Week 10 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game
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Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.
Check out our 2013 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week.
The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.
Game of the Week: Miami (FL) at Florida State
We considered Michigan at Michigan State as our Week 10 featured matchup. However, something about the Wolverines’ 4OT-loss to a Penn State team that just got blown out by Ohio State 63-14 that swayed our decision.
Miami (FL) vs. Florida State may boast the seventh-ranked team traveling upstate to try and upset the third-best team in the country, but for those who have paid attention to the Hurricanes’ efforts the last two weeks; numbers (rankings) can be deceiving.
Speaking of numbers, Vegas set the point spread on this game at Florida State (-21) – the Jacksonville Jaguars feel bad for the Hurricanes.
Since we last recapped Jameis Winston’s Heisman resume – before the Clemson win – the redshirt freshman quarterback has averaged 368 passing yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions in two games. He’s completing nearly 70 percent of his passes with 23 touchdowns and only four interceptions.
Winston is 19 years old. The WhatIfSports.com content department held jobs at Staples, a steel mill and UPS as college sophomores. Sadly, our Heisman poses included reams of paper, scrap metal and cardboard boxes.
The balanced Seminoles’ offense is ranked 11th in the nation in passing and 25th in rushing behind Devonta Freeman and Karlos Williams. The duo has combined for 13 rushing touchdowns.
Florida State’s defense remains in the top five in points allowed at 13 points per pop.
The Hurricanes needed back-to-back, 14-point fourth quarters in order to remain unbeaten in 2013. Now, injuries bit hard in the team’s game at North Carolina two Thursdays ago, but they did get running back Duke Johnson back in time for the Wake Forest game. It took 30 carries for 168 yards with two fourth-quarter touchdowns from DJ to beat the Deacons.
The 39.6 points per game the team averages behind Johnson and Dallas Crawford seems impressive until you realize the offense has only managed 25.5 points per game the last two weeks. With Florida State’s defense holding Clemson to 14 points two games ago, the Hurricanes could be in trouble.
They’ll have to hope their 17th-ranked total and 17th-ranked pass defense can somehow contain Winston and company.
We simulated the Seminoles and Hurricanes 101 times and it’s the Seminoles winning 71.3 percent of the time by an average score of 31-22.
College Football Week 10
|Miami (FL) Hurricanes||28.7||22||Boxscore|
|@ Florida State Seminoles||71.3||31|
|@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets||50.5||21|
|Wake Forest Demon Deacons||61.4||21||Boxscore|
|@ Syracuse Orange||38.6||18|
|Virginia Tech Hokies||65.3||22||Boxscore|
|@ Boston College Eagles||34.7||18|
|North Carolina Tar Heels||69.3||27||Boxscore|
|@ North Carolina State Wolfpack||30.7||22|
|@ Virginia Cavaliers||24.8||17|
|@ Nebraska Cornhuskers||67.3||24|
|Illinois Fighting Illini||33.7||21||Boxscore|
|@ Penn State Nittany Lions||66.3||27|
|Minnesota Golden Gophers||42.6||21||Boxscore|
|@ Indiana Hoosiers||57.4||24|
|@ Michigan State Spartans||50.5||22|
|@ Iowa Hawkeyes||48.0||21|
|Ohio State Buckeyes||88.1||30||Boxscore|
|@ Purdue Boilermakers||11.9||16|
|Eastern Michigan Eagles||23.8||22||Boxscore|
|@ Toledo Rockets||76.2||32|
|Kent State Golden Flashes||51.5||24||Boxscore|
|@ Akron Zips||48.5||23|
|Northern Illinois Huskies||95.0||31||Boxscore|
|@ Massachusetts Minutemen||5.0||12|
|@ UCLA Bruins||76.2||30|
|@ Oregon State Beavers||53.5||26|
|Arizona State Sun Devils||58.9||23||Boxscore|
|@ Washington State Cougars||41.1||22|
|@ California Golden Bears||34.7||23|
|Alabama State Hornets||5.0||8||Boxscore|
|@ Kentucky Wildcats||95.0||43|
|@ Texas A&M Aggies||93.1||36|
|@ Missouri Tigers||68.8||27|
|Mississippi State Bulldogs||32.7||21||Boxscore|
|@ South Carolina Gamecocks||67.3||27|
|vs. Georgia Bulldogs||55.4||21|
|@ Arkansas Razorbacks||25.2||17|
|@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish||75.7||27|
|Texas State Bobcats||62.4||25||Boxscore|
|@ Idaho Vandals||37.6||20|
|@ Texas Longhorns||75.7||28|
|Iowa State Cyclones||30.7||20||Boxscore|
|@ Kansas State Wildcats||69.3||26|
|West Virginia Mountaineers||42.6||21||Boxscore|
|@ TCU Horned Frogs||57.4||23|
|Oklahoma State Cowboys||50.5||28||Boxscore|
|@ Texas Tech Red Raiders||49.5||27|
|Southern Miss Golden Eagles||25.2||20||Boxscore|
|@ Marshall Thundering Herd||74.8||29|
|@ North Texas Mean Green||52.5||23|
|Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners||49.5||24||Boxscore|
|@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane||50.5||25|
|Tulane Green Wave||55.4||26||Boxscore|
|@ Florida Atlantic Owls||44.6||22|
|Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders||60.4||27||Boxscore|
|@ UAB Blazers||39.6||24|
|East Carolina Pirates||78.2||27||Boxscore|
|@ FIU Golden Panthers||21.8||18|
|Nevada Wolf Pack||14.9||21||Boxscore|
|@ Fresno State Bulldogs||85.1||33|
|Hawaii Rainbow Warriors||31.7||19||Boxscore|
|@ Utah State Aggies||68.3||27|
|New Mexico Lobos||33.7||20||Boxscore|
|@ San Diego State Aztecs||66.3||26|
|Army Black Knights||37.6||19||Boxscore|
|@ Air Force Falcons||62.4||25|
|San Jose State Spartans||63.4||27||Boxscore|
|@ UNLV Rebels||36.6||23|
|Boise State Broncos||67.3||30||Boxscore|
|@ Colorado State Rams||32.7||23|
|New Mexico State Aggies||27.7||22||Boxscore|
|@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns||72.3||29|
|Arkansas State Red Wolves||38.1||21||Boxscore|
|@ South Alabama Jaguars||61.9||25|
|@ Troy Trojans||53.0||29|
|Western Kentucky Hilltoppers||84.2||30||Boxscore|
|@ Georgia State Panthers||15.8||16|
|@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights||73.8||26|
|South Florida Bulls||36.1||23||Boxscore|
|@ Houston Cougars||63.9||28|
|@ Memphis Tigers||19.8||18|
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