College Football Week 5 Picks and Predictions From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 5 Picks and Predictions

Week 5 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

WhatIfSports.com
September 23, 2013

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2013 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Wisconsin at Ohio State

Braxton Miller is Ohio State's starting quarterback. This was the message Buckeyes' head coach Urban Meyer relayed to the media following Ohio State's 76-0 dismantling of Florida A&M last Saturday.

Miller's understudy, Kenny Guiton, has made a case to earn the starting gig following back-to-back wins at California and against the Rattlers. He's completed over 68 percent of his passes this season for 664 yards and 13 touchdowns - a school-record six against Florida A&M - with two interceptions and 92 rush yards against the Golden Bears. Now, coach Meyer's message to the media did come with a caveat that Guiton has earned playing time. How exactly Meyer and his offensive coordinators decide to utilize the tag-team quarterbacks isn't exactly clear.

Despite the passing prowess of Guiton, the Bucks still love to run the rock. They are sixth in the country at 311 rush yards per game. Jordan Hall has averaged over six yards per carry this season for over 400 yards and eight touchdowns. However, Carlos Hyde has returned from suspension and is working his way back up the depth chart in time for the Badgers. He carried the ball five times for 41 yards against the Rattlers in limited action. I think Hall and Hyde share the workload on Saturday night.

Even with a couple flubs on defense, against Buffalo Week 1 and at Cal Week 3, the Buckeyes still rank in the Top 15 in total defense (280.3 yards allowed per game) and Top 25 in points allowed (15.3).

The Badgers destroyed their first two opponents, Massachusetts and Tennessee Tech, by a combined score of 93-0. They then traveled to Arizona State and got hosed by the refs in the game's final seconds. Whether or not their kicker would have booted the game-winning field goal is debatable, but the Pac-12 commish publically criticized the officials' handling of the situation. If not for that, the Badgers would be 4-0, following a win over Purdue last Saturday, heading into their game against Ohio State.

The team lost Montee Ball to the NFL, but this backfield doesn't rebuild, it reloads. The three-headed running-back-by-committee is led by senior James White with 61 carries for 442 yards and three touchdowns, but we can't ignore sophomore sensation Melvin Gordon's 11.8 yards per rush on 53 carries! He's scored seven touchdowns in 2013. Corey Clement rounds out the RBBC with 44 carries for 334 yards and four scores.

It's truly hard to gauge the Badgers' defense with wins over a low-end FBS school, an FCS school and Purdue, which is ranked 78th in our WhatIfSports.com college football power rankings. In their only true test, Arizona State racked up 32 points on their defense.

We simulated the Badgers and Buckeyes 101 times and it's the Buckeyes winning 70.3 percent of the time by an average score of 25-19.

College Football Week 5
MatchupWin%Avg Score 
Wake Forest Demon Deacons16.817Boxscore
@ Clemson Tigers83.230 
East Carolina Pirates30.723Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels69.330 
Central Michigan Chippewas32.720Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack67.328 
Troy Trojans40.125Boxscore
@ Duke Blue Devils59.927 
Virginia Cavaliers41.619Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers58.422 
Virginia Tech Hokies46.021Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets54.022 
Florida State Seminoles78.726Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles21.318 
Wisconsin Badgers29.719Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes70.325 
Miami (OH) RedHawks30.720Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini69.327 
Iowa Hawkeyes49.521Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers50.522 
Northern Illinois Huskies62.427Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers37.622 
Akron Zips25.719Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons74.327 
Toledo Rockets44.629Boxscore
@ Ball State Cardinals55.430 
Kent State Golden Flashes51.524Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos48.523 
Connecticut Huskies57.421Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls42.620 
California Golden Bears21.818Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks78.229 
Colorado Buffaloes36.122Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers63.927 
USC Trojans40.123Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils59.924 
Arizona Wildcats47.524Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies52.526 
Stanford Cardinal67.824Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars32.217 
UAB Blazers17.816Boxscore
@ Vanderbilt Commodores82.228 
Arkansas State Red Wolves27.720Boxscore
@ Missouri Tigers72.329 
Ole Miss Rebels29.720Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide70.327 
South Alabama Jaguars35.621Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers64.427 
LSU Tigers39.622Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs60.425 
Texas A&M Aggies79.229Boxscore
@ Arkansas Razorbacks20.821 
Florida Gators83.225Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats16.816 
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders33.720Boxscore
@ BYU Cougars66.326 
Oklahoma Sooners53.524Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish46.522 
Temple Owls63.424Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals36.621 
San Diego State Aztecs74.827Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies25.219 
SMU Mustangs27.719Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs72.325 
Oklahoma State Cowboys71.829Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers28.222 
Florida Atlantic Owls30.720Boxscore
@ Rice Owls69.328 
Army Black Knights45.525Boxscore
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs54.526 
Iowa State Cyclones55.424Boxscore
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane44.623 
Houston Cougars56.429Boxscore
@ Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners43.628 
Southern Miss Golden Eagles17.817Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos82.229 
UTEP Miners39.623Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams60.426 
Air Force Falcons45.524Boxscore
@ Nevada Wolf Pack54.527 
UNLV Rebels47.523Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos52.524 
Utah State Aggies68.329Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans31.724 
Fresno State Bulldogs85.629Boxscore
@ Hawaii Rainbow Warriors14.416 
Tulane Green Wave44.124Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks55.926 
Navy Midshipmen57.425Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers42.624 
Wyoming Cowboys64.930Boxscore
@ Texas State Bobcats35.124 
South Carolina Gamecocks59.425Boxscore
@ UCF Knights40.621 
Miami (FL) Hurricanes92.131Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls 7.916 
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Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.

Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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