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Games of the Week: Missouri vs Nebraska

You never forget your first time.

It took Gary Pinkel seven games, but the Missouri (7-0) head coach can rest easier knowing he's beaten Oklahoma.

However, Pinkel's celebration siesta should have quickly turned cat nap with Nebraska lurking in the shadows six days from now.

The Tigers' upset win over top ranked OU can be parlayed into a Big 12 haymaker if their defense can travel to Lincoln and slow down Taylor Martinez and the Cornhuskers.

Nebraska's quarterback is coming off a five touchdown performance against Oklahoma State where he passed for 323 yards and rushed for 112. To be fair, the Cowboys' defense (ranked 89th in points allowed) is far more sparse then the dense defense of Mizzou.

This Black and Gold resistance was apparent when, trailing by one heading into the fourth quarter, the Tigers' defense literally shut down Sooners' quarterback Landry Jones. The trigger for Bob Stoops was forgetting to turn the safety off, failing to throw a completion (0-7) in the last quarter, while getting picked off once.

On the flip side, sneaky good Missouri quarterback Blaine Gabbert was eight-of-nine passing with a touchdown in the fourth to help cap off a 16-six run to end the game.

Nebraska and Missouri are two different styles on offense. Although the Huskers went to the air against Oklahoma State, they are primarily a rushing team propelled by the legs of Martinez. As a team, Nebraska is fifth in the nation in rushing yards per game (290.0), while 100th in passing yards per game (169.1); once again proving last week's air assault was a statistical anomaly.

Time to bust open the cliche pinata (what's with all the Spanish undertones to this article?). Whichever defense blinks first is where the other team will gain an advantage. The Tigers' defense is still fifth in the nation in points-allowed even after allowing Oklahoma to rack up 26 on them last Saturday. Nebraska fell to 17th in points allowed with the Cowboys' 41-point performance.

The Tigers' 17th-ranked rush defense will need to contain Martinez on the ground, while the Huskers' third-ranked pass defense will be in charge of keeping Gabbert in check.

Using our college football simulation engine, we simulated this game 101 times and the Missouri Tigers win 63.4-percent of the time by an average score of 25-23.

Please Note: The Oklahoma State and Penn State games have been re-simulated on 10/28/10.

College Football Week 9
Matchup	Win%	Avg Score
William & Mary Tribe	5.0	5	Boxscore
@ North Carolina Tar Heels	95.0	52
Wake Forest Demon Deacons	40.6	23	Boxscore
@ Maryland Terrapins	59.4	29
Clemson Tigers	67.3	28	Boxscore
@ Boston College Eagles	32.7	25
Florida State Seminoles	71.3	38	Boxscore
@ North Carolina State Wolfpack	28.7	33
Miami (FL) Hurricanes	89.1	31	Boxscore
@ Virginia Cavaliers	10.9	17
Louisville Cardinals	20.8	19	Boxscore
@ Pittsburgh Panthers	79.2	33
Syracuse Orange	26.7	23	Boxscore
@ Cincinnati Bearcats	73.3	30
West Virginia Mountaineers	64.4	27	Boxscore
@ Connecticut Huskies	35.6	23
Michigan State Spartans	29.7	25	Boxscore
@ Iowa Hawkeyes	70.3	35
Michigan Wolverines	31.7	24	Boxscore
@ Penn State Nittany Lions	68.3	31
Purdue Boilermakers	47.5	24	Boxscore
@ Illinois Fighting Illini	52.5	25
Northwestern Wildcats	74.3	32	Boxscore
@ Indiana Hoosiers	25.7	27
Ohio State Buckeyes	95.0	43	Boxscore
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers	5.0	8
Akron Zips	5.0	11	Boxscore
@ Temple Owls	95.0	40
Bowling Green Falcons	8.9	12	Boxscore
@ Central Michigan Chippewas	91.1	30
Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns	16.8	15	Boxscore
@ Ohio Bobcats	83.2	32
Ball State Cardinals	18.8	13	Boxscore
@ Kent State Golden Flashes	81.2	27
Miami (OH) RedHawks	21.8	16	Boxscore
@ Buffalo Bulls	78.2	28
Toledo Rockets	89.1	34	Boxscore
@ Eastern Michigan Eagles	10.9	16
Northern Illinois Huskies	93.1	34	Boxscore
@ Western Michigan Broncos	6.9	15
Washington State Cougars	9.9	18	Boxscore
@ Arizona State Sun Devils	90.1	37
California Golden Bears	66.3	28	Boxscore
@ Oregon State Beavers	33.7	26
Oregon Ducks	87.1	36	Boxscore
@ USC Trojans	12.9	20
Stanford Cardinal	92.1	44	Boxscore
@ Washington Huskies	7.9	28
Arizona Wildcats	94.1	33	Boxscore
@ UCLA Bruins	5.9	15
Vanderbilt Commodores	5.0	16	Boxscore
@ Arkansas Razorbacks	95.0	48
Tennessee Volunteers	9.9	16	Boxscore
@ South Carolina Gamecocks	90.1	36
Kentucky Wildcats	35.6	24	Boxscore
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs	64.4	31
Georgia Bulldogs	46.5	24	Boxscore
@ Florida Gators	53.5	27
Auburn Tigers	83.2	37	Boxscore
@ Mississippi Rebels	16.8	26
Louisiana Tech Bulldogs	5.0	19	Boxscore
@ Boise State Broncos	95.0	47
Utah State Aggies	20.8	28	Boxscore
@ Nevada Wolf Pack	79.2	41
Idaho Vandals	32.7	32	Boxscore
@ Hawaii Warriors	67.3	39
San Jose State Spartans	78.2	25	Boxscore
@ New Mexico State Aggies	21.8	15
Virginia Military Keydets	5.0	7	Boxscore
@ Army Black Knights	95.0	38
Tulsa Golden Hurricane	13.9	23	Boxscore
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish	86.1	39
North Texas Mean Green	58.4	23	Boxscore
@ Western Kentucky Hilltoppers	41.6	22
Duke Blue Devils	62.4	24	Boxscore
@ Navy Midshipmen	37.6	23
Colorado Buffaloes	5.0	16	Boxscore
@ Oklahoma Sooners	95.0	38
Kansas Jayhawks	28.7	20	Boxscore
@ Iowa State Cyclones	71.3	30
Baylor Bears	32.7	24	Boxscore
@ Texas Longhorns	67.3	31
Texas Tech Red Raiders	35.6	28	Boxscore
@ Texas A&M Aggies	64.4	35
Missouri Tigers	63.4	25	Boxscore
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers	36.6	23
Oklahoma State Cowboys	86.1	37	Boxscore
@ Kansas State Wildcats	13.9	22
UAB Blazers	12.9	29	Boxscore
@ Southern Miss Golden Eagles	87.1	45
East Carolina Pirates	21.8	23	Boxscore
@ UCF Knights	78.2	35
Southern Methodist Mustangs	74.3	33	Boxscore
@ Tulane Green Wave	25.7	24
UTEP Miners	76.2	31	Boxscore
@ Marshall Thundering Herd	23.8	23
Houston Cougars	95.0	43	Boxscore
@ Memphis Tigers	5.0	19
New Mexico Lobos	19.8	15	Boxscore
@ Colorado State Rams	80.2	27
San Diego State Aztecs	87.1	29	Boxscore
@ Wyoming Cowboys	12.9	15
Utah Utes	95.0	38	Boxscore
@ Air Force Falcons	5.0	17
TCU Horned Frogs	95.0	52	Boxscore
@ UNLV Rebels	5.0	8
Florida International Golden Panthers	33.7	24	Boxscore
@ Florida Atlantic Owls	66.3	31
Troy Trojans	67.3	32	Boxscore
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks	32.7	27

Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for Whatifsports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.