College Football Week 4 Picks and Predictions From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 4 Picks and Predictions

Week 4 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

WhatIfSports.com
September 16, 2013

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2013 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Arizona State at Stanford

For the first time in two years, Arizona State has cracked the Top 25 {insert flashing asterisk}.

The Sun Devils were on the verge of a last-second defeat when Pac-12 officials failed to properly communicate with the Wisconsin offense that the clock had not stopped after quarterback Joel Stave attempted to take a knee. The Badgers thought the play was dead. Arizona State thought Stave's knee never hit the ground and it was a fumble. The officials weren't thinking and thus the clock continued to run down. Before Stave could snap off another play and kill the clock, time had expired.

The 2-0 Sun Devils head into Week 4 with a little bit of luck on their side and a tough opponent in Stanford on the schedule. It's the first time the two schools have played each other since 2010. ASU managed to beat its first opponent, Sacramento State, 55-0 via the pass. Taylor Kelly finished with 300 yards with five touchdowns and no interceptions.

Kelly racked up 352 pass yards against the Badgers, but it was Marion Grice who found the zone four times on 22 carries (84 yards) that paced the offense last Saturday.

The Sun Devils defense is sneaky good. They finished inside the Top 40 in total and scoring defense in 2012 and through two games this season are ranked 21st in total defense.

Army's football program may only pass 10 times a game, but the Black Knights gave the Cardinal a ballgame in the first half last weekend. Army only trailed by seven at the break. Stanford outscored the Knights 14-7 to win 34-20 at West Point. It's worth noting, considering Grice's four TD-game effort against Wisconsin, that Army racked up 284 yards on the ground (4.7 YPR). Stanford is 15th in total defense through two games this season and finished 11th in scoring defense last year (17.2 PPGA).

Although it's only two games, the Cardinal playmakers are evident. Quarterback Kevin Hogan has completed over 62 percent of his passes for nearly 400 yards with five touchdowns and an interception. His favorite target is Ty Montgomery who has hauled in 10 receptions for over 200 yards with two scores. Taylor Gaffney leads the running back corps with 236 yards on 40 carries (5.9 YPR) with three trips to the zone.

We simulated the Cardinal and Sun Devils 101 times and it's Stanford winning 53.5 percent of the time by an average score of 23-22.

College Football Week 4
MatchupWin%Avg Score 
Bethune-Cookman Wildcats 5.07Boxscore
@ Florida State Seminoles95.054 
Savannah State Tigers 5.08Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes95.053 
VMI Keydets 5.07Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers95.045 
Marshall Thundering Herd27.220Boxscore
@ Virginia Tech Hokies72.827 
Tulane Green Wave32.722Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange67.327 
North Carolina Tar Heels43.624Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets56.425 
West Virginia Mountaineers45.523Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins54.525 
Pittsburgh Panthers62.424Boxscore
@ Duke Blue Devils37.620 
Clemson Tigers78.229Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack21.818 
South Dakota State Jackrabbits 5.08Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers95.051 
Maine Black Bears 5.07Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats95.050 
Florida A&M Rattlers 5.08Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes95.053 
Kent State Golden Flashes17.817Boxscore
@ Penn State Nittany Lions82.228 
Western Michigan Broncos26.718Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes73.327 
Purdue Boilermakers29.718Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers70.327 
San Jose State Spartans47.523Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers52.524 
Missouri Tigers54.524Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers45.523 
Eastern Illinois Panthers 5.06Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies95.047 
Murray State Racers 5.09Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons95.045 
Austin Peay Governors 5.06Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats95.042 
Toledo Rockets58.929Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas41.125 
Ball State Cardinals68.330Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles31.723 
Cincinnati Bearcats82.229Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks17.817 
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns84.231Boxscore
@ Akron Zips15.821 
Vanderbilt Commodores95.033Boxscore
@ Massachusetts Minutemen 5.010 
Idaho State Bengals 5.08Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies95.050 
New Mexico State Aggies 8.917Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins91.134 
Idaho Vandals12.917Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars87.128 
Utah State Aggies29.722Boxscore
@ USC Trojans70.328 
Arizona State Sun Devils46.522Boxscore
@ Stanford Cardinal53.523 
Colorado State Rams 6.912Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide93.133 
North Texas Mean Green 6.919Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs93.133 
SMU Mustangs10.918Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies89.134 
Troy Trojans26.722Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs73.330 
Auburn Tigers30.719Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers69.324 
Tennessee Volunteers37.621Boxscore
@ Florida Gators62.424 
Michigan State Spartans44.620Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish55.423 
Utah Utes60.422Boxscore
@ BYU Cougars39.618 
Wake Forest Demon Deacons62.424Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights37.620 
Texas State Bobcats17.820Boxscore
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders82.233 
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks25.723Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears74.331 
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs29.222Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks70.829 
Kansas State Wildcats47.524Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns52.525 
Northwestern State Demons 5.08Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers95.042 
Houston Cougars46.525Boxscore
@ Rice Owls53.527 
Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners50.527Boxscore
@ UTEP Miners49.524 
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders68.328Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls31.721 
Western Illinois Leathernecks 5.07Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels95.044 
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors34.721Boxscore
@ Nevada Wolf Pack65.327 
Boise State Broncos39.625Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs60.428 
Wyoming Cowboys54.526Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons45.525 
Oregon State Beavers72.328Boxscore
@ San Diego State Aztecs27.720 
Morgan State Bears 5.08Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers95.042 
Jacksonville State Gamecocks 5.010Boxscore
@ Georgia State Panthers95.031 
FIU Golden Panthers 5.914Boxscore
@ Louisville Cardinals94.136 
Arkansas Razorbacks50.524Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights49.523 
Arkansas State Red Wolves52.525Boxscore
@ Memphis Tigers47.524 
Michigan Wolverines75.229Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies24.818 
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Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.

Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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