College Football Week 11 Picks and Predictions From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 11 Picks and Predictions

Week 11 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

WhatIfSports.com
UPDATE: November 6, 2013

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2013 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: LSU at Alabama

Once again, the Alabama Crimson Tide boasts an undefeated record and No. 1 ranking heading into November. But let's be honest, their recent schedule hasn't been a gauntlet of Goliaths. The combined record of Alabama's last four opponents is 9-26 (.346). Yuck. Their last challenge came against Johnny Football and Texas A&M the second week of September.

A.J. McCarron has completed over 69 percent of his passes with 16 touchdowns and only three interceptions. T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake have combined for over 1,200 yards and 18 touchdowns. The two are averaging seven yards per carry. McCarron spreads the wealth in the passing game as four receivers each have 20 or more receptions on the season.

True to tradition, Alabama's scoring defense is tops in the nation at less than 10 points allowed per game. They are fifth in total defense, allowing less than 285 yards per game.

LSU limps into the matchup with a 3-2 record in their last five games. Losses at Georgia and Mississippi dropped the Tigers to 13th in the country. However, their back-loaded schedule could help boost them back into the BCS conversation. After their trip to Tuscaloosa, LSU hosts Texas A&M next week.

Zach Mettenberger has completed 65 percent of his passes for nearly 2,500 yards with 19 touchdowns and seven interceptions.

Sophomore running back Jeremy Hill has rushed for nearly 200 more yards (922) on 14 fewer attempts year-over-year with 12 touchdowns. Hill is averaging 7.2 yards per rush.

Receivers Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry are closing in on 2,000 yards combined with 18 touchdowns scored.

The Bayou Bengals defense has regressed a tad year-over-year. They finished the 2012 season with an eighth-ranked total and 12th-ranked scoring defense. Fast forward to November 4, 2013 and LSU is 31st in scoring (21.9 PAPG) and 21st in total defense (351.7 YAPG).

We simulated the Tigers and Tide 101 times and it's Alabama winning 68.8 percent of the time by an average score of 26-19.

Please note: The Virginia-North Carolina game was resimulated on 11/6 to account for injuries and roster updates.

College Football Week 11
MatchupWin%Avg Score 
North Carolina State Wolfpack33.221Boxscore
@ Duke Blue Devils66.827 
Syracuse Orange38.619Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins61.423 
Virginia Cavaliers45.520Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels54.521 
Virginia Tech Hokies48.521Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes51.522 
Notre Dame Fighting Irish69.324Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers30.717 
Florida State Seminoles87.130Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons12.915 
BYU Cougars37.620Boxscore
@ Wisconsin Badgers62.424 
Illinois Fighting Illini40.624Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers59.426 
Nebraska Cornhuskers41.620Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines58.423 
Penn State Nittany Lions45.521Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers54.522 
Iowa Hawkeyes80.727Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers19.316 
Central Michigan Chippewas25.725Boxscore
@ Ball State Cardinals74.332 
Western Michigan Broncos48.524Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles51.525 
Ohio Bobcats49.520Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls50.521 
Bowling Green Falcons85.130Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks14.914 
Colorado Buffaloes18.319Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies81.730 
UCLA Bruins53.527Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats46.526 
Arizona State Sun Devils56.423Boxscore
@ Utah Utes43.622 
Oregon Ducks59.925Boxscore
@ Stanford Cardinal40.122 
USC Trojans70.326Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears29.720 
Appalachian State Mountaineers 5.08Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs95.047 
Arkansas Razorbacks27.718Boxscore
@ Ole Miss Rebels72.326 
Mississippi State Bulldogs31.725Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies68.331 
LSU Tigers31.219Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide68.826 
Vanderbilt Commodores47.017Boxscore
@ Florida Gators53.018 
Auburn Tigers64.424Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers35.619 
Missouri Tigers72.328Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats27.718 
Old Dominion Monarchs 5.010Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals95.036 
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors30.719Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen69.325 
Boston College Eagles71.330Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies28.720 
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers70.826Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights29.219 
Kansas Jayhawks21.820Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys78.229 
Oklahoma Sooners44.124Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears55.925 
Kansas State Wildcats45.525Boxscore
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders54.528 
TCU Horned Frogs55.922Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones44.120 
Texas Longhorns72.328Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers27.721 
UTEP Miners30.722Boxscore
@ North Texas Mean Green69.328 
FIU Golden Panthers30.719Boxscore
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders69.326 
UAB Blazers36.626Boxscore
@ Marshall Thundering Herd63.431 
Tulsa Golden Hurricane39.621Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates60.423 
Southern Miss Golden Eagles42.623Boxscore
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs57.424 
Tulane Green Wave47.526Boxscore
@ Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners52.527 
Air Force Falcons42.623Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos57.425 
San Diego State Aztecs46.523Boxscore
@ San Jose State Spartans53.524 
Nevada Wolf Pack48.525Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams51.526 
Utah State Aggies51.527Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels48.526 
Fresno State Bulldogs77.234Boxscore
@ Wyoming Cowboys22.825 
Arkansas State Red Wolves41.622Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks58.425 
Troy Trojans43.627Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns56.429 
UTM Skyhawks 5.06Boxscore
@ Memphis Tigers95.040 
SMU Mustangs39.622Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bearcats60.425 
Houston Cougars48.526Boxscore
@ UCF Knights51.528 
Louisville Cardinals86.129Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies13.915 
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Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.

Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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