Week 11 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game
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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.
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The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.
Game of the Week: LSU at Alabama
Once again, the Alabama Crimson Tide boasts an undefeated record and No. 1 ranking heading into November. But let's be honest, their recent schedule hasn't been a gauntlet of Goliaths. The combined record of Alabama's last four opponents is 9-26 (.346). Yuck. Their last challenge came against Johnny Football and Texas A&M the second week of September.
A.J. McCarron has completed over 69 percent of his passes with 16 touchdowns and only three interceptions. T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake have combined for over 1,200 yards and 18 touchdowns. The two are averaging seven yards per carry. McCarron spreads the wealth in the passing game as four receivers each have 20 or more receptions on the season.
True to tradition, Alabama's scoring defense is tops in the nation at less than 10 points allowed per game. They are fifth in total defense, allowing less than 285 yards per game.
LSU limps into the matchup with a 3-2 record in their last five games. Losses at Georgia and Mississippi dropped the Tigers to 13th in the country. However, their back-loaded schedule could help boost them back into the BCS conversation. After their trip to Tuscaloosa, LSU hosts Texas A&M next week.
Zach Mettenberger has completed 65 percent of his passes for nearly 2,500 yards with 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions.
Sophomore running back Jeremy Hill has rushed for nearly 200 more yards (922) on 14 fewer attempts year-over-year with 12 touchdowns. Hill is averaging 7.2 yards per rush.
Receivers Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry are closing in on 2,000 yards combined with 18 touchdowns scored.
The Bayou Bengals defense has regressed a tad year-over-year. They finished the 2012 season with an eighth-ranked total and 12th-ranked scoring defense. Fast forward to November 4, 2013 and LSU is 31st in scoring (21.9 PAPG) and 21st in total defense (351.7 YAPG).
We simulated the Tigers and Tide 101 times and it's Alabama winning 68.8 percent of the time by an average score of 26-19.
Please note: The Virginia-North Carolina game was resimulated on 11/6 to account for injuries and roster updates.
College Football Week 11
|North Carolina State Wolfpack||33.2||21||Boxscore|
|@ Duke Blue Devils||66.8||27|
|@ Maryland Terrapins||61.4||23|
|@ North Carolina Tar Heels||54.5||21|
|Virginia Tech Hokies||48.5||21||Boxscore|
|@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes||51.5||22|
|Notre Dame Fighting Irish||69.3||24||Boxscore|
|@ Pittsburgh Panthers||30.7||17|
|Florida State Seminoles||87.1||30||Boxscore|
|@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons||12.9||15|
|@ Wisconsin Badgers||62.4||24|
|Illinois Fighting Illini||40.6||24||Boxscore|
|@ Indiana Hoosiers||59.4||26|
|@ Michigan Wolverines||58.4||23|
|Penn State Nittany Lions||45.5||21||Boxscore|
|@ Minnesota Golden Gophers||54.5||22|
|@ Purdue Boilermakers||19.3||16|
|Central Michigan Chippewas||25.7||25||Boxscore|
|@ Ball State Cardinals||74.3||32|
|Western Michigan Broncos||48.5||24||Boxscore|
|@ Eastern Michigan Eagles||51.5||25|
|@ Buffalo Bulls||50.5||21|
|Bowling Green Falcons||85.1||30||Boxscore|
|@ Miami (OH) RedHawks||14.9||14|
|@ Washington Huskies||81.7||30|
|@ Arizona Wildcats||46.5||26|
|Arizona State Sun Devils||56.4||23||Boxscore|
|@ Utah Utes||43.6||22|
|@ Stanford Cardinal||40.1||22|
|@ California Golden Bears||29.7||20|
|Appalachian State Mountaineers||5.0||8||Boxscore|
|@ Georgia Bulldogs||95.0||47|
|@ Ole Miss Rebels||72.3||26|
|Mississippi State Bulldogs||31.7||25||Boxscore|
|@ Texas A&M Aggies||68.3||31|
|@ Alabama Crimson Tide||68.8||26|
|@ Florida Gators||53.0||18|
|@ Tennessee Volunteers||35.6||19|
|@ Kentucky Wildcats||27.7||18|
|Old Dominion Monarchs||5.0||10||Boxscore|
|@ Idaho Vandals||95.0||36|
|Hawaii Rainbow Warriors||30.7||19||Boxscore|
|@ Navy Midshipmen||69.3||25|
|Boston College Eagles||71.3||30||Boxscore|
|@ New Mexico State Aggies||28.7||20|
|Western Kentucky Hilltoppers||70.8||26||Boxscore|
|@ Army Black Knights||29.2||19|
|@ Oklahoma State Cowboys||78.2||29|
|@ Baylor Bears||55.9||25|
|Kansas State Wildcats||45.5||25||Boxscore|
|@ Texas Tech Red Raiders||54.5||28|
|TCU Horned Frogs||55.9||22||Boxscore|
|@ Iowa State Cyclones||44.1||20|
|@ West Virginia Mountaineers||27.7||21|
|@ North Texas Mean Green||69.3||28|
|FIU Golden Panthers||30.7||19||Boxscore|
|@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders||69.3||26|
|@ Marshall Thundering Herd||63.4||31|
|Tulsa Golden Hurricane||39.6||21||Boxscore|
|@ East Carolina Pirates||60.4||23|
|Southern Miss Golden Eagles||42.6||23||Boxscore|
|@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs||57.4||24|
|Tulane Green Wave||47.5||26||Boxscore|
|@ Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners||52.5||27|
|Air Force Falcons||42.6||23||Boxscore|
|@ New Mexico Lobos||57.4||25|
|San Diego State Aztecs||46.5||23||Boxscore|
|@ San Jose State Spartans||53.5||24|
|Nevada Wolf Pack||48.5||25||Boxscore|
|@ Colorado State Rams||51.5||26|
|Utah State Aggies||51.5||27||Boxscore|
|@ UNLV Rebels||48.5||26|
|Fresno State Bulldogs||77.2||34||Boxscore|
|@ Wyoming Cowboys||22.8||25|
|Arkansas State Red Wolves||41.6||22||Boxscore|
|@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks||58.4||25|
|@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns||56.4||29|
|@ Memphis Tigers||95.0||40|
|@ Cincinnati Bearcats||60.4||25|
|@ UCF Knights||51.5||28|
|@ Connecticut Huskies||13.9||15|
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