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2009 NFL Season-to-Date

Locks, Upsets, Picks, Predictions and Performance
By Michael Schneid, WhatIfSports.com
UPDATED: February 8th, 2010

Related Features

Super Bowl XLIV Preview
2009 NFL Playoff Preview
FOXSports.com - NFL
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Each Tuesday morning, we provide our NFL predictions for the upcoming week straight up and against the spread. Below is a breakdown of our prediction performance (whether our favored team actually wins), as well as some weekly picks like Upset of the Week (a team we pick to win outright that is an underdog) and Lock of the Week (the team that wins the highest percentage against the spread).

This week, it's the Super Bowl XLIV Preview. All our NFL content, including our final 2009 NFL power rankings and links to the pre-season preview are located here.

Now that the regular season is over, are you interested in how we fared versus the competition? How about first place in the Richard Gardner NFL experts contest.


Overall Regular Season Performance (through 1/11/10)
Overall Winning Percentage: 69.9%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 58.1%*
Game of the Week: 13-4
ATS Lock of the Week: 12-5
Upset of the Week: 7-10
NOTE: Overall performance does NOT include playoffs performance
Link to 2009 NFL Content

Overall Playoff Performance (through 2/08/10)
Overall Winning Percentage: 63.6%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 54.5%
ATS Lock of the Week: 3-1 (includes Super Bowl)
Upset of the Week: 2-1
Link to 2009 NFL Content

Super Bowl XLIV:
Overall Winning Percentage: 100% (predicted Saints 27-25, Saints won)
Spread: -5.5 (correct, Saints won by 14)
Over/Under: 56.5 (correct, 61.9% of time - 48 was total points)
Link to Super Bowl XLIV Preview and Boxscore

Conference Championships:
Overall Winning Percentage: 50%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 0% (Saints -4, won by only 3)
ATS Lock of the Week: Jets +7.5 @ Colts (incorrect, Jets lost 30-17)
Upset of the Week: Jets 22 @ Colts 21 (incorrect, Jets lost 30-17)
Link to Conference Championship Picks

Divisional Week
Overall Winning Percentage: 50%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 50%
ATS Lock of the Week: Jets +9 @ Chargers (correct, Jets win 17-14)
Upset of the Week: Jets 24 @ Chargers 19 (correct, Jets win 17-14)
Link to Divisional Week Picks

Wild Card Week
Overall Winning Percentage: 75%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 75%
ATS Lock of the Week: Jets +2.5 @ Bengals (correct, Jets win 24-14)
Upset of the Week: Ravens 23 @ Patriots 21 (correct, Ravens win 33-14)
Link to Wild Card Week Picks

NFL Week 17
Overall Winning Percentage: 81.3%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 45.5%*
Game of the Week: Bengals 12 @ Jets 22 (correct, Jets win 37-0)
ATS Lock of the Week: Packers +3 over Cardinals (correct, Packers win 33-7)
Upset of the Week: Patriots 23 @ Texans 22 (incorrect, Patriots lose 27-34)
Link to Week 17 NFL Picks

NFL Week 16
Overall Winning Percentage: 56.3%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 33.3%*
Game of the Week: Ravens 21 @ Steelers 27 (correct, Steelers win 23-20)
ATS Lock of the Week: Dolphins -3 vs. Texans (incorrect, Texans win 27-20)
Upset of the Week: Bills 21 @ Falcons 20 (incorrect, Falcons win 31-3)
Link to Week 16 NFL Picks

NFL Week 15
Overall Winning Percentage: 69%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 40%*
Game of the Week: Bengals 20 @ Chargers 24 (correct, Chargers win 27-24)
ATS Lock of the Week: Steelers -1 over Packers (correct, Steelers win 38-37)
Upset of the Week: Steelers 28 over Packers 22 (correct, Steelers win 38-37)
Link to Week 15 NFL Picks

NFL Week 14
Overall Winning Percentage: 80%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 69%*
Game of the Week: Broncos 23 @ Colts 24 (correct, Colts win 28-16)
ATS Lock of the Week: San Francisco +3 over Cardinals (correct, 49ers win 24-9)
Upset of the Week: San Francisco 27 over Cardinals 23 (correct, 49ers win 24-9)
Link to Week 14 NFL Picks

NFL Week 13
Overall Winning Percentage: 60%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 57.1%*
Game of the Week: Dallas 24 @ New York Giants 22 (incorrect, Giants win 31-24)
ATS Lock of the Week: San Francisco +1 over Seattle (incorrect, Seattle wins 20-17)
Upset of the Week: Baltimore 23 @ Green Bay 22 (incorrect, Green Bay wins 27-14)
Link to Week 13 NFL Picks

NFL Week 12
Overall Winning Percentage: 75.0%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 72.7%*
Game of the Week: New England 24 @ New Orleans 33 (correct, New Orleans wins 38-17)
ATS Lock of the Week: New Orleans -3 over New England (correct, New Orleans wins 38-17)
Upset of the Week: Carolina 23 @ New York Jets 22 (incorrect, New York wins 17-6)
Link to Week 12 NFL Picks

NFL Week 11
Overall Winning Percentage: 81.3%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 92.3%*
Game of the Week: Atlanta 21 @ New York Giants 24 (correct, New York wins 34-31)
ATS Lock of the Week: Tennessee +4.5 @ Houston (correct, Tennessee wins 20-17)
Upset of the Week: Tennessee 23 @ Houston 20 (correct, Tennessee wins 20-17)
Link to Week 11 NFL Picks

NFL Week 10
Overall Winning Percentage: 53.3%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 33.3%*
Game of the Week: Indianapolis 27 - New England 25 (correct, Indianapolis wins 35-34)
ATS Lock of the Week: Atlanta +1 over Carolina (incorrect, Carolina wins 28-19)
Upset of the Week: Philadelphia over San Diego (incorrect, San Diego wins 31-23)
Link to Week 10 NFL Picks

NFL Week 9
Overall Winning Percentage: 69.2%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 66.7%*
Game of the Week: Cincinnati 23 - Baltimore 20 (correct, Cincinnati wins 17-7)
ATS Lock of the Week: San Diego +4.5 over New York Giants (correct, San Diego wins 21-20)
Upset of the Week: San Diego over New York Giants (correct, San Diego wins 21-20)
Link to Week 9 NFL Picks

NFL Week 8
Overall Winning Percentage: 69.2%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 44.4%*
Game of the Week: Minnesota 22 - Green Bay 25 (incorrect, Minnesota wins 38-26)
ATS Lock of the Week: Cleveland +13.5 against Chicago (incorrect, Chicago wins 30-6)
Upset of the Week: Denver over Baltimore (incorrect, Baltimore wins 30-7)
Link to Week 8 NFL Picks

NFL Week 7
Overall Winning Percentage: 76.9%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 45.5%*
Game of the Week: Minnesota 24 - Pittsburgh 23 (incorrect, Pittsburgh wins 27-17)
ATS Lock of the Week: Arizona +7 @ New York Giants (correct, Arizona wins 24-17)
Upset of the Week: Minnesota over Pittsburgh (incorrect, Pittsburgh wins 27-17)
Link to Week 7 NFL Picks

NFL Week 6
Overall Winning Percentage: 64.3%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 60.0%*
Game of the Week: New Orleans 30 - New York Giants 24 (correct, New Orleans wins 48-27)
ATS Lock of the Week: Kansas City +6.5 @ Washington (correct, Kansas City wins 14-6)
Upset of the Week: Denver over San Diego (correct, Denver wins 34-23)
Link to Week 6 NFL Picks

NFL Week 5
Overall Winning Percentage: 57.1%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 66.7%*
Game of the Week: San Francisco 23 - Atlanta 17 (incorrect, Atlanta wins 45-10)
ATS Lock of the Week: Indianapolis -3.5 over Tennessee (correct, Indianapolis wins 31-9)
Upset of the Week: Washington over Carolina (incorrect, Carolina wins 20-17)
Link to Week 5 NFL Picks

NFL Week 4
Overall Winning Percentage: 71.4%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 41.7%*
Game of the Week: New Orleans Saints 25 - New York Jets 19 (correct, New Orleans wins 24-10)
ATS Lock of the Week: Oakland +9.5 vs. Houston (incorrect, Houston wins 29-6)
Upset of the Week: Baltimore over New England (incorrect, New England wins 27-21)
Link to Week 4 NFL Picks

NFL Week 3
Overall Winning Percentage: 75%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 84.6%*
Game of the Week: Minnesota 23 - San Francisco 19 (correct, won 27-24)
ATS Lock of the Week: New York Jets -1 over Tennessee (correct, won 24-17)
Upset of the Week: Denver over Oakland (correct, won 23-3)
Link to Week 3 NFL Picks

NFL Week 2
Overall Winning Percentage: 68.8%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 66.7%*
Game of the Week: New York Jets 21 - New England 17 (correct, won 16-9)
ATS Lock of the Week: Arizona +3 over Jacksonville (correct, won 31-17)
Upset of the Week: New York Jets over New England (correct, won 16-9)
Link to Week 2 NFL Picks

NFL Week 1
Overall Winning Percentage: 75.0%
Winning Percentage Against the Spread: 50.0%*
Game of the Week: Pittsburgh 24 - Tennessee 13 (correct, won 13-10)
ATS Lock of the Week: Minnesota -4 over Cleveland (correct, won 34-20)
Upset of the Week: Miami over Atlanta (incorrect, lost 19-7)
Link to Week 1 NFL Picks

*(Any pick below 52.5% to win ATS is a NO PICK)

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