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WhatIfSports.com will preview a week of the college football season each day for 15 days, including projected scores from 10,000 simulations for all FBS games and updated standings as of that week. Once we have reached the end of the season, we will present our projected bowl match-ups with results.
Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2009. A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.
Also, see below for details on how you can run your own college football program with Gridiron Dynasty.
Also, since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage. We are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.
The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2008. Once this step is complete, we make our modifications for 2009 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.
Games for each week are ordered by the conference of the home team and then winning percentage of the home team, with the score reading the visitors first followed by the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 10,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. James Madison vs. Maryland), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.
Today we preview Week 6 (10/10/09).
Game of the Week: #14 Georgia Tech 20 @ #18 Florida State 21
Florida @ LSU, Baylor @ Oklahoma and Wisconsin @ Ohio State may be bigger games for the national championship picture, but we will throw the ACC some love for one of its top games of the season. Head coach Paul Johnson will bring his option attack and nine returning offensive starters to Tallahassee to take on a Seminole team with a defense in flux. It's in the other matchup where the game will likely be won or lost. The Yellow Jackets will move the ball on the ground, but may have trouble scoring touchdowns. Florida State should be a more balanced team with athletic junior quarterback Christian Ponder and all five guys back on the offensive line. There is plenty of talent at the skill positions for the Seminoles, but it is mostly unproven. By Week 6, offensive coordinator Jimbo Fisher should know who he can trust. Homefield advantage and the ability to make some big plays through the passing game should make the difference in a game that as close as it gets. Florida State wins just 50.2% of the time by an average score of 21-20.
| Matchup | Home Win% | Avg Score |
|---|---|---|
| Boston College @ Virginia Tech | 95.0 | 7-33 |
| Florida A&M @ Miami (FL) | 95.0 | 5-38 |
| Georgia Southern @ North Carolina | 95.0 | 5-35 |
| Duke @ North Carolina State | 77.7 | 14-26 |
| Indiana @ Virginia | 63.5 | 12-19 |
| Georgia Tech @ Florida State | 50.2 | 20-21 |
| Maryland @ Wake Forest | 48.5 | 17-18 |
| Baylor @ Oklahoma | 95.0 | 16-45 |
| Colorado @ Texas | 95.0 | 6-56 |
| Iowa State @ Kansas | 95.0 | 14-46 |
| Kansas State @ Texas Tech | 95.0 | 10-38 |
| Nebraska @ Missouri | 52.2 | 28-31 |
| Oklahoma State @ Texas A&M | 5.0 | 55-13 |
| Connecticut @ Pittsburgh | 78.7 | 9-19 |
| Southern Miss @ Louisville | 12.3 | 31-19 |
| West Virginia @ Syracuse | 5.0 | 40-7 |
| Eastern Illinois @ Penn State | 95.0 | 5-48 |
| Miami (OH) @ Northwestern | 95.0 | 6-28 |
| Michigan @ Iowa | 95.0 | 6-31 |
| Purdue @ Minnesota | 92.0 | 6-24 |
| Wisconsin @ Ohio State | 86.4 | 12-31 |
| Michigan State @ Illinois | 79.4 | 13-26 |
| UTEP @ Memphis | 39.5 | 26-24 |
| Navy @ Rice | 33.6 | 27-23 |
| Marshall @ Tulane | 25.9 | 23-16 |
| East Carolina @ Southern Methodist | 5.3 | 28-10 |
| Vanderbilt @ Army | 8.6 | 20-7 |
| Florida International @ Western Kentucky | 5.0 | 26-7 |
| Eastern Michigan @ Central Michigan | 94.4 | 9-31 |
| Gardner-Webb @ Buffalo | 86.0 | 8-24 |
| Ohio @ Akron | 44.5 | 19-20 |
| Ball State @ Temple | 37.5 | 18-16 |
| Bowling Green @ Kent State | 33.6 | 23-19 |
| Western Michigan @ Toledo | 17.9 | 29-18 |
| New Mexico @ Wyoming | 50.5 | 16-17 |
| TCU @ Air Force | 21.6 | 25-17 |
| Brigham Young @ UNLV | 6.0 | 34-18 |
| Utah @ Colorado State | 6.0 | 32-13 |
| Stanford @ Oregon State | 69.8 | 20-30 |
| Arizona @ Washington | 5.0 | 32-11 |
| Arizona State @ Washington State | 5.0 | 30-6 |
| Oregon @ UCLA | 5.0 | 30-11 |
| Auburn @ Arkansas | 81.4 | 13-28 |
| Kentucky @ South Carolina | 77.4 | 7-17 |
| Alabama @ Mississippi | 42.2 | 22-21 |
| Georgia @ Tennessee | 25.2 | 22-15 |
| Houston @ Mississippi State | 6.0 | 37-15 |
| Florida @ LSU | 5.0 | 40-17 |
| North Texas @ Louisiana-Lafayette | 81.4 | 13-27 |
| Middle Tennessee @ Troy | 79.4 | 12-24 |
| Idaho @ San Jose State | 87.0 | 9-22 |
| Louisiana Tech @ Nevada | 70.8 | 21-31 |
| Utah State @ New Mexico State | 32.6 | 19-16 |
| Fresno State @ Hawaii | 22.6 | 27-18 |
Week 6 Standings
| Conference | Team | Abs Record | Exp Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Atlantic Coast | Georgia Tech | 5 - 1 | 5 - 1 |
| Atlantic Coast | Virginia Tech | 5 - 1 | 5 - 1 |
| Atlantic Coast | Florida State | 6 - 0 | 4 - 2 |
| Atlantic Coast | North Carolina State | 5 - 1 | 4 - 2 |
| Atlantic Coast | North Carolina | 5 - 1 | 4 - 2 |
| Atlantic Coast | Clemson | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 |
| Atlantic Coast | Duke | 3 - 3 | 3 - 3 |
| Atlantic Coast | Maryland | 3 - 3 | 3 - 3 |
| Atlantic Coast | Wake Forest | 2 - 4 | 3 - 3 |
| Atlantic Coast | Virginia | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 |
| Atlantic Coast | Miami (FL) | 1 - 4 | 2 - 3 |
| Atlantic Coast | Boston College | 2 - 4 | 2 - 4 |
| Big 12 | Oklahoma State | 5 - 0 | 5 - 0 |
| Big 12 | Oklahoma | 5 - 0 | 5 - 0 |
| Big 12 | Texas | 5 - 0 | 5 - 0 |
| Big 12 | Kansas | 5 - 0 | 4 - 1 |
| Big 12 | Baylor | 4 - 1 | 4 - 1 |
| Big 12 | Texas Tech | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 |
| Big 12 | Missouri | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 |
| Big 12 | Nebraska | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 |
| Big 12 | Kansas State | 3 - 3 | 3 - 3 |
| Big 12 | Colorado | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 |
| Big 12 | Iowa State | 2 - 4 | 2 - 4 |
| Big 12 | Texas A&M | 0 - 5 | 1 - 4 |
| Big East | West Virginia | 5 - 0 | 5 - 0 |
| Big East | Pittsburgh | 6 - 0 | 5 - 1 |
| Big East | Rutgers | 5 - 0 | 4 - 1 |
| Big East | South Florida | 4 - 1 | 4 - 1 |
| Big East | Cincinnati | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 |
| Big East | Connecticut | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 |
| Big East | Louisville | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 |
| Big East | Syracuse | 1 - 5 | 1 - 5 |
| Big Ten | Penn State | 6 - 0 | 5 - 1 |
| Big Ten | Iowa | 5 - 1 | 5 - 1 |
| Big Ten | Northwestern | 5 - 1 | 5 - 1 |
| Big Ten | Ohio State | 5 - 1 | 5 - 1 |
| Big Ten | Wisconsin | 5 - 1 | 4 - 2 |
| Big Ten | Illinois | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 |
| Big Ten | Michigan State | 3 - 3 | 3 - 3 |
| Big Ten | Michigan | 2 - 4 | 3 - 3 |
| Big Ten | Minnesota | 3 - 3 | 3 - 3 |
| Big Ten | Purdue | 2 - 4 | 2 - 4 |
| Big Ten | Indiana | 1 - 5 | 2 - 4 |
| Conference USA | Southern Miss | 5 - 1 | 5 - 1 |
| Conference USA | Houston | 4 - 1 | 4 - 1 |
| Conference USA | Tulsa | 4 - 1 | 4 - 1 |
| Conference USA | East Carolina | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 |
| Conference USA | Marshall | 3 - 3 | 3 - 3 |
| Conference USA | Memphis | 2 - 4 | 3 - 3 |
| Conference USA | Southern Methodist | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 |
| Conference USA | UAB | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 |
| Conference USA | Tulane | 1 - 4 | 2 - 3 |
| Conference USA | UCF | 1 - 4 | 2 - 3 |
| Conference USA | Rice | 1 - 5 | 2 - 4 |
| Conference USA | UTEP | 3 - 3 | 2 - 4 |
| Independents (FBS) | Notre Dame | 5 - 0 | 4 - 1 |
| Independents (FBS) | Navy | 3 - 3 | 3 - 3 |
| Independents (FBS) | Army | 2 - 4 | 2 - 4 |
| Independents (FBS) | Western Kentucky | 0 - 5 | 1 - 4 |
| Mid-American | Western Michigan | 6 - 0 | 5 - 1 |
| Mid-American | Ball State | 6 - 0 | 4 - 2 |
| Mid-American | Central Michigan | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 |
| Mid-American | Kent State | 3 - 3 | 3 - 3 |
| Mid-American | Ohio | 3 - 3 | 3 - 3 |
| Mid-American | Akron | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 |
| Mid-American | Northern Illinois | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 |
| Mid-American | Temple | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 |
| Mid-American | Bowling Green | 3 - 3 | 2 - 4 |
| Mid-American | Buffalo | 3 - 3 | 2 - 4 |
| Mid-American | Toledo | 0 - 6 | 2 - 4 |
| Mid-American | Eastern Michigan | 0 - 5 | 1 - 4 |
| Mid-American | Miami (OH) | 0 - 6 | 0 - 6 |
| Mountain West | TCU | 5 - 0 | 4 - 1 |
| Mountain West | Utah | 4 - 1 | 4 - 1 |
| Mountain West | Air Force | 5 - 1 | 4 - 2 |
| Mountain West | Brigham Young | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 |
| Mountain West | San Diego State | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 |
| Mountain West | Colorado State | 3 - 3 | 3 - 3 |
| Mountain West | UNLV | 3 - 3 | 3 - 3 |
| Mountain West | New Mexico | 2 - 4 | 2 - 4 |
| Mountain West | Wyoming | 2 - 4 | 2 - 4 |
| Pacific-10 | USC | 5 - 0 | 5 - 0 |
| Pacific-10 | Oregon State | 6 - 0 | 5 - 1 |
| Pacific-10 | California | 4 - 1 | 4 - 1 |
| Pacific-10 | Oregon | 5 - 1 | 4 - 2 |
| Pacific-10 | Stanford | 5 - 1 | 4 - 2 |
| Pacific-10 | Arizona State | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 |
| Pacific-10 | Arizona | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 |
| Pacific-10 | UCLA | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 |
| Pacific-10 | Washington | 1 - 5 | 1 - 5 |
| Pacific-10 | Washington State | 0 - 6 | 1 - 5 |
| Southeastern | Florida | 5 - 0 | 5 - 0 |
| Southeastern | Alabama | 6 - 0 | 5 - 1 |
| Southeastern | LSU | 5 - 1 | 5 - 1 |
| Southeastern | Mississippi | 4 - 1 | 4 - 1 |
| Southeastern | Georgia | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 |
| Southeastern | Tennessee | 4 - 2 | 4 - 2 |
| Southeastern | Arkansas | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 |
| Southeastern | South Carolina | 3 - 3 | 3 - 3 |
| Southeastern | Vanderbilt | 4 - 2 | 3 - 3 |
| Southeastern | Auburn | 1 - 5 | 2 - 4 |
| Southeastern | Mississippi State | 1 - 5 | 2 - 4 |
| Southeastern | Kentucky | 1 - 4 | 1 - 4 |
| Sun Belt | Florida International | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 |
| Sun Belt | Troy | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 |
| Sun Belt | Middle Tennessee | 3 - 3 | 3 - 3 |
| Sun Belt | Arkansas State | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |
| Sun Belt | Florida Atlantic | 2 - 2 | 2 - 2 |
| Sun Belt | Louisiana-Lafayette | 3 - 2 | 2 - 3 |
| Sun Belt | Louisiana-Monroe | 1 - 4 | 1 - 4 |
| Sun Belt | North Texas | 0 - 6 | 1 - 5 |
| Western Athletic | Boise State | 4 - 1 | 4 - 1 |
| Western Athletic | Louisiana Tech | 3 - 2 | 3 - 2 |
| Western Athletic | Nevada | 4 - 1 | 3 - 2 |
| Western Athletic | New Mexico State | 2 - 4 | 3 - 3 |
| Western Athletic | Fresno State | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 |
| Western Athletic | Hawaii | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 |
| Western Athletic | Utah State | 3 - 2 | 2 - 3 |
| Western Athletic | San Jose State | 2 - 3 | 2 - 3 |
| Western Athletic | Idaho | 0 - 6 | 1 - 5 |
A schedule of our 2009 College Football Preview, including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.
Ever wanted to be in be in charge of your own college football program? With Gridiron Dynasty from WhatIfSports.com, you have a chance to do just that. From recruiting and running practice to gameplanning and scheduling - it is all under your control. Start at DIII and try to work your way up to winning the DI championship at your favorite school.
Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!
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