College Football Week 9 Picks and Predictions from WhatIfSports.com From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 9 Picks and Predictions

Week 9 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

By Ryan Fowler and Jake Westrich - WhatIfSports.com
October 24, 2011

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Oklahoma at Kansas State

There's 7-0 and then there's 7-0. Kansas State is 7-0 and please don't be that program apologist who defends the Wildcats flawless start with the tired "we can only play the teams on our schedule" reset. The truth is 73-year-old Bill Snyder has done a hell of a job leading his team into Week 9 undefeated. However, only one of those wins came against a rank team; a one-point victory over Baylor at home.

With quarterback Colin Klein leading their rush-first offense, the Cats still only rank 19th in rushing yards (213.9). If Oklahoma (116.6 rush yards allowed per game) neutralizes the ground game, K-State really doesn't have the passing attack (ranked 110th in passing) to keep pace with the up-tempo Sooners. The Wildcats' 23rd-ranked scoring defense (19.7 points per game) will have its hands full slowing down Landry Jones and company, especially after a heart-breaking loss to Texas Tech at home.

Unless something whacky happens at the top of the BCS standings, Bob Stoops' 6-1 Sooners are now playing solely for the Big 12 title and a sexy bowl bid. Jones continues to impress with nearly 2,600 yards passing and 21 touchdowns (five TDs in the loss to Tech in Week 8). The Sooners are averaging 44.3 points per game (seventh in FBS) and should have no problem reaching that threshold considering the Wildcats have allowed lesser opponents to score 21 or more points in four out of their seven games this season.

Using our college football simulation engine, we "played" Oklahoma at Kansas State 101 times and it's the Sooners winning 87.1 percent of the time by an average score of 38-24.

Michigan State at Nebraska

Sparty shocked and awed our college football simulation engine with their last-second, Hail Mary full of grace heave into the end zone that ricocheted off a face mask and into the hands of Keith Nichol. A few minutes later, an instant replay overturned the referees' call on the field and a late fourth quarter rally by Wisconsin was erased. It's hard to simulate that outcome, even with a highly successful (77.1 percent accuracy straight up) simulation engine.

For Michigan State's next trick and bid to secure the top spot in the Big Ten's Legends Division, the Spartans must beat Nebraska in Lincoln. Kirk Cousins played a nearly flawless game against the Badgers; finishing 22 of 31 for 290 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions. State's offensive efficiency can exploit a once-dominant Nebraska defense, now ranked 54th in scoring defense at 25.3 points per game, on Saturday.

The Cornhuskers come off a beat down of lowly Minnesota 41-14. Rex Burkehead, a hero in the team's rally against Ohio State three weeks ago, has emerged as the team's leading rusher ahead of Taylor Martinez. On 130 carries, Burkehead has racked up 752 yards and 10 touchdowns.

We simulated the Spartans and Cornhuskers 101 times and it's Michigan State walking out of Lincoln with a win 64.4 percent of the time by an average score of 27-23.

College Football Week 9
MatchupWin%Avg Score 
Virginia Cavaliers17.819Boxscore
@ Miami (FL) Hurricanes82.231 
North Carolina State Wolfpack20.823Boxscore
@ Florida State Seminoles79.233 
Wake Forest Demon Deacons35.625Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels64.429 
Boston College Eagles44.621Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins55.423 
Clemson Tigers69.327Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets30.720 
Virginia Tech Hokies82.234Boxscore
@ Duke Blue Devils17.821 
Connecticut Huskies27.719Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers72.326 
Syracuse Orange61.426Boxscore
@ Louisville Cardinals38.622 
West Virginia Mountaineers88.131Boxscore
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights11.920 
Purdue Boilermakers37.626Boxscore
@ Michigan Wolverines62.432 
Illinois Fighting Illini46.522Boxscore
@ Penn State Nittany Lions53.524 
Michigan State Spartans64.427Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers35.623 
Wisconsin Badgers75.729Boxscore
@ Ohio State Buckeyes24.320 
Northwestern Wildcats77.233Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers22.823 
Iowa Hawkeyes92.131Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers 7.913 
Ball State Cardinals39.624Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos60.427 
Buffalo Bulls40.620Boxscore
@ Miami (OH) RedHawks59.423 
Bowling Green Falcons47.521Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes52.522 
Central Michigan Chippewas86.131Boxscore
@ Akron Zips13.917 
Washington State Cougars 5.020Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks95.043 
Colorado Buffaloes15.820Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils84.232 
Oregon State Beavers35.621Boxscore
@ Utah Utes64.425 
Arizona Wildcats48.526Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies51.527 
California Golden Bears60.426Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins39.621 
Stanford Cardinal62.935Boxscore
@ USC Trojans37.128 
Mississippi Rebels28.722Boxscore
@ Auburn Tigers71.330 
Florida Gators39.121Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs60.926 
South Carolina Gamecocks58.923Boxscore
@ Tennessee Volunteers41.120 
Mississippi State Bulldogs80.229Boxscore
@ Kentucky Wildcats19.818 
Arkansas Razorbacks93.134Boxscore
@ Vanderbilt Commodores 6.913 
San Jose State Spartans27.723Boxscore
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs72.331 
Hawaii Warriors83.234Boxscore
@ Idaho Vandals16.821 
Nevada Wolf Pack89.134Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies10.917 
Fordham Rams 5.09Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights95.043 
Navy Midshipmen21.822Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish78.232 
Kansas Jayhawks 5.017Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns95.034 
Iowa State Cyclones24.823Boxscore
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders75.232 
Baylor Bears27.731Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys72.340 
Missouri Tigers33.723Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies66.329 
Oklahoma Sooners87.138Boxscore
@ Kansas State Wildcats12.924 
Memphis Tigers 5.013Boxscore
@ UCF Knights95.039 
Rice Owls17.827Boxscore
@ Houston Cougars82.241 
Tulane Green Wave31.727Boxscore
@ East Carolina Pirates68.334 
UAB Blazers44.624Boxscore
@ Marshall Thundering Herd55.427 
Southern Methodist Mustangs48.532Boxscore
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane51.534 
Southern Miss Golden Eagles82.235Boxscore
@ UTEP Miners17.824 
Wyoming Cowboys10.915Boxscore
@ San Diego State Aztecs89.130 
Brigham Young Cougars21.824Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs78.234 
Colorado State Rams76.229Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels23.820 
Air Force Falcons95.036Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos 5.011 
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers34.222Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks65.829 
Troy Trojans36.624Boxscore
@ FIU Golden Panthers63.429 
North Texas Mean Green36.127Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves63.931 
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns52.525Boxscore
@ Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders47.524 
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Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.

Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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