College Football Week 11 Picks and Predictions from WhatIfSports.com From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 11 Picks and Predictions

Week 11 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

By Ryan Fowler and Jake Westrich - WhatIfSports.com
November 7, 2011

Each Monday, WhatIfSports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including each team's chances of winning (Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2011 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Upsets of the Week available on Wednesdays.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those players are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

<a href='http://msn.foxsports.com/video/college-football?videoId=12gpv1ua&from=null&src=v5:embed::uuids#' target='_new' title='What if Sports: Week 11 CFB picks'>Video: What if Sports: Week 11 CFB picks</a>

Game of the Week: Oregon at Stanford

If you loved the No. 1 vs No. 2 showdown in Tuscaloosa last Saturday night, you'll absolutely hate the hyper-offensive matchup between Stanford and Oregon in Week 11. It took overtime for Alabama and LSU to combine for 15 points. Depending on two-point conversion decisions, the Cardinal and Ducks could knock that out in the first two offensive series.

Andrew Luck and company are currently third in the nation in scoring at 48.2 points per game. Darron Thomas, LaMichael James (now back from injury) and Kenjon Barner pace an offense fifth in scoring at 46.0 points per game. A season ago, the Ducks rallied to win 52-31 thanks, in part, to a 28-0 run to end the game.

For the moment, Stanford holds the better scoring defense, limiting the opposition to 16.6 points per game compared to the Ducks who have allowed 20.8 points per game.

Luck's notoriety has Stanford branded as a passing offense, but a closer look at their stats proves otherwise. They average 281 passing yards per game and 224 rushing yards. On the contrary, the Ducks are pretty one-dimensional and use their speed to move the pigskin down the field on the ground. They rank 78th in the nation in passing, but average nearly 300 yards on the ground per game, fifth in the country.

The Cardinal rank third in the country in rush defense and have allowed only 78.9 yards per game on the ground.

We simulated the Cardinal and Ducks 101 times and the simulation engine picks Stanford to win 63.4 percent of the time by an average score of 33-31.

TCU at Boise State

First place in the Mountain West Conference is on the line this Saturday in Boise. As they have in seasons' past, the Broncos enter the game a perfect 8-0 with BCS National Championship aspirations on their minds. Despite Casey Pachell's best efforts, the Horned Frogs (7-2/4-0 MWC) are rebuilding following the departure of Andy Dalton to the NFL where he's led the Cincinnati Bengals to a 6-2 start to the season.

TCU currently ranks 70th in the nation in passing offense at 224 yards per game, but are solid in the ground game with a three-headed monster of Waymon James, Matthew Tucker and Ed Wesley. The trio has racked up better than 500 rushing yards apiece and has combined for 16 touchdowns.

Kellen Moore has continued a quiet bid to win the Heisman Trophy. As is always the case, a soft schedule has watered down his 2,229 passing yards and 29 touchdowns with only five interceptions. The Broncos remain one of the highest scoring offenses in the country at 43.9 points per game, currently seventh overall.

We simulated the Broncos and Horned Frogs 101 times and the simulation engine likes Boise State to win at home 78.2 percent of the time by an average score of 38-29.

College Football Week 11
MatchupWin%Avg Score 
Wake Forest Demon Deacons27.722Boxscore
@ Clemson Tigers72.332 
Duke Blue Devils32.224Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers67.830 
Miami (FL) Hurricanes35.625Boxscore
@ Florida State Seminoles64.429 
North Carolina State Wolfpack53.024Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles47.023 
Virginia Tech Hokies60.424Boxscore
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets39.621 
Pittsburgh Panthers47.523Boxscore
@ Louisville Cardinals52.524 
South Florida Bulls48.523Boxscore
@ Syracuse Orange51.524 
West Virginia Mountaineers62.432Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bearcats37.628 
Rice Owls 9.920Boxscore
@ Northwestern Wildcats90.134 
Michigan Wolverines48.527Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini51.528 
Nebraska Cornhuskers49.522Boxscore
@ Penn State Nittany Lions50.523 
Michigan State Spartans68.328Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes31.722 
Ohio State Buckeyes76.228Boxscore
@ Purdue Boilermakers23.816 
Wisconsin Badgers95.042Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers 5.012 
Western Michigan Broncos22.323Boxscore
@ Toledo Rockets77.733 
Miami (OH) RedHawks30.719Boxscore
@ Temple Owls69.327 
Buffalo Bulls61.923Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles38.119 
Ohio Bobcats67.328Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas32.722 
Northern Illinois Huskies81.234Boxscore
@ Bowling Green Falcons18.823 
Kent State Golden Flashes80.724Boxscore
@ Akron Zips19.314 
Washington Huskies32.727Boxscore
@ USC Trojans67.333 
Oregon Ducks36.631Boxscore
@ Stanford Cardinal63.433 
Oregon State Beavers46.523Boxscore
@ California Golden Bears53.524 
UCLA Bruins58.428Boxscore
@ Utah Utes41.625 
Arizona Wildcats71.329Boxscore
@ Colorado Buffaloes28.723 
Arizona State Sun Devils82.734Boxscore
@ Washington State Cougars17.322 
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 5.011Boxscore
@ LSU Tigers95.043 
Auburn Tigers24.824Boxscore
@ Georgia Bulldogs75.232 
Tennessee Volunteers27.222Boxscore
@ Arkansas Razorbacks72.830 
Florida Gators40.619Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks59.422 
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs47.528Boxscore
@ Mississippi Rebels52.530 
Kentucky Wildcats58.421Boxscore
@ Vanderbilt Commodores41.620 
Alabama Crimson Tide82.731Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs17.318 
San Jose State Spartans49.526Boxscore
@ Utah State Aggies50.528 
Hawaii Warriors67.335Boxscore
@ Nevada Wolf Pack32.730 
Fresno State Bulldogs87.133Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies12.918 
Idaho Vandals16.817Boxscore
@ Brigham Young Cougars83.232 
Maryland Terrapins17.818Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish82.230 
Rutgers Scarlet Knights76.227Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights23.818 
Texas A&M Aggies50.031Boxscore
@ Kansas State Wildcats50.030 
Texas Longhorns51.025Boxscore
@ Missouri Tigers49.024 
Oklahoma State Cowboys81.240Boxscore
@ Texas Tech Red Raiders18.829 
Baylor Bears83.240Boxscore
@ Kansas Jayhawks16.826 
Marshall Thundering Herd27.726Boxscore
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane72.334 
UCF Knights36.630Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles63.434 
Navy Midshipmen43.126Boxscore
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs56.927 
East Carolina Pirates81.234Boxscore
@ UTEP Miners18.823 
Houston Cougars81.240Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave18.829 
UAB Blazers82.229Boxscore
@ Memphis Tigers17.819 
TCU Horned Frogs21.829Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos78.238 
Wyoming Cowboys38.620Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons61.424 
UNLV Rebels72.326Boxscore
@ New Mexico Lobos27.718 
San Diego State Aztecs84.235Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams15.820 
Florida Atlantic Owls25.717Boxscore
@ FIU Golden Panthers74.327 
North Texas Mean Green46.026Boxscore
@ Troy Trojans54.027 
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders53.525Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks46.524 
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns55.428Boxscore
@ Arkansas State Red Wolves44.627 
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Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.

Jake Westrich is the Digital Content Coordinator for WhatIfSports.com. He can be reached at jwestrich@whatifsports.com.

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