what I see people liked last seasons conference preview…. Well at least nobody said any different. The rules for the ranking are pretty much the same: I don’t care much about whether the SIMs at the bottom of a conference are worse than the Sim at the bottom of another conference. The top interests me more.

I am giving the first three (bottom three) conferences today the rest will probably follow bit by bit saturday and/or sunday or maybe only on monday when there is already halftime of the first game in conference... private life.

12. NCC, GUESS rankings: 12^th, WIS ranking after day 5: 11^th , Current record: 22-38

For the second season in a row the MIAAs best GUESS ranked recruiting class was 49^th. That is just bad. At least Humboldt state got an owner again who seems to care, and still has a good enough senior class to be somewhat dangerous in the playoffs.

The favorite: Humboldt State (5-0)

Contenders: St Cloud State (3-2)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Augustana (2-3), Central Washington (4-1),

If you are only looking at the upperclassmen Humboldt State is still a top 15 team nationally. But it missed the recruiting last season (which why the team is heavily underranked in GUESS), has limited depth and finally, morningwood still needs to prove his game planning qualities and had to contend with lower vision in recruiting. The biggest challenger is St. Cloud state which is actually the highest GUESS rated team and very close to Humboldt, but also suffers from some depth deficiencies on the O-line and has slightly less talent at RB and WR. Augustana and Central Washington are basically just two SIMs, with a bit more depth than the favorites, but considerably less top talent, and I would not even list them as pretenders in most other conferences.

Top 3 regular season games:

1.      Humboldt St at St Cloud State on day 6

Probably a preview of the CCG

2.      St Cloud State vs Augustan on day 13

Possibly for the East, and possibly also with playoff implications.

3.      Humboldt State vs Central Washington on day 9

Probably for the west

11. MIAA GUESS ranking: 11^h, WIS ranking after day 5: 10^th, Current record: 26-34

The conference was a complete mess last season. But generally the recruiting improved, and it looks like Maybe NW Missouri state might take over the conference for good after already having won it last season, but several teams are still within reach of them and could score an upset, and are currently in their second season of development. There are definitely more teams that could make the playoffs than last season, but I fear there is none with a realistic shot at the third round. Particularly the south –clearly not as good as the north - might turn out to be wide open.

The favorite:  NW Missouri State (5-0)

Contenders: Washburn Topeka (3-2), Truman State (3-2)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Lock haven (2-3), Southwest Baptist (3-2), Pittsburg State (2-1), Cheyney (1-4), Missouri Rolla (5-0)

NW Missouri has not only one of the most talented teams at the top of its roster in this conference. Importantly it also has some depth across the board and no huge holes, which makes it by far the likeliest team to come out of this, and also the most probable to maybe win a game in the playoffs. The toughest contender is likely Truman State, one of several team entering its second season with a new coach. There are still some holes and lack of top depth, but the foundation is there. Washburn Topeka and Cheyney have both also talent at the top, but both have severe depth problems, particularly on the lines, which is likely to keep them from winning the conference, but they might still be good enough for an upset or two. Both also have the advantage of missing NMSU in cross division. SW Baptist has a decent O line, but might still be a few seasons away from making a real push for the playoffs.

At Pittsburg State there was a really big senior class leaving, so the team is a bit young in gdplayers second year of this rebuild, on top of this, there is the awful draw in cross division. Lock haven is a team coached by a proven winner, but the team is still a bit away from really pushing the best on a consistent basis, and –like SBS - drew the three toughest teams from the north for cross division. Missouri Rolla is one of those SIMs who surprised in OOC an have currently a resume that theroretically would allow a playoff run.

Top 3 regular season games:

I could have named a lot more games, as it is hard to predict which teams will be playing for the championship in the end.

1.      Truman State – NW Missouri on day 11

Probably for the north

2.      SBS vs NW Missouri day 13

Representing several games in cross division, of which this might just end up being the one having the most at large implications

3.      Pitsburgh State vs NW Missouri on day 9

If Pitsburg State wants a shot a the title this is a must win.

10. GLIAC GUESS ranking: 9^th, WIS ranking after day 5: 5^th current record: 22-38

Well, that OOC did not go well for the GLIAC. And if more teams than Ferris State and Findlay want to make it… well then the OOC opponents better be as successful in their conferences as the current WIS ranking implies they will be.

The favorite:  Ferris State (3-2)

Contenders: Findlay (3-2)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: GVSU (3-2), Saginaw Valley (4-1), Ashland (4-1)

4 championships in a row and 3 WIS top 6 rankings in that span make Ferris State automatically the favorite. 18 seniors increases this perception even more.  The Guess ratings are under ranking this Findlay team, due to one bad recruiting class, which are currently sophomores. The D may actually be better than Ferris States. Maybe the 5^th owner in 6 seasons is the one to bring stability? And with good gameplaning there may be a shot vs Ferris. GVSUs previous owner left really good talent. If the team weren’t a SIM I’d give it a bigger shot to score the upset though. Still there is a shot the team wins the division, if SVSU can’t figure out a way to take advandtage of its easier cross division sched. With Ashland there is another team, that managed to beat most of its all SIM schedule in OOC and has a shot at the playoffs if things go well.

Top 3 regular season games

1.      Ferris State vs Findlay on day 9

Likely the game that will decide the West and the conference

2.      GVSU vs SVSU on day 10

The two best  east teams going against each other

3.      Findlay vs GVSU on day 7

A  Findlay win could help SVSU. Also both teams will need this one to help their at large chances.

 

good read.  thanks for putting together dachmann.

Thanks for the work. It really does enhance the coaching experience.

Always a good read, Dachmann.

Ok, I am getting out spots 9 to 7. I was not quite sure what to make of the GLIACs high wis ranking, seing the conferences actually bad record, so I left them where I had them.

9. RMAC GUESS ranking 9^th, WIS ranking after day 5: 9^th , Current record: 23-37

The favorite: Western State (5-0)

Contenders: None

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Colorado Mines (5-0)

I could almost use the same text as last season, since Western State is still the big favorite and a national championship contender. Otherwise there is only Colorado Mines, which is a legit playoff team that has done really well in OOC so far, but not really good enough to challenge a team like Western state.

Top 3 regular season games:

Ouff with Mines not meeting western, this is really as barren as it gets.

1.      Colorado Mines vs Fort Lewis on day 8

Well, the only one that remotely feels like there are at least minimal upset chances.

2.      Colorado Mines vs Fort Hays, day 9

3.      Colorado Mines vs Midwestern State on day 10

 

 

8. NEC-10 GUESS rankings: 4^th, WIS ranking after day 5: 12^th current record: 26-34

Whoever comes out of the east is likely to win the conference. That said both division races hold interest. The conference got dropped a few spots due to its OOC performance, which is also really hitting its WIS ranking and might make getting to the playoffs a lot tougher for everyone.

Top teams

The Favorite: Bryant (4-1)

Contenders: Long Island (2-3)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Stonehill (3-2), Assumption (2-3)

Could this be the season Bryant finally breaks through to the final 4? There certainly is a chance, but good seeding from a conference championship would help, and while they are solid favorites, it is not a total gimme. Long Island is a bit underranked in GUESS, due to having had to take 3 or for SIM recruits. Because of the OOC making the playoffs would be easiest via the conference championship. Stonehills primary goals are probably a) to get to the playoffs, and b) to get to the CCG. For that it will have to get past Assumption who is one of the better SIMs in division II, due to what the previous owner left here.

Top 3 regular season games:

1.      Bryant vs Long Island on day 12

Some sort of final ahead of the final

2.      Stonehill vs Long Island on day 8

A game with at large implications and two teams that should not be worlds apart.

3.      Stonehill vs Assumption on day 13

This will likely be a conference semifinal.

7. South Atlantic Conference GUESS ranking: 2^nd, WIS ranking after day 5: 6^th current record: 35-25

Well, emm….. the conference that distinguished itself last season by letting a SIM team win the championship. It could happen again, although I have Glennville winning it. But this is a short term situation, as recruiting by the top human coaches has really picked up.

The favorite: Glennville (5-0)

The Contenders: Mars Hill (3-2), Carson-Newman (5-0), Newberry (4-1)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Lenoir-Rhyne (4-1), West Virginia Tech (4-1)

Glennville quality and depth provided by what might be the most stable recruiting of the conference, but then again there is some youth on the defensive side. They also profit from an easy cross division sched. There are two of the best SIMs in this conference and both have a shot at the title: Newberrys GUESS ranking may be a lot lower, but it actually has more talent than Glennville at the skill positions, but maybe a tad bit less on the lines. Mars Hill still has the second highest GUESS ranking, and boatload of upper classmen. Carson-Newman is also recruiting above its results. I doubt the fruits are already enough bountiful to win the conference, particularly as the team is quite young, but they are closing the gap and should aim to win the division. CM missed Glennville in cross division, but has all other good teams remaining. West Virginia Tech is currently not quite at the level of those other teams, ut looks like it may –in the long term – close the gap a bit. Lenoir Rhynes big class are now sophomores. They are still competitive for the playoffs, and definitely good to upset some others in the championship race. For both WVIT and Lenoir Rhyne the cross division is tougher than for Glennville, further reducing their chances.

Top 3 games:

It was actually a hard choice.

1.      Mars Hill vs West Virginia Tech on day 8

This game is between the two best east teams.

2.      Carson Newman at Mars Hill on day 10

Probably the best game in the west.

3.      WVIT vs Lenoir Rhyne on day 11

Only the winner will have a real shot at the east, and nobody gets an at-large without a wining games like this

Ok, today I got the 6 conferences I have ranked highest today.
For those who are really attentive: Yes I did update the previous posts, and yes the results did make me slightly change the rankings

Without further ado here goes the rest of the conference previews:

6. CIAA GUESS ranking: 8^th, WIS ranking after day 5: 7^th, current record: 29-31

The CIAA remains really top heavy. Basically it is NCCU and Virginia State both deeply entrenched in the top ten. At least Winston Salem State is approaching profiency.

Top teams

The favorite: NCCU (5-0)

Contenders: Virginia State (4-1)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Winston Salem State (4-1),

NCCU vs Virginia State will be the final again. With its 16 seniors, maybe this is the season V state can push orangepace off the pedestal. The OOC already has a nice win over SEO Durant. Winston Salem State improved a lot in GUESS this season, and is not as young as before. It is not enough to contend for the championship, but it is getting close to playoff ready.

Top 3 regular season games

1.      NCCU-Virginia State, on season day 6

Almost certainly a preview of the championship game, and one ofn the best games in conference play has to offer across all of division II.

2.      WSSU vs Virginia State on season day 8

It wouldn’t win the division, but it would help dramatically with an at large for WSSU.

3.      WSSU at NCCU on day 9

If WSSU wants the east, this is where they will have to take it.

 

5. Northern Sun GUESS rankings: 3^rd, WIS ranking after day 5: 8^th, current record: 28-32

Last season should have been a rebuild for UMC. Instead they went 19-0 and won the Natty. So the faves are clear this season. What happens in the south might be interesting though.

Top teams

The favorite:  Minnesota Crookston, (4-1)

Contenders: Northern State (2-3)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: West Virginia State (4-1), Winona State (4-1)

UMC won it all last season with 15 upper classmen. Well this season there are 19 juniors… but still only 6 seniors. So seeing as this team is insanely talented, I am not sure anyone can really scare them in confrence, but that one OOC loss showed that they are at least not entirely immune to the competition. Northern Sates OOC was rough, particularly that loss to Findlay hurt. Luckily it gets easier in conference, with only really one game they could potentially lose. But if they do not manage to go undefeated until the CCG, then it will get close for an at large. Despite GUESS ratings saying they should not be close, West Virginia State made the playoffs twice in a row… and now their team is actually having talent with which you are supposed to have a shot at getting there. The OOC went accordingly with wins over St cloud and Truman. I think the talent gap is too big to really scare UMC, but not necessarily to big to scare northern state. The cross division is a lot tougher for them than for northern though. I don’t really have Duluth on the list this season, due to the fact that they have more freshmen than upperclassmen. With Winona State you have another one of those sims that overperformed in OOC and theoretically have a shot at the playoffs, if things go surprisinglywell inconference also. Unlikely, though.

Top 3 regular season games:

1.      West Virginia State vs Northern State on day 9

This game is probably for the south. And maybe also for entry to the playoffs

2.      Crookston-West Virginia State on day 7

A good game with quality. Not losing to heavily to help its MOV has to be the goal for WVS

3.      West Virginia State vs Minnesota Duluth on day 8

If dukers wantto stay in the south race before in division games even start, then he needs this one..

4. GSC, GUESS ranking: 7^th, WIS ranking after day 5: 3^rd, current record: 39-21

Delta may still be the favorite, but Valdosta has reduced the gap a lot, and several others are also be witin throwing distance. This conference is definitely starting to be one of the deeper ones out there. With all the good as well as a healty dose of cupcake wins the conference has accumulated in OOC, there might be extra playoff spots up for grabs.

The favorite: Delta State (5-0)

Contenders: Central Arkansas (3-2), Valdosta State (5-0), West Georgia (5-0)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Arkansas-Monticello (5-0), Henderson State (5-0)

Delta State Lost some pretty good players to graduation, and while it is still the most talented team, the difference is not big any more. Valdosta States big class is the juniors, and that has helped close the gap. Valdosta definitely has the harder cross division though. UCA is slightly underranked by GUESS, since it took 4 SIM recruits. West Georgia is likely to make the battle for the north a really even one, as this team took a leap forward this season. UAM would be a contender in the north, but in the south it is unlikely to get past both Delta and Valdosta and on top of this has a tough cross division. In addtion to this, SIM Henderson State may help the conference, as its OOC went so well, it is still theoretically in the running for a playoff spot.

A good amount of choices was available here too.

Top 3 regular season games

1.      Delta State vs Valdosta State on day 13

The game that likely decides the south….and might be looked at as an early final.

2.      UCA vs West Georgia on day 12

Probably the deciding battle for the north

3.      West Georgia vs Ark-Monticello on day 6

Monticello has a tough cross division, and this is the kind of game they need to win to get an at large again.

 

3. Lone Star Conference GUESS ranking: 5^th, WIS ranking 4^th after day 5: current record: 37-23

I was able to bump my conference up, primarily due to a nice OOC performance, but also due to improved teams according to GUESS.

The Favorite: Oklahoma Durant (4-1).

Contenders: Abilene Christian (4-1), Central Oklahoma (5-0)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Texas A&M commerce (4-1), West Texas A&M (4-1)

SEO two consecutive titles and a top 4 GUESS rankings: clearly the favorite. But others are still within ear shot. For UCO, having 16 seniors, this might be an important season to capitalize. That is all the more true as the recruiting class was less than stellar. With a win over Mansfield ACU has already proven in the OOC, that it is dangerous this season as well and the favorite in the south. But while I don’t see Texas A&M commerce winning the conference, I could imagine that this is the season they coud upset ACU and get to the CCG. Moreover, it will be an interesting run at making the playoffs again this season, and the team is clearly improved from last season as the big class are now juniors. And West Texas A&M season start over cupcakes keeps them for moment in the playoff picture, but I fear this is not likely to last.

 

Top 3 regular season games:

1.      SEO vs UCO on day 11

This game probably decides the north

2.      SEO vs Abilene Christian on day 6

3.      Texas A&M Commerce vs Abilene Christian on day 11

This game probably decides the south.

 

2. SIAC, GUESS ranking: 6th, WIS ranking after day 5: 2^nd, current record: 33-27

With St Joseph turning SIM, this has become a three team league…but all three teams can make a case to be top ten teams. Whenever two humans play, this conference will be fun to watch. I really might have anointed any of the three the favorites. On top of this some SIMS have really overperformed in OOC, and will make getting good seeding even easier.

The Favorite: Lane (3-2)

Contenders: Kentucky State (4-1) Quincy (5-0)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Miles (5-0), Kentucky Weslyan (5-0)

Kentucky State is still the default the north champ. And good recruiting and more experience have led to the best GUESS ranking tlreese has at this school. The only position keeping me from calling them the favorites is the QB. After winning the conference, and making it to the national championship game  Quincy is now rebuilding. Or reloading? The talent level is still really high. and by now we can safely assume that its coach is a very good game planner as well. Lane is a tad bit more experienced than last season, but also still young. But because they don’t have quite as outstanding a QB, they are rushing every now and then again this season. Still the overall improvement at all other skill positions makes this team very dangerous. The OOC losses –understandable as they were-  hurt though. Although they likely only have seeding implications and not making it or not making it to the playoffs. Miles and Kentucky Weslyan are the types of surprise SIMs we see pop up every season, whos OOC went so well, they might have a shot at an at large if things go well in conference. But neither is close to threating for the CCG.

 

Top 3 games

1.      Quincy vs Lane on day 10

The winner gets to play Kentucky state in the Championship game

2.      Kentucky State vs Quincy on day 8

The best test for Kentucky State before what is highly likely to be the CCG

3.      Kentucky State vs Miles on day 10

 

1. PSAC, GUESS ranking: 1^st, WIS ranking after day 5: 1^st, current record: 29-19

12 human coaches in a conference. Nice to see! Sadly enough it means that the additional recruiting money those coaches get from their playoff bids barely pay for the fact that they have to go more national in recruiting due to the cut throat competition for local recruits. In other news the gap between the PSAC and the next best conference got smaller, as while there are loads of good coaches, they did take more OOC losses than in other seasons. It could have been even worse though, the conference did manage 11 (!) wins on day 5.

Picking the future conference winner out of the 7 or 8 best teams feels like playing the lottery.

The favorite: Kutztown (5-0)

The Contenders: Slippery Rock (4-1), East Stroudsburg (5-0), Mansfield (2-3), Edinboro (5-0), Millersville (3-2), Indiana (4-1),

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: California (3-2), West Chester (3-2)

Slippery Rock is part of the reason why the gap between the PSAC and the rest has gotten smaller. Jilin seemed to be asleep at the wheel lately, and whilte this is still the most talented team in the conference, this conference demands decent game planning, and I currently don’t see it from him. But if he comes back… then everyone be on their heels. If SR doesn’t win the west this season, Edinboro might be ready to win it this season as it has the wests highest GUESS rating and also managed to beat its OOC which to be honest only had one tough game, but a win over Bryant is still nice. I got Indiana a tad bit behind Edinboro, as they had to replace a decently sized senior class. But the difference can definitely be overcome. California has the same problem with just a tad bit less overall talent I’d say, and last seasons linebacker problem actually got worse this season, making me think that while they might upset several teams, only have outside chances to win it.

Despite a total cupcake OOC Kutztowns win margins were not always impressive. That said this team has as good as any team a chance to win the conference. The D may not quite be where it was last season, but the O should easily make up for that and the cross division is as easy as it will get in the PSAC. Millersville had an incredible season 97, won the conf and advanced to the quarters. But while this is still a really talented team, it only has 17 upper classmen. Finding the consistency from last season will be tough. The cross division does not do Millersville any favors either.

I was quite high on East Stroudsburg last season, but they did not quite produce at the level I imagined and lost in the first round of the playoffs. While I am a tad bit worried about O-line depth this season, that does not mean they might not turnaround this season and win the conference, particularly as they clearly have the easts easiest cross division schedule. Mansfield could also have been anointed the favorite, but having the hardest cross division imaginable did not help. Still the team is as talented as it ever was, has no obvious holes, and might be able to take advantage of several other teams being young this season. The OOC did not go all that well though, and now the line between challenging for the conference crown and missing the playoffs entirely is very thin. Among the new coaches West Chester probably has the best shot at a playoff spot. While I don't really see it happening unless they manage at least two big upsets, they did acrue the kind of OOC SSO that could be helpful.

My top 3 games

(again…. So many to chose from, so many that could actually be the deciding ones that are not on the list)

1.      Millersville vs Kutztown on day 12

Last seasons champ against the potentially most talented team in the east late in the season when th division crown is likely not yet decided.

2.      Slippery Rock vs Edinboro on day 10

Well this could be the decisive hame in the west. But it doesn’t have too.

3.      Indiana vs Mansfield on day 7

An early joust that points the way toward division winning chances or playoff trouble

4.      Millersville vs East Stroudsburg on day 10

Both teams will need this to set themselves up for east division title chances later on.

Spectacular work dachman.

I always get big kick out of seeing our PSAC mentioned. And it really is excellent work. Every consider career as a sports journalist ?