Buckeyes beat Badgers in title game
College Basketball Features
2011 Big 12 Tournament Predictions2011 Big East Tournament Predictions
March Madness 2011: Senior Citizens
Big Ten Bracket of Classics
College Basketball Teams of the Decade
College Basketball SimMatchup
Create Your Own NCAA Dream Team
For the first time, Whatifsports.com is providing simulation predictions for the Big East, Big 12 and Big Ten conference basketball tournaments. We hope to expand and include other conference tournament predictions next season. Let us know what you think of our latest prediction venture and if you would like to see more conferences added in 2012. Contact information can be found at the bottom of each article. Thank you.
Jon Diebler walked onto Ohio State's campus four years ago as the all-time leading scorer for Ohio high schools (3,208 points). He then spent most of the past four seasons trying to silence critics who said his high school accolades and records would never translate to the college game.
Then, as if he suddenly realized the curtain was about to close on his collegiate career, Diebler erupted in the final two games of the regular season. The sharpshooter connected on 17 of 20 three-pointers (85 percent) in wins over Penn State and Wisconsin. His 10 3-pointers against the Nittany Lions were an Ohio State record for most 3-balls in a game. Diebler's strong kick to the regular-season finish line earned him his first Big Ten player of the week honor.
The Buckeyes mimicked their senior guard's premier play the final two games. Thad Matta's young bunch shot 61.1 percent from the floor and 69.2 percent from behind the arc against Penn State and Wisconsin.
Even with the Buckeyes' positive momentum heading into the postseason, some national pundits are concerned with the lack of depth and experience on Ohio State's bench. Freshman bench players Aaron Craft (29.1 minutes per game) and Deshaun Thomas (14.5 mpg.) stir up some doubts for those who want to advance the Buckeyes to Houston.
Then again, if you shoot 61.1 percent as a team, the lack of bench and experience are quickly dismissed.
Big Ten Tournament First Round | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Minnesota Golden Gophers | 40.6 | 68 |
| Northwestern Wildcats | 59.4 | 69 |
Big Ten Tournament First Round | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Iowa Hawkeyes | 34.7 | 65 |
| Michigan State Spartans | 65.3 | 69 |
Big Ten Tournament First Round | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Indiana Hoosiers | 44.6 | 67 |
| Penn State Nittany Lions | 55.4 | 68 |
Michigan State is in danger of missing the NCAA tournament for the first time since 1997. Thousands of people who rely on Tom Izzo and the Spartans advancing to the Sweet 16 in their bracket have started to break out in a cold sweat.
The Spartans need a few Big Ten tournament wins to weasel their way into the dance. Their 17-13 record (9-9 Big Ten) looks worse than it is considering they possessed the ninth-toughest schedule this season. However, getting swept by Michigan for the first time in 14 seasons hurt their postseason resume.
Michigan State took care of business against Iowa in our first-round simulation by knocking out the Hawkeyes 65.3 percent of the time by an average score of 69-65.
Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Northwestern Wildcats | 24.8 | 70 |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | 75.2 | 76 |
Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 52.5 | 68 |
| Michigan Wolverines | 47.5 | 66 |
Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Michigan State Spartans | 41.6 | 67 |
| Purdue Boilermakers | 58.4 | 69 |
Big Ten Tournament Quarterfinals | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Penn State Nittany Lions | 23.8 | 62 |
| Wisconsin Badgers | 76.2 | 69 |
FOXSports.com bracketologist Jordan Schwartz thinks Illinois is playing a virtual NCAA play-in game against Michigan in the Big Ten tournament quarterfinals. He also says the loser of the game won't necessarily be eliminated from NCAA tournament consideration.
Now, at face value, the thought of Illinois (19-12) or Michigan (17-13) earning its way into the NCAA tournament screams soft bubble. That is until you dig deeper and peel away the statistical layers of each team's entire body of work.
The Fighting Illini rank 40th in RPI and possess the 17th-toughest schedule. The Wolverines are 56th in RPI with the 18th-toughest schedule.
Illinois won the regular-season meeting by two, and our simulation engine predicts the same result, but only 52.5 percent of the simulations.
Big Ten Tournament Semifinals | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Illinois Fighting Illini | 27.7 | 69 |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | 72.3 | 76 |
Big Ten Tournament Semifinals | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Wisconsin Badgers | 50.5 | 70 |
| Purdue Boilermakers | 49.5 | 69 |
Robbie Hummel's second ACL tear at the beginning season could have resulted in a death sentence to Purdue's season. Instead, seniors JaJuan Johnson and E'Twaun Moore placed the rest of the Boilermakers on their shoulders. The duo combined to average more than 38 points per game. Matt Painter's team ranked sixth in the Associated Press poll and had won seven straight before Iowa extinguished the flame in their season finale, 67-65.
The Boilermakers split their season series against Wisconsin with the home team winning on both occasions.
The Badgers won the closest tournament simulation by winning 50.5 percent of the time by an average score of 70-69.
Big Ten Tournament Finals | ||
|---|---|---|
| Matchup | Win% | Avg Score |
| Wisconsin Badgers | 32.7 | 68 |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | 67.3 | 72 |
When the Buckeyes fell to the Badgers inside the Kohl Center, Matta played seven players total. Five players logged 34 or more minutes that game. The other two contributors, Dallas Lauderdale and Thomas, played 12 minutes combined.
The Badgers' 15-0 second-half run was sparked by Jordan Taylor, who scored 21 of his 27 points in the second half. But the junior was held to eight points on 2-of-9 shooting in the blowout loss at Ohio State on Sunday.
The Buckeyes won more than two-thirds of the 101 simulations over the Badgers by an average score of 72-68.
Check out our 2011 Big East Tournament Predictions
Check out our 2011 Big 12 Tournament Predictions
Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for Whatifsports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.



Facebook
Become a fan of WhatIfSports on Facebook
Twitter
Follow WhatIfSports on Twitter