2009 College Football Projections: Week 7 From WhatIfSports.com image

2009 College Football Projections

Week 7 NCAA Football Predictions
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
August 23rd, 2009

WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week. Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl match-ups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program with Gridiron Dynasty.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage. We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 10,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 7 (10/17/09).

Game of the Week: #3 Oklahoma 33 vs. #2 Texas 37
It's the biggest game on the schedule and should very likely feature two undefeated teams yet again in 2009. Texas won the 2008 contest 45-35, evening the series between quarterbacks Sam Bradford and Colt McCoy at a win a piece. McCoy and Bradford are a wash in the passing game, while the defenses are essentially even as well. The difference in this game should come on the offensive line. Texas returns four starters, including senior standout tackle Adam Ulatoski, while Oklahoma brings back just one starter on the line. The Sooners may have the more talented running backs, but it will not mean much if Sergio Kindle and the Texas defense is always in the backfield. A shootout with teams combining for 70 or more points shouldn't be a surprise. In the simulations, Texas wins the Red River Rivalry 61.5% of the time and by an average score of 37-33.


MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Wake Forest @ Clemson87.76-20
Virginia @ Maryland83.49-25
Virginia Tech @ Georgia Tech38.221-19
North Carolina State @ Boston College23.320-13
Missouri @ Oklahoma State95.025-48
Oklahoma @ Texas61.533-37
Texas A&M @ Kansas State58.816-21
Texas Tech @ Nebraska45.530-31
Baylor @ Iowa State5.040-18
Kansas @ Colorado5.036-15
Marshall @ West Virginia95.09-39
Cincinnati @ South Florida69.120-28
Louisville @ Connecticut64.814-20
Pittsburgh @ Rutgers56.118-22
Delaware State @ Michigan95.09-30
Minnesota @ Penn State90.711-30
Northwestern @ Michigan State79.17-17
Iowa @ Wisconsin18.927-17
Illinois @ Indiana5.038-11
Ohio State @ Purdue5.033-8
Memphis @ Southern Miss95.011-38
Rice @ East Carolina81.414-28
Boise State @ Tulsa28.931-26
Navy @ Southern Methodist12.031-16
Houston @ Tulane5.046-15
Miami (FL) @ UCF5.025-8
Louisiana-Lafayette @ Western Kentucky8.027-10
USC @ Notre Dame5.038-11
Miami (OH) @ Ohio95.09-29
Army @ Temple64.111-17
Northern Illinois @ Toledo60.516-22
Central Michigan @ Western Michigan52.823-27
Akron @ Buffalo47.519-21
Bowling Green @ Ball State46.220-21
Kent State @ Eastern Michigan24.324-15
Colorado State @ TCU95.08-34
Wyoming @ Air Force95.08-32
Utah @ UNLV6.331-13
Brigham Young @ San Diego State5.038-13
Washington @ Arizona State89.49-27
Stanford @ Arizona66.820-28
California @ UCLA5.034-6
Arkansas @ Florida95.08-58
South Carolina @ Alabama95.05-33
UAB @ Mississippi95.011-50
Kentucky @ Auburn65.49-15
Georgia @ Vanderbilt8.325-10
Mississippi State @ Middle Tennessee50.814-16
Troy @ Florida International31.921-16
Florida Atlantic @ North Texas26.625-17
Arkansas State @ Louisiana-Monroe6.629-11
New Mexico State @ Louisiana Tech93.410-32
San Jose State @ Fresno State70.110-20
Hawaii @ Idaho19.324-16
Nevada @ Utah State5.338-17

Week 7 Standings

ConferenceTeamAbs RecordExp Record
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina State6 - 15 - 2
Atlantic CoastVirginia Tech6 - 15 - 2
Atlantic CoastGeorgia Tech5 - 25 - 2
Atlantic CoastFlorida State6 - 04 - 2
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina5 - 14 - 2
Atlantic CoastClemson4 - 24 - 2
Atlantic CoastMaryland4 - 34 - 3
Atlantic CoastDuke3 - 33 - 3
Atlantic CoastMiami (FL)2 - 43 - 3
Atlantic CoastWake Forest2 - 53 - 4
Atlantic CoastVirginia2 - 42 - 4
Atlantic CoastBoston College2 - 52 - 5
Big 12Oklahoma State6 - 06 - 0
Big 12Kansas6 - 05 - 1
Big 12Baylor5 - 15 - 1
Big 12Texas6 - 05 - 1
Big 12Oklahoma5 - 15 - 1
Big 12Texas Tech5 - 25 - 2
Big 12Nebraska3 - 34 - 2
Big 12Kansas State4 - 34 - 3
Big 12Missouri3 - 33 - 3
Big 12Colorado2 - 42 - 4
Big 12Texas A&M0 - 62 - 4
Big 12Iowa State2 - 52 - 5
Big EastWest Virginia6 - 06 - 0
Big EastRutgers6 - 05 - 1
Big EastSouth Florida5 - 15 - 1
Big EastPittsburgh6 - 15 - 2
Big EastCincinnati3 - 34 - 2
Big EastConnecticut3 - 33 - 3
Big EastLouisville2 - 42 - 4
Big EastSyracuse1 - 51 - 5
Big TenPenn State7 - 06 - 1
Big TenIowa6 - 16 - 1
Big TenOhio State6 - 16 - 1
Big TenNorthwestern5 - 25 - 2
Big TenIllinois4 - 24 - 2
Big TenWisconsin5 - 24 - 3
Big TenMichigan State4 - 34 - 3
Big TenMichigan3 - 44 - 3
Big TenMinnesota3 - 44 - 3
Big TenPurdue2 - 52 - 5
Big TenIndiana1 - 62 - 5
Conference USASouthern Miss6 - 16 - 1
Conference USAEast Carolina5 - 25 - 2
Conference USAHouston5 - 14 - 2
Conference USATulsa4 - 24 - 2
Conference USAMarshall3 - 43 - 4
Conference USAMemphis2 - 53 - 4
Conference USASouthern Methodist2 - 42 - 4
Conference USATulane1 - 52 - 4
Conference USAUAB2 - 42 - 4
Conference USAUTEP3 - 32 - 4
Conference USAUCF1 - 52 - 4
Conference USARice1 - 62 - 5
Independents (FBS)Notre Dame5 - 14 - 2
Independents (FBS)Navy4 - 34 - 3
Independents (FBS)Army2 - 52 - 5
Independents (FBS)Western Kentucky0 - 61 - 5
Mid-AmericanWestern Michigan7 - 06 - 1
Mid-AmericanBall State6 - 15 - 2
Mid-AmericanCentral Michigan4 - 34 - 3
Mid-AmericanKent State4 - 34 - 3
Mid-AmericanOhio4 - 34 - 3
Mid-AmericanAkron3 - 33 - 3
Mid-AmericanNorthern Illinois2 - 43 - 3
Mid-AmericanTemple3 - 33 - 3
Mid-AmericanBowling Green4 - 33 - 4
Mid-AmericanBuffalo3 - 43 - 4
Mid-AmericanToledo1 - 62 - 5
Mid-AmericanEastern Michigan0 - 61 - 5
Mid-AmericanMiami (OH)0 - 70 - 7
Mountain WestTCU6 - 05 - 1
Mountain WestUtah5 - 15 - 1
Mountain WestAir Force6 - 15 - 2
Mountain WestBrigham Young5 - 25 - 2
Mountain WestSan Diego State3 - 33 - 3
Mountain WestColorado State3 - 43 - 4
Mountain WestUNLV3 - 43 - 4
Mountain WestWyoming2 - 53 - 4
Mountain WestNew Mexico2 - 42 - 4
Pacific-10USC6 - 06 - 0
Pacific-10Oregon State6 - 05 - 1
Pacific-10California5 - 15 - 1
Pacific-10Stanford5 - 25 - 2
Pacific-10Arizona State4 - 24 - 2
Pacific-10Oregon5 - 14 - 2
Pacific-10Arizona4 - 24 - 2
Pacific-10UCLA2 - 42 - 4
Pacific-10Washington State0 - 61 - 5
Pacific-10Washington1 - 61 - 6
SoutheasternFlorida6 - 06 - 0
SoutheasternAlabama7 - 06 - 1
SoutheasternLSU5 - 15 - 1
SoutheasternMississippi5 - 15 - 1
SoutheasternGeorgia5 - 25 - 2
SoutheasternTennessee4 - 24 - 2
SoutheasternVanderbilt4 - 34 - 3
SoutheasternArkansas3 - 33 - 3
SoutheasternSouth Carolina3 - 43 - 4
SoutheasternKentucky1 - 52 - 4
SoutheasternAuburn2 - 52 - 5
SoutheasternMississippi State1 - 62 - 5
Sun BeltArkansas State3 - 23 - 2
Sun BeltFlorida International3 - 33 - 3
Sun BeltLouisiana-Lafayette4 - 23 - 3
Sun BeltTroy4 - 23 - 3
Sun BeltMiddle Tennessee4 - 33 - 4
Sun BeltFlorida Atlantic3 - 22 - 3
Sun BeltLouisiana-Monroe1 - 51 - 5
Sun BeltNorth Texas0 - 71 - 6
Western AthleticBoise State5 - 15 - 1
Western AthleticNevada5 - 14 - 2
Western AthleticLouisiana Tech4 - 24 - 2
Western AthleticFresno State3 - 33 - 3
Western AthleticHawaii3 - 33 - 3
Western AthleticNew Mexico State2 - 53 - 4
Western AthleticSan Jose State2 - 42 - 4
Western AthleticUtah State3 - 32 - 4
Western AthleticIdaho0 - 71 - 6

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school.

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

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