So I started this topic. Here is where later in the season I will bring in my bubble watch. Today i will already start with something else.
I would also like to state, that anyone who would like to add his own thoughts posts etc, I can only encourage you to do this.

With out-of conference play almost over, I thought a look at how the different conferences did, where they rank would be very interesting. And then of course doing a preview of the conference races. I will be honest when I ranked the conferenced I did not particularly look at depth, I kind of don’t care whether the three SIMs at the bottom of a conference are worse than the Sim at the bottom of another conference., but I can tell you that WIS and GUESS do care, so hence some of the differences between my conference rankings and those of those two instances. For today I will only start with part 1, which only includes the bottom 3 conferences. The remaining 9 are coming in tomorrow. I have it basically written, but kind of want to wait to adjust the rankings to some of the day 5 results.

12. MIAA GUESS ranking: 10^th, WIS ranking after day 4: 9^th, Current record: 14-34

Honestly, this conference is a mess right now, there is not one team that is an obvious playoff team. That said, it promises to be quite a fun mess, since there is not really one clear favorite for the title. Several teams are underranked by GUESS, due to having missed one or two recruiting classes, but actually having some good talent on the roster. Moreover several teams are currently on a clear upward trajectory or have coaches who only just started their building process (Pittsburg State, Lock haven, Southwest Baptist, Truman State).

The favorite:  Washburn Topeka (2-2)

Contenders: NW Missouri State (2-2), Central Missouri State (1-3), Cheyney (3-1)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Truman State (0-4)

Washburn Topeka missed this seasons recruiting class. As a consequence there is good talent at the top, but lack of depth, particularly at d-line. The OOC sched was grueling and brought losses, that might leave WB-Topeka with the necessity to win the conference in order to get to the playoffs. NWMS’s emoney came over from Mars Hill to take over for bball s two season effort. The consequence is probably the deepest team in the conference, but a team that is still lacking a good senior class. CM State is just a SIM with loads of senior experience and actually some talent, and at Pittsburg State gdplayer took over a new. The team is currently fringe playoff, has decent depth, but is devoid of star players

Due to 2 missed recruiting classes, there is a cruel lack of depth on most defensive positions and particularly on the O-line of Cheyney. But there are some really nice skill players on the O, and the OOC results looked surprisingly good so far. Truman State is a startup. Despite some losses, I was impressed by how coach douglaslee performed in OOC games vs superior competition, suggesting real quality game planning.

Top 3 regular season games:

I could have named a lot more games, as it is hard to predict which teams will be playing for the championship in the end.

1.      Washburn Topeka – CMSU on day 7

2.      Cheyney vs Lock haven on day 13

Might game planning pro bball find a way to steal the south. The talent is probably not yet therem but who knows

3.      NWMS vs Pittsburg state on day 11

Possibly the final for the north

11. NCC, GUESS rankings: 12^th, WIS ranking after day 4: 11^th , Current record: 16-32

Despite guess having this conference as the worst, the truth is that it is the home to one of the teams I felt the most uneasy about not putting it into the top ten. Long term though, this conference is the one where a newbie could get fastest to the top if he took a team next season, as no team had a GUESS recruiting ranking better than 49^th! There was just a sad amount of coaches who failed to recruit this season.

The favorite: Humboldt State (3-1)

Contenders: St Cloud State (1-3)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Central Washington, South Dakota State (3-1), Minnesota State (2-2), North Dakota (0-4)

If you are only looking at the upperclassmen Humboldt State is a top 5 team nationally. But it missed the recruiting this season, and nastee still needs to prove his game planning qualities. That said, this season Humbold state is the clear favorite. The only real challenger is St. Cloud state which is possibly also slightly underranked in GUESS, but shouldn’t really stand a chance. SDSU failed to recruit, but there is a real talented senior class with really good skill position players. The O is way ahead of the D. North Dakota also missed half its recruiting class, and does not have the seniors SDSU has. But things should improve for jjenson next season.

Top 3 regular season games:

1.      Humboldt St vs St Cloud State on day 6

Probably a preview of the CCG

2.      St Cloud State vs SDSU on day 9

Possibly for the East

3.      St Cloud State vs Central Washington on day 7

Dodgersfan needs this one probably to keep winning the east in his own hands

10. RMAC GUESS ranking 11^th, WIS ranking after day 4: 12^th , Current record: 16-32

The favorite: Western State (4-0)

Contenders: None

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Colorado Mines (4-0)

This conference is always a fast story: you have a national title contender in Western State and then …. Nothing… then you got Colorado Mines, which is a legit playoff team, but not really good enough to challenge a team like Western state. And after Colorado Mines you got again… nothing. Not even any sort of impressive SIM teams

1.      Colorado Mines vs Western State on day 7

Honestly the only regular season game really worth keeping an eye on

2.      Western State vs Fort Hays state on day 11

The only other game with slight upset chances… but not really

3.      Western State vs Fort Lewis, day 10

Good read.

Interesting.

Good read. I played Humboldt and can verify that Dachman's assessment is valid. Really solid team for this year and probably next until the recruiting starts to hurt a bit.

And here is the second part, the bigger part:

9. South Atlantic Conference GUESS ranking: 4^th, WIS ranking after day 5: 7^th current record: 30-30

I ranked this conference a good bit lower than GUESS, because as of now, I don’t really see any team that threatens to reach the final 4. That said, this conference has depth, and excitement. There is not really one clear favorite but there is a whole bunch of contenders who have legit shots at the conference crown and the playoffs. Even the pretenders have better shots than in some other conferences.

The favorite: Newberry? (4-1)

The Contenders: Mars Hill (3-2), Glenville State (4-1), West Virginia Tech (5-0)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Carson-Newman (3-2), Lenoir-Rhyne (3-2)

Due to being 3 time defending Conference Champion and 3 top ten WIS rankings in a row, Newberry is probably the favorite by default, despite not leading in the GUESS rankings due to a lackluster recruiting class combined with a really small senior class. But arguments for other teams being the favorite are legit. One important thing in Newberrys favor is the cupcakish cross division schedule. Mars Hill has the highest GUESS ranking. And yes it is a SIM, but it is a SIM with both human created talent and depth. Glennville has a star running back and both quality and depth provided by what might be the most stable recruiting of the conference, but then again there is some youth on the defensive side. They also profit from an easy cross division sched. West Virginia Tech is a very similar story, and had the best time in OOC of all teams. It is another team with a star RB that is closing in, and proved in the playoffs last season, that it can take advantage of opportunities that present themselves, yet young at several key positions. Their cross division sched does them no favors though. Carson-Newman is currently improving its recruiting fast, which is bound to bring it into the conversation soon, and might already score a few upsets over the favorites this season. Lenoir Rhyne has the talent to get to the playoffs or score a few upsets as well, but needs to prove a few things game planning wise in order to get there, and is not helped by a tough cross division schedule.

Even Catawba, which really is too young to have a shot at anything this season is coming along nicely.

Top 3 games:

So many to chose from J

1.      Newberry vs Glenville

This promises to be fun and have conference and seeding implications.

2.      Mars Hill vs West Virginia Tech on day 8

If tinytide wants to keep up with the other West teams a W here would really help. Its not gonna be easy.

3.      Carson Newman vs Lenoir Rhyne on day 7

A Game both will likely need to keep playoff and division title hopes alive

 

8. GSC, GUESS ranking: 7^th, WIS ranking after day 5: 5^th, current record: 37-23

At the top, the GSC has a clear favorite in Delta State this season. But the GSC is also notable for a whole number of coaches who have come in in the past few seasons (North Alabama, West Alabama, West Georgia and Monticello) and are starting to build, but are currently probably still a decentish bit outside the top 30. That said, with all the cupcake wins the conference has accumulated in OOC, one or two of them may get in anyway.

The favorite: Delta State (5-0)

Contenders: Central Arkansas (5-0), Valdosta State (5-0)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: West Georgia (4-1), Arkansas-Monticello (5-0), West Alabama (4-1), North Alabama (5-0)

This seasons Delta State is a particularly experienced squad, which will make it tough on Valdosta State to upset them in the division. UCA somehow have an easy cross division and are thus even more likely to get to the final, where I don’t see them as the favorite if they have to beat Delta state. West Georgia looks like the fourth strongest team, but it will be tough to get to the playoffs. UAM and North Alabama also managed to dominate their mostly cupcake schedule, and might be in position to get to the playoffs, but particularly North Alabama will have to perform above their talent level in conference to get there.

Top 3 regular season games

1.      Delta State vs Valdosta State

2.      UCA vs West Georgia on day 10

Probably the deciding battle for the north

3.      West Georgia vs Ark-Monticello on day 7

A game both sides might need to keep at large chances alive.

7. CIAA GUESS ranking: 9^th, WIS ranking after day 5: 4th, current record: 27-33

To be honest the CIAA is not really deep, basically it is NCCU and Virginia State. But then again those two are contenders for the Natty, and just managed to come pretty decently out of really tough OOC schedules. A few overperforming SIMs and underlings have managed to further improve the SOS the conference will have. That will be helpful WIS ranking wise. For those other teams looking to make pierce the bubble.

Top teams

The favorite: NCCU (5-0)

Contenders: Virginia State (4-1)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Bowie Sate (1-4), Winston Salem State (4-1), Virginia Union (4-1)

I don’t think I need to mention much about NCCU and Virginia state, two proven commodities. Winston Salem State had me slightly surprised, with its OOC record. The team is super young, but apparently pointed in the right direction. With the strong WIS ranking, maybe there is space for getting into the playoff field. Bowie State also has just started undergoing a new building process.

Top 3 regular season games

1.      NCCU-Virginia State, on season day 8

A national title contender vs what could legitimately be one of the ten best teams. Almost certainly a preview of the championship game

2.      Bowie State vs Virginia State on season day 9

Probably the game that decides the east. Likely a clear thing for VS

3.      Bowie State vs Gannon, on season day 11

If Bowie State want any shot at an at large, they will need this one

6. NEC-10 GUESS rankings: 6^th, WIS ranking after day 5: 10^th current record: 30-30

I was going to rank this conference higher, but then it underperformed in OOC. Or rather it performed accordingly to the decently tough schedules all the human teams played, but they incurred all the expected losses without any upsets of their own. Whoever comes out of the east is likely to win the conference. That said both division races hold interest.

Top teams

The Favorite: Bryant (4-1)

Contenders: Long Island (3-2)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Stonehill (2-3), Assumption (5-0)

Stonehill comes in with a real disadvantage over Assumption, due to having 2 vs 0 of the conferences best 2 teams in cross division. Moreover getting to the playoffs could be tough, seing as they scheduled 3 games against national title contenders, but lost all three of them. Performing in conference is now necessary. Assumption on the other hand played cupcakes, which along with its cupkace cross division, will allow for a great record, but also leave them with a bad SOS that will not allow for any slip ups.

Top 3 regular season games:

1.      Bryant vs Long Island

Some sort of final ahead of the final

2.      Stonehill vs Assumption on day 9

A game with high implications for both winning the division and making the playoffs

3.      Stonehill vs Long Island on day 7

Due to the OOC losses, this could have high playoff implications, particularly for Stonehill.

5. GLIAC GUESS ranking: 8^th, WIS ranking after day 5: 2^nd current record: 37-23

The GLIAC could be fun. Ferris State and GVSU are the favorites in their divisions, but due to schedule issues and because the second best team in those divisions is not that far behind, this could be interesting. I initially had this conference ranked lower… but then it mostly performed in OOC. That said, I don’t really see any team other than Ferris State with a shot at the final four.

The favorite:  Ferris State (4-1)

Contenders: Findlay (5-0)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: GVSU (3-2), Saginaw Valley (4-1), Wayne State (4-1)

4 seasons ago, Jmayhew only filled half his class at Ferris State. So there might be some suffering of that this season. Then again there is a big junior class, to go with the remaining 10 seniors. This team may actually not be much more talented than Findlay. That said Ferris State is a talented and decently experienced team with an experienced gameplanner, something Findlay doesn’t boast, and has a slate of impressive OOC wins to show for it. The Guess ratings are under ranking this Findlay team, due to one bad recruiting class, which are currently freshmen. In other words talentwise this team is actually close to Ferris state… but no coach  means they’ll be predictable. GVSUs Atelgenhof really has something building here. With the best recruiting class ths sason, he’ll be challenging for championships soon…. Actually he’ll probably get a shot in this seasons CCG. Can skeez get over the hump and into the playoffs with SVSU, or possibly upset GVSU to get to the CCG? Neither is likely, but there is a shot. Winning the east might be the more possible, as SVSU has a super easy cross division sched, while GVSU might  suffer losses in its hard cross division schedule. I initially totally did not have Wayne State on the program, but the good OOC record has me putting Qcifers team on the playoff radar.

Top 3 regular season games

1.      Ferris State vs Findlay on day 11

Likely the game that will decide the West and the conference

2.      GVSU vs Findlay on day 7

Well this will be a tough one. If GVSU wants to win the east, then not collecting two losses in cross division might be necessary. This is the more probable one to win.

3.      Ferris State vs GVSU on day 6

This could be a preview of the conference final

4. Lone Star Conference GUESS ranking: 5^th, WIS ranking 3^rd after day 5: current record: 36-24

This conference has 3 potential top 20 teams and another that is challenging for the playoffs. Fun. Also I am biased here of course J. After slightly underperforming in OOC last season, the conference did slightly better this season, and the big dogs accumulated very few losses.

The Favorite: Oklahoma Durant (5-0).

Contenders:  Abilene Christian (5-0), Central Oklahoma (4-1)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs:  Texas A&M commerce (4-1), Angelo State (5-0)?

SEO is the defending champion and the GUESS ratings also proclaim it the favorite. That said, this is no done deal. Among the primary contenders, UCO has the better O, ACU has the better D. Texas A&M commerce will need two upsets to win the conferences, which is unlikely, but maybe a playoff run could be possible. The big class are sophomores, so the big push is likely to come in the next two seasons. And Angelo States season start might make the playoffs also a possibility for this SIM

 

Top 3 regular season games:

1.      SEO vs UCO on day 12

This game probably decides the north

2.      SEO vs Abilene Christian on day 8

3.      Texas A&M Commerce vs Abilene Christian on day 11

This game probably decides the south.

 

3. Northern Sun GUESS rankings: 3^rd, WIS ranking after day 5: 6^th, current record: 33-27

Well this is a rebuild year for Crookston, so this the season when northern state might just be able to pull the upset and maybe win the conference. Behind those two are two teams closing in.

Top teams

The favorite:  Minnesota Crookston, (5-0)

Contenders: Northern State (4-1)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: Minnesota Duluth (4-1), West Virginia State (4-1)

UMC is super talented, but with only 15 upperclassmen turnovers and upsets might happen every once in a while. Just how much talent… well it was enough to upset slippery rock. Then again the others need the talent to take advantage Northern Sate has particularly on the O some really great players, and all it takes to pounce, should UMC give up some turnovers in their games. It feels like Duluth played half the MIAA, but there were a few nice wins in OOC and the challenge for the playoffs remains a live. West Virginia State somehow managed to get into the playoffs last season, and is looking to repeat that feat with a better team this season.

Top 3 regular season games:

1.      Crookston-Northern State on day 7

Probably a preview of the CCG

2.      West Virginia State vs Northern State on day 11

This game is probably for the north

3.      Crookston vs Duluth on day 9

This game is probably for the south.

 

2. SIAC, GUESS ranking: 2^nd, WIS ranking after day 5: 8^th, current record: 28-32

Clearly the second best conference for GUESS. There are not only real national contenders, but also some depth to back it up. Only WIS does not agree, because of all those SIMs that got really beat up in OOC, and because Lane and Kentucky State dominated mostly cupcake schedules instead of punching in their own weight class. I don’t really care too much for the SIMs resuts. But it will be a problem for where the teams will be seeded in the playoffs… or whether they will make it at all.

The Favorite: Quincy (5-0)

Contenders Lane (5-0), Kentucky State (5-0)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: St Josephs (2-3), Albany State (1-4)

Kentucky State is basically by default the north champ, despite only having 18 upper classmen. They are likelyto get past Albany State, which is decentish with a human recruited senior class and experienced as far as SIMs go, but is unlikely to really pose a problem. But beating the south champ with a team this young will be tough for Kentucky State. The Final four and a conference title the previous season make Quincy the favorite, combined with consequently good recruiting. This is not say that former champion Champou2000 and his Lane team don’t have a real shot at getting back on top of the conference. But the team is currently rather young. And then there is outsider St. joseph, who needs an upset or two along the way, to make up for the not ideal OOC results (particularly that loss to Michigan tech), and to get into the playoffs anyway.

 

Top 3 games

1.      Quincy vs Lane on day 12

Probably two top ten teams, going against each other for their division title.

2.      Kentucky State vs Lane on day 6

The best test for Kentucky State before what is highly likely to be the CCG

3.      Lane vs Saint Josephs on day 13

If Lanes game vs Quincy was not the division decider, then this will be. It might also have playoff implication, particularly for St. Josephs.

1. PSAC, GUESS ranking: 1^st, WIS ranking after day 5: 1^st, current record: 44-16

The PSAC is currently the uncontested king of all conferences. That said, its top teams did incur a few more OOC losses than in previous seasons. Not enough though to change the perception that there are 8 teams here that all have very realistic shots at the playoffs…. And funnily by winning more than usually, the SIMs just made up for any hit to the SOS that the PSAC might have taken.

The favorite: Slippery Rock (3-2)

The Contenders: Kutztown (4-1), East Stroudsburg (4-1), Mansfield (5-0), Edinboro (4-1), Millersville (4-1), Indiana (5-0)

Conference Pretenders and/or teams just angling for the playoffs: California (5-0)

Slippery Rock is the default favorite, 6 time defending champion, a national champion that is essentially as good or better as the season before. That said it is time someone throws jilin05 of his pedestal, and there are plenty of contenders who might get tired of getting passed by. And yes it was a rock hard OOC schedule as always, the kind where it is no shame to lose a game or two. Still… already two teams have managed to beat Slippery rock in OOC, including a very young Minnesota Crookston. Proving it should also be possible, for some conference foes. In my season preview I had mentioned Kutztown as the team with the best shot at doing that, followed by east stroudsburgh, who both also meet slippery rock already in cross division. Kutztowns team ought to be better than last season, simply due to now having 27 upperclassmen. East Stroudsburg has a well balanced team, that probably needs to take advantage this or next season, before its current upperclassmen graduate. Mansfield is probably the third best challenger for the east, and also has the advantage to not have to play slippery rock. But this does not mean their cross divison schedule is easy. Fotman built an offense with good experienced players at every position. Considering the high level of the PSAC the defensive back seven might not quite be as good though. With Millersvilles mojolad there is a fourth serious contender for the east, lead by an experienced coach who knows what he is doing. On the high level of the PSAC, line depth might also be the problem here, but particularly on the offensive side this team is set to improve next season. While it may take a hit on the D side after this season, the D is currently full of experienced hands and is likely to wreck some havoc. Slippery Rocks primary contender in the west is probably Edinboro which had a good OOC, but suffered the expected loss to western state. With the biggest class being freshmen, this may be a slight rebuilding season. That said, the team has very good lines. But at this level of competition, starting a RS sophomore at QB may be a disadvantage. Indiana is also in the same category as Edinboro, but compared to the competition it lacks maybe a bit in line depth. On both sides it only does one formation…. but it does it really well.

Calling any of these teams pretenders is  a stretch seeing as they are all teams who could progress a few rounds should they reach the playoffs. But then again doesn’t  have not to get one, but two, three or four upsets done to win the conference, which will be tough seeing the competition. Yet they both started flawless into the season. In any other conference California would be considered a contender and legit playoff team, but in the PSAC the overall talent level, and particularly the comparitive lack of depth at linebacker makes winning the division an uphill battle. Still having gone 5-0 in OOC gives them a fair shot to make the tournament even in this shark tank. That said, even with improving SOS numbers they will likely need to spring an upset or two to get in.

My top 3 games

(again…. So many to chose from)

1.      Slippery Rock vs Kutztown on day 7

Maybe Kutztown can help itself and all the west teeams in the quest to unseat Slippery Rock

2.      East Stroudsburg vs Mansfield on day 13

There is a good possibility that the east gets decided on the last day. If it does, then this game will probably hold one or both of the teams to watch.

3.      Millersville vs Edinboro on day 7

For both teams the difference between winning and losing here might be the difference between contending for the conference championship and having to scramble for the rest of the season in order to not fall of the playoff bubble.

4.      Indiana vs California on day 9

California probably needs an upset somewhere down the line to make the playoffs. This may be the best of quite a few shots

Outstanding!

Awesome.  Fun to read.

This is really awesome Dachmann. Great for the game, for the league and most of all great for giving Mojolad a bit of reading pleasure.  You obviously put some serious time into this.  Thanks!

Posted by fotman on 3/31/2015 8:30:00 AM (view original):
This is really awesome Dachmann. Great for the game, for the league and most of all great for giving Mojolad a bit of reading pleasure.  You obviously put some serious time into this.  Thanks!

Don't tell my girlfriend or my boss
Living in Europe and having results come in after coming home from work helps though... at least with the boss.

If this was around when I coached Washburn-Topeka, I may not have left for D1-AA. Excellent stuff.

Again, adding to the experience in a tremendous way... thanks dachmann! ...and thanks for giving Cal a puncher's chance ;)

Thank You. This blog add to my enjoyment of the game ! 
             PS: A Shocker at the half with Kutztown kicking Slippery Rock's butt at 21-7 . Oh the mighty Jlin, "Say It Aint So"   

Posted by mojolad on 4/1/2015 3:28:00 AM (view original):
Thank You. This blog add to my enjoyment of the game ! 
             PS: A Shocker at the half with Kutztown kicking Slippery Rock's butt at 21-7 . Oh the mighty Jlin, "Say It Aint So"   

That has me thinking... what do you guys think is the upset of the season so far.

No doubt it is the week 13 drumming of Badaxe's East Stroudsburg by Mansfield!!   OH wait you said so far ???   I originally thought it was Crookston laying the hammer on Slippery Rock but after looking at Nacorwin's team I think he should win the NC so I will have to go with NC Central handily beating SR. I am not trying to be a SR lover here but I think talent wise his team is still top of the list so anyone beating him deserves props no matter his rating.  

Dachmann I to am working on the other side of the globe so that explains our post time but Mojolad has no excuse!!!

I too think NC Central vs Slippery Rock. SR has a great team but I really think he's on auto pilot.
        Both you and Fotman are Over The Pond , huh ?   Could you tell me what countries ?  I am really curious....