NCAA College Football Week 4 Picks and Predictions From WhatIfSports.com image

College Football Week 4 Picks and Predictions

Week 4 predictions for every D-I/FBS college football game

By Ryan Fowler - WhatIfSports.com
September 20th, 2010

Each Monday morning, Whatifsports.com's NCAA college football simulation engine will provide you with game predictions for every D-1 FBS game that upcoming week. The college football simulation engine generates detailed information for each game including the home team's chances of winning (Home Win%) and the average points scored for both teams. Make sure to share the college football information you gained here with your friends by either checking out our NCAA football widgets on the WhatIf To Go page or clicking on the social networking share bar at the top and bottom of this article.

Check out our 2010 College Football Season-to-Date page to follow our accuracy and for Locks and Upsets of the Week.

The statistical inputs to the thousands of college football simulations are based on rigorous analysis of each team's roster, depth charts and statistically based player rankings. Roster modifications are made in cases of injury or suspension and those player's are removed from their team's game simulation for that week.

Game of the Week: Arkansas (10) vs Alabama (1)

And with the first pick of the 2011 NFL Draft the Cleveland Browns select...

Ryan Mallett - Quarterback - University of Arkansas.

Woo Pig Sooie.

<a href="http://video.msn.com/?mkt=en-us&brand=foxsports&playlist=videoByUuids:uuids:e90bad8c-a050-4844-ad8f-8b1215159ade&showPlaylist=true&from=IV2_en-us_foxsports_videosearch&fg=RAMP" target="_new" title="WhatIfSports: CFB Game of the Week">Video: WhatIfSports: CFB Game of the Week</a>

It's hard to avoid placing the cart before the horse in college football. Heck, America was ready to crown Denard Robinson the Heisman Trophy winner after week two before he ran into that FCS juggernaut Massachusetts last Saturday. Coincidentally, it was also the Wolverines who saw Mallett and his 6-7 frame walk out of the Big House following the arrival of Rich Rodriguez and his spread offense.

After sitting out the 2008 campaign, Mallett made Bobby Petrino's second year in Fayetteville a bit easier. The former back-up to Chad Henne racked up stats hefty enough to rank him in the top ten in most passing categories. He possessed a QB-rating of 152.5 and tossed 30 touchdowns his red-shirt sophomore season.

That was just an appetizer of what was to come this season. Although, Tennessee Tech and Louisiana-Monroe aren't the definition of college football excellence, the Razorbacks caught the attention of many with their win over Georgia on the road last weekend. Mallet's NFL stock continued to soar by throwing for 380 yards, three touchdowns and no interceptions against the Dawgs.

Now ranked 10th in our weekly power rankings, Mallett will try to lead Arkansas to the biggest win in the Petrino era by beating top ranked Alabama on Saturday.

The Tide didn't miss a beat with reigning Heisman Trophy winner, Mark Ingram, watching from the sidelines in weeks one and two. Back-up bulldozer Trent Richardson picked up the slack and proved he has the talents to lead this team to another BCS win. Well, Ingram returned this week against Duke. Let's just say the knee looks fine.

It took Ingram 3 plays to rush for over 100-yards against the Blue Devils. He later scored two touchdowns on rushes of one and 17 yards.

Not a bad first quarter.

Now the 3-0 Tide faces their second challenge in three weeks. Alabama controlled the tempo in their game against Penn State and dominated on both sides of the ball. They'll need more of the same to survive this SEC test and the uber-pass-happy Razborbacks.

Using our college football simulation engine, we simulated Arkansas versus Alabama 101 times. In the end, the Crimson Tide won over 79-percent of the time by an average score of 37-30. Taking a closer look at the box score, the Tide does their damage on the ground (5.1 ypr), while Mallett focuses his efforts on the passing game (342 yds pass/game).

College Football Week 4
MatchupWin%Avg Score
Florida International Golden Panthers 5.011
@ Maryland Terrapins95.038
Virginia Military Keydets 5.07
@ Virginia Cavaliers95.044
North Carolina State Wolfpack 7.922
@ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets92.141
Wake Forest Demon Deacons 9.921
@ Florida State Seminoles90.141
Army Black Knights20.816
@ Duke Blue Devils79.229
Virginia Tech Hokies77.231
@ Boston College Eagles22.821
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 5.011
@ South Florida Bulls95.045
Colgate Raiders 5.07
@ Syracuse Orange95.054
Buffalo Bulls 6.913
@ Connecticut Huskies93.136
Miami (FL) Hurricanes34.726
@ Pittsburgh Panthers65.334
Oklahoma Sooners73.335
@ Cincinnati Bearcats26.729
North Carolina Tar Heels80.224
@ Rutgers Scarlet Knights19.815
Ball State Cardinals 5.07
@ Iowa Hawkeyes95.044
Northern Colorado Bears 5.09
@ Michigan State Spartans95.060
Eastern Michigan Eagles 5.05
@ Ohio State Buckeyes95.058
Austin Peay Governors 5.06
@ Wisconsin Badgers95.065
Bowling Green Falcons 7.916
@ Michigan Wolverines92.138
Central Michigan Chippewas19.817
@ Northwestern Wildcats80.229
Toledo Rockets23.819
@ Purdue Boilermakers76.231
Temple Owls28.720
@ Penn State Nittany Lions71.329
Akron Zips35.620
@ Indiana Hoosiers64.428
Northern Illinois Huskies70.326
@ Minnesota Golden Gophers29.721
California Golden Bears38.628
@ Arizona Wildcats61.432
Oregon Ducks92.133
@ Arizona State Sun Devils 7.913
USC Trojans95.039
@ Washington State Cougars 5.016
Kentucky Wildcats 8.916
@ Florida Gators91.138
UAB Blazers 9.919
@ Tennessee Volunteers90.136
South Carolina Gamecocks31.723
@ Auburn Tigers68.333
West Virginia Mountaineers49.524
@ LSU Tigers50.525
Fresno State Bulldogs55.433
@ Mississippi Rebels44.632
Georgia Bulldogs78.233
@ Mississippi State Bulldogs21.823
Alabama Crimson Tide79.237
@ Arkansas Razorbacks20.830
Charleston Southern Buccaneers 5.06
@ Hawaii Warriors95.055
Oregon State Beavers24.832
@ Boise State Broncos75.242
Southern Miss Golden Eagles66.333
@ Louisiana Tech Bulldogs33.730
Stanford Cardinal62.438
@ Notre Dame Fighting Irish37.634
New Mexico State Aggies 5.011
@ Kansas Jayhawks95.035
South Dakota State Jackrabbits 5.04
@ Nebraska Cornhuskers95.061
Northern Iowa Panthers 5.09
@ Iowa State Cyclones95.044
Miami (OH) RedHawks 5.09
@ Missouri Tigers95.043
UCLA Bruins10.912
@ Texas Longhorns89.131
UCF Knights43.622
@ Kansas State Wildcats56.427
Central Arkansas Bears 5.09
@ Tulsa Golden Hurricane95.036
Tulane Green Wave 5.922
@ Houston Cougars94.144
Memphis Tigers21.821
@ UTEP Miners78.234
Ohio Bobcats61.425
@ Marshall Thundering Herd38.621
Baylor Bears87.133
@ Rice Owls12.921
TCU Horned Frogs95.041
@ Southern Methodist Mustangs 5.024
San Jose State Spartans 5.08
@ Utah Utes95.044
New Mexico Lobos34.719
@ UNLV Rebels65.327
Utah State Aggies55.426
@ San Diego State Aztecs44.625
Nevada Wolf Pack63.435
@ Brigham Young Cougars36.631
Air Force Falcons84.231
@ Wyoming Cowboys15.819
Idaho Vandals94.141
@ Colorado State Rams 5.923
Southeastern Louisiana Lions 5.09
@ Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks95.046
Arkansas State Red Wolves 6.919
@ Troy Trojans93.138
North Texas Mean Green26.726
@ Florida Atlantic Owls73.334
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders86.129
@ Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns13.915

Ryan Fowler is the Content Manager for Whatifsports.com. He can be reached at rfowler@whatifsports.com.

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