College Football Week 5 Picks and Predictions From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 5 Picks and Predictions

Week 5 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

By Ryan Fowler and Jake Westrich - WhatIfSports.com
September 24, 2012

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2012 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Baylor at West Virginia

The Warhawks of Louisiana-Monroe have been the thorn in the side of some of the top collegiate football programs over the last few weeks. First, they took then eighth-ranked Arkansas to overtime and won 34-31. Then, they traveled to Auburn and forced overtime with the Tigers, but fell by three. Finally, last week, the Warhawks took Baylor down to the wire before losing 47-42. The Bears may have lost Robert Griffin III to the NFL, but their high-powered offense continued to thrive during the non-conference portion of their 2012 schedule.

That changes this Saturday at high noon.

Baylor travels to Morgantown to meet the new kid in the Big 12 Conference, West Virginia. The Bears enter the game fifth in the nation in scoring (51.3 points per game) and passing offense (361.7). He may not be as mobile as RG3, but Nick Florence is making a name for himself with over 1,000 passing yards and 11 touchdowns already this season. He's chipped in 159 yards on the ground, too.

The Bears' problem, once again, is on the other side of the football where they rank 116th in total defense and 90th in scoring defense. Ouch.

They'll need to try and rectify that against Geno Smith and the Mountaineers, who are 10th in scoring offense at better than 47 points per game. Smith is one of the early favorites to take home the Heisman Trophy. The quarterback has thrown for 1,072 yards and 12 touchdowns without throwing a pick. Smith is completing better than 81 percent of his passes, which is insane and leads the nation.

We simulated the Bears and the Mountaineers 101 times and it's West Virginia coming away with the win over 65 percent of the time by an average score of 30-25. Remember, that's just an average score chances are these two teams run the score into the mid-to-high 40s.

College Football Week 5
MatchupWin%Avg Score 
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 5.017Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets95.034 
Idaho Vandals12.916Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels87.132 
North Carolina State Wolfpack44.123Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes55.925 
Duke Blue Devils44.125Boxscore
@ Wake Forest Demon Deacons55.926 
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs54.528Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers45.527 
Clemson Tigers83.231Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles16.819 
Buffalo Bulls27.215Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies72.823 
Virginia Tech Hokies62.924Boxscore
vs. Cincinnati Bearcats37.118 
Florida State Seminoles79.229Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls20.819 
Indiana Hoosiers24.820Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats75.227 
Marshall Thundering Herd28.722Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers71.330 
Minnesota Golden Gophers32.720Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes67.324 
Wisconsin Badgers39.123Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers60.926 
Penn State Nittany Lions49.019Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini51.020 
Ohio State Buckeyes51.522Boxscore
@ Michigan State Spartans48.521 
Rhode Island Rams 5.06Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons95.040 
Central Michigan Chippewas38.622Boxscore
@ Northern Illinois Huskies61.425 
Toledo Rockets44.127Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos55.929 
Ball State Cardinals61.922Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes38.119 
Miami (OH) RedHawks72.326Boxscore
@ Akron Zips27.719 
Ohio Bobcats95.033Boxscore
@ Massachusetts Minutemen 5.010 
Arizona State Sun Devils47.525Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears52.526 
Oregon State Beavers51.529Boxscore
@ Arizona Wildcats48.528 
UCLA Bruins65.325Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes34.720 
Stanford Cardinal64.928Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies35.124 
Oregon Ducks74.332Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars25.721 
Towson Tigers 5.06Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers95.052 
Mississippi Rebels 6.913Boxscore
@ Alabama Crimson Tide93.130 
Arkansas Razorbacks27.721Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies72.328 
Tennessee Volunteers29.221Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs70.827 
South Carolina Gamecocks88.125Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats11.911 
UNLV Rebels15.819Boxscore
@ Utah State Aggies84.230 
Texas-San Antonio Roadrunners32.223Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies67.829 
Nevada Wolf Pack91.132Boxscore
@ Texas State Bobcats 8.915 
Stony Brook Seawolves 5.09Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights95.041 
Hawaii Warriors30.719Boxscore
@ Brigham Young Cougars69.325 
San Jose State Spartans54.526Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen45.525 
Baylor Bears34.725Boxscore
@ West Virginia Mountaineers65.330 
Texas Tech Red Raiders41.126Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones58.928 
Texas Longhorns57.425Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys42.623 
UTEP Miners46.524Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates53.525 
Missouri Tigers60.426Boxscore
@ UCF Knights39.622 
Houston Cougars60.430Boxscore
vs. Rice Owls39.626 
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks69.328Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave30.721 
TCU Horned Frogs75.230Boxscore
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs24.821 
Tulsa Golden Hurricane79.231Boxscore
@ UAB Blazers20.820 
Louisville Cardinals83.228Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles16.816 
Colorado State Rams25.718Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons74.325 
San Diego State Aztecs36.122Boxscore
@ Fresno State Bulldogs63.928 
Boise State Broncos95.035Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos 5.015 
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers38.624Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves61.427 
FIU Golden Panthers47.526Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns52.527 
North Texas Mean Green67.325Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls32.719 
Troy Trojans75.228Boxscore
@ South Alabama Jaguars24.819 
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Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.

Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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