2009 College Football Projections: Week 6 From WhatIfSports.com image

2009 College Football Projections

Week 6 NCAA Football Predictions
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
August 22nd, 2009

WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week. Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl match-ups with results.

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program with Gridiron Dynasty.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 10,000 times. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we don't expect any to do so.

Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage. We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 10,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 6 (10/10/09).

Game of the Week: #14 Georgia Tech 20 @ #18 Florida State 21
Florida @ LSU, Baylor @ Oklahoma and Wisconsin @ Ohio State may be bigger games for the national championship picture, but we will throw the ACC some love for one of its top games of the season. Head coach Paul Johnson will bring his option attack and nine returning offensive starters to Tallahassee to take on a Seminole team with a defense in flux. It's in the other matchup where the game will likely be won or lost. The Yellow Jackets will move the ball on the ground, but may have trouble scoring touchdowns. Florida State should be a more balanced team with athletic junior quarterback Christian Ponder and all five guys back on the offensive line. There is plenty of talent at the skill positions for the Seminoles, but it is mostly unproven. By Week 6, offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher should know who he can trust. Homefield advantage and the ability to make some big plays through the passing game should make the difference in a game that as close as it gets. Florida State wins just 50.2% of the time by an average score of 21-20.


MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Boston College @ Virginia Tech95.07-33
Florida A&M @ Miami (FL)95.05-38
Georgia Southern @ North Carolina95.05-35
Duke @ North Carolina State77.714-26
Indiana @ Virginia63.512-19
Georgia Tech @ Florida State50.220-21
Maryland @ Wake Forest48.517-18
Baylor @ Oklahoma95.016-45
Colorado @ Texas95.06-56
Iowa State @ Kansas95.014-46
Kansas State @ Texas Tech95.010-38
Nebraska @ Missouri52.228-31
Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M5.055-13
Connecticut @ Pittsburgh78.79-19
Southern Miss @ Louisville12.331-19
West Virginia @ Syracuse5.040-7
Eastern Illinois @ Penn State95.05-48
Miami (OH) @ Northwestern95.06-28
Michigan @ Iowa95.06-31
Purdue @ Minnesota92.06-24
Wisconsin @ Ohio State86.412-31
Michigan State @ Illinois79.413-26
UTEP @ Memphis39.526-24
Navy @ Rice33.627-23
Marshall @ Tulane25.923-16
East Carolina @ Southern Methodist5.328-10
Vanderbilt @ Army8.620-7
Florida International @ Western Kentucky5.026-7
Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan94.49-31
Gardner-Webb @ Buffalo86.08-24
Ohio @ Akron44.519-20
Ball State @ Temple37.518-16
Bowling Green @ Kent State33.623-19
Western Michigan @ Toledo17.929-18
New Mexico @ Wyoming50.516-17
TCU @ Air Force21.625-17
Brigham Young @ UNLV6.034-18
Utah @ Colorado State6.032-13
Stanford @ Oregon State69.820-30
Arizona @ Washington5.032-11
Arizona State @ Washington State5.030-6
Oregon @ UCLA5.030-11
Auburn @ Arkansas81.413-28
Kentucky @ South Carolina77.47-17
Alabama @ Mississippi42.222-21
Georgia @ Tennessee25.222-15
Houston @ Mississippi State6.037-15
Florida @ LSU5.040-17
North Texas @ Louisiana-Lafayette81.413-27
Middle Tennessee @ Troy79.412-24
Idaho @ San Jose State87.09-22
Louisiana Tech @ Nevada70.821-31
Utah State @ New Mexico State32.619-16
Fresno State @ Hawaii22.627-18

Week 6 Standings

ConferenceTeamAbs RecordExp Record
Atlantic CoastGeorgia Tech5 - 15 - 1
Atlantic CoastVirginia Tech5 - 15 - 1
Atlantic CoastFlorida State6 - 04 - 2
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina State5 - 14 - 2
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina5 - 14 - 2
Atlantic CoastClemson3 - 23 - 2
Atlantic CoastDuke3 - 33 - 3
Atlantic CoastMaryland3 - 33 - 3
Atlantic CoastWake Forest2 - 43 - 3
Atlantic CoastVirginia2 - 32 - 3
Atlantic CoastMiami (FL)1 - 42 - 3
Atlantic CoastBoston College2 - 42 - 4
Big 12Oklahoma State5 - 05 - 0
Big 12Oklahoma5 - 05 - 0
Big 12Texas5 - 05 - 0
Big 12Kansas5 - 04 - 1
Big 12Baylor4 - 14 - 1
Big 12Texas Tech4 - 24 - 2
Big 12Missouri3 - 23 - 2
Big 12Nebraska3 - 23 - 2
Big 12Kansas State3 - 33 - 3
Big 12Colorado2 - 32 - 3
Big 12Iowa State2 - 42 - 4
Big 12Texas A&M0 - 51 - 4
Big EastWest Virginia5 - 05 - 0
Big EastPittsburgh6 - 05 - 1
Big EastRutgers5 - 04 - 1
Big EastSouth Florida4 - 14 - 1
Big EastCincinnati3 - 23 - 2
Big EastConnecticut2 - 32 - 3
Big EastLouisville2 - 32 - 3
Big EastSyracuse1 - 51 - 5
Big TenPenn State6 - 05 - 1
Big TenIowa5 - 15 - 1
Big TenNorthwestern5 - 15 - 1
Big TenOhio State5 - 15 - 1
Big TenWisconsin5 - 14 - 2
Big TenIllinois3 - 23 - 2
Big TenMichigan State3 - 33 - 3
Big TenMichigan2 - 43 - 3
Big TenMinnesota3 - 33 - 3
Big TenPurdue2 - 42 - 4
Big TenIndiana1 - 52 - 4
Conference USASouthern Miss5 - 15 - 1
Conference USAHouston4 - 14 - 1
Conference USATulsa4 - 14 - 1
Conference USAEast Carolina4 - 24 - 2
Conference USAMarshall3 - 33 - 3
Conference USAMemphis2 - 43 - 3
Conference USASouthern Methodist2 - 32 - 3
Conference USAUAB2 - 32 - 3
Conference USATulane1 - 42 - 3
Conference USAUCF1 - 42 - 3
Conference USARice1 - 52 - 4
Conference USAUTEP3 - 32 - 4
Independents (FBS)Notre Dame5 - 04 - 1
Independents (FBS)Navy3 - 33 - 3
Independents (FBS)Army2 - 42 - 4
Independents (FBS)Western Kentucky0 - 51 - 4
Mid-AmericanWestern Michigan6 - 05 - 1
Mid-AmericanBall State6 - 04 - 2
Mid-AmericanCentral Michigan4 - 24 - 2
Mid-AmericanKent State3 - 33 - 3
Mid-AmericanOhio3 - 33 - 3
Mid-AmericanAkron2 - 32 - 3
Mid-AmericanNorthern Illinois2 - 32 - 3
Mid-AmericanTemple2 - 32 - 3
Mid-AmericanBowling Green3 - 32 - 4
Mid-AmericanBuffalo3 - 32 - 4
Mid-AmericanToledo0 - 62 - 4
Mid-AmericanEastern Michigan0 - 51 - 4
Mid-AmericanMiami (OH)0 - 60 - 6
Mountain WestTCU5 - 04 - 1
Mountain WestUtah4 - 14 - 1
Mountain WestAir Force5 - 14 - 2
Mountain WestBrigham Young4 - 24 - 2
Mountain WestSan Diego State3 - 23 - 2
Mountain WestColorado State3 - 33 - 3
Mountain WestUNLV3 - 33 - 3
Mountain WestNew Mexico2 - 42 - 4
Mountain WestWyoming2 - 42 - 4
Pacific-10USC5 - 05 - 0
Pacific-10Oregon State6 - 05 - 1
Pacific-10California4 - 14 - 1
Pacific-10Oregon5 - 14 - 2
Pacific-10Stanford5 - 14 - 2
Pacific-10Arizona State3 - 23 - 2
Pacific-10Arizona3 - 23 - 2
Pacific-10UCLA2 - 32 - 3
Pacific-10Washington1 - 51 - 5
Pacific-10Washington State0 - 61 - 5
SoutheasternFlorida5 - 05 - 0
SoutheasternAlabama6 - 05 - 1
SoutheasternLSU5 - 15 - 1
SoutheasternMississippi4 - 14 - 1
SoutheasternGeorgia4 - 24 - 2
SoutheasternTennessee4 - 24 - 2
SoutheasternArkansas3 - 23 - 2
SoutheasternSouth Carolina3 - 33 - 3
SoutheasternVanderbilt4 - 23 - 3
SoutheasternAuburn1 - 52 - 4
SoutheasternMississippi State1 - 52 - 4
SoutheasternKentucky1 - 41 - 4
Sun BeltFlorida International3 - 23 - 2
Sun BeltTroy3 - 23 - 2
Sun BeltMiddle Tennessee3 - 33 - 3
Sun BeltArkansas State2 - 22 - 2
Sun BeltFlorida Atlantic2 - 22 - 2
Sun BeltLouisiana-Lafayette3 - 22 - 3
Sun BeltLouisiana-Monroe1 - 41 - 4
Sun BeltNorth Texas0 - 61 - 5
Western AthleticBoise State4 - 14 - 1
Western AthleticLouisiana Tech3 - 23 - 2
Western AthleticNevada4 - 13 - 2
Western AthleticNew Mexico State2 - 43 - 3
Western AthleticFresno State2 - 32 - 3
Western AthleticHawaii2 - 32 - 3
Western AthleticUtah State3 - 22 - 3
Western AthleticSan Jose State2 - 32 - 3
Western AthleticIdaho0 - 61 - 5

A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school.

Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

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