College Football Week 14 Picks and Predictions from WhatIfSports.com From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 14 Picks and Predictions

Week 14 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

By Ryan Fowler and Jake Westrich - WhatIfSports.com
November 28, 2011

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

<a href='http://msn.foxsports.com/video/college-football?vid=5ab2e45f-70eb-45e4-a81b-bd96eeebf75e&videoId=5ab2e45f-70eb-45e4-a81b-bd96eeebf75e&src=v5:embed::' target='_new' title='WhatIfSports: Week 14 CFB picks'>Video: WhatIfSports: Week 14 CFB picks</a>

Big Ten Championship - Wisconsin vs Michigan State

The Badgers finished the regular season with only eight turnovers in 12 games. Quarterback Russell Wilson threw three of the team's four interceptions. Two of his picks were thrown in the Michigan State game. Even with a pair of extra possessions (of which zero points were scored), it took a Kirk Cousins' Hail Mary, tipped pass for the Spartans to win the first meeting in East Lansing.

The final score on that late October day was 37-31; far from the defensive affair the stats would suggest. As it stands then and now, the Badgers and Spartans possess two of the top scoring defenses in the country. Wisconsin finished the regular season fourth in the country at 15.2 points allowed per game and MSU finished sixth at 15.4 points allowed.

The key for the Spartans in the inaugural Big Ten Championship game in Indianapolis will be to contain Montee Ball. The Badgers running back has scored 34 touchdowns (29 rushing, five receiving) and rushed for over 1600 yards. He's scored multiple touchdowns in EVERY game this season.

The Badgers must put some pressure on Kirk Cousins who finished 22 of 31 for 290 yards with three touchdowns in their first meeting. If Wisconsin can force a few turnovers and Wilson can lead the offense a few early scores, the Badgers should roll. Remember, Wisconsin blew a 14-0 lead the first time around, something coach Brett Bielema can't let happen again if he wants to smell the roses.

Using our college football simulation engine, we simulated the Big Ten Championship 101 times and it's the Badgers winning 67.3-percent of the time by an average score of 33-27.

Pac-12 Championship - Oregon vs UCLA

UCLA should send USC a nice fruit basket this holiday season.

Thanks to NCAA sanctions, the 10-2 Trojans are ineligible for postseason play this year, including the conference title game. This has allowed the 6-6 Bruins -fresh off a 50-0 beat down at the hands of their rival - to back their way into the inaugural Pac-12 Championship against the Ducks.

Statistically speaking, this matchup is so one-sided it's hard to make a case for the Bruins. Their offense finished the regular season 88th (out of 120) in scoring and 87th in scoring defense. Their rush defense allows 5.0 yards per carry, while Oregon averages 6.5 yards per carry -tops in the country.

UCLA's best shot at competing in this game is to engineer loooooong drive to milk the clock and hand the Ducks as few possessions as possible. If they fail to control the clock, Oregon will run their way into the BCS.

Fun fact: a loss by the Bruins would drop them to 6-7 and ineligible for a bowl bid because of their losing record. (Update: the NCAA ruled Wednesday that even at 6-7, the Bruins would be eligible for a bowl.)

We simulated the Bruins and Ducks 101 times and it's Oregon winning 80.2 percent of the time by an average score of 36-22.

College Football Week 14
MatchupWin%Avg Score 
Virginia Tech Hokies57.427Boxscore
Clemson Tigers42.625 
Syracuse Orange28.719Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers71.325 
Connecticut Huskies49.524Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bearcats50.525 
West Virginia Mountaineers75.232Boxscore
@ South Florida Bulls24.823 
Wisconsin Badgers67.333Boxscore
Michigan State Spartans32.727 
Ohio Bobcats37.627Boxscore
Northern Illinois Huskies62.432 
UCLA Bruins19.822Boxscore
@ Oregon Ducks80.236 
Georgia Bulldogs32.222Boxscore
LSU Tigers67.829 
Idaho Vandals16.820Boxscore
@ Nevada Wolf Pack83.230 
Utah State Aggies70.330Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies29.723 
Brigham Young Cougars76.233Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors23.821 
Iowa State Cyclones30.724Boxscore
@ Kansas State Wildcats69.332 
Texas Longhorns41.628Boxscore
@ Baylor Bears58.429 
Oklahoma Sooners55.934Boxscore
@ Oklahoma State Cowboys44.130 
Southern Miss Golden Eagles35.637Boxscore
@ Houston Cougars64.442 
UNLV Rebels 5.011Boxscore
@ TCU Horned Frogs95.046 
New Mexico Lobos 5.09Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos95.050 
Fresno State Bulldogs29.724Boxscore
@ San Diego State Aztecs70.330 
Wyoming Cowboys63.426Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams36.622 
Troy Trojans44.625Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves55.428 
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders54.526Boxscore
@ North Texas Mean Green45.525 
Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks80.229Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls19.819 
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Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.

Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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