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College Football Power Rankings

Week 13 Rankings
By Eric Schmoldt and Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
November 23rd, 2009

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WhatIfSports.com utilizes its college football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all teams. We simulated every possible DI FBS match-up one hundred times, and used the winning percentages from 700,000+ games to evaluate every team. All 120 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Simulations are based on updated, strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats, so significant week-to-week changes could occur.

Most Notable Storyline:
Does the Mountain West Conference deserve to be a Bowl Championship Series automatic-qualifying conference?

It's becoming a yearly question and seemingly every year the league's argument becomes more viable and it's a debate worth looking at again as we reach the penultimate week of the college football season.

The MWC still ranks well below the six BCS qualifiers in our weekly conference power rankings, but only the Pac-10 - with four - has more teams ranked in the top 20 of this week's team power rankings than the Mountain West, with three.

TCU obviously holds down the highest spot. And even though the Horned Frogs drop a spot this week, they still sit just behind Texas and win nearly 97% of their 100 games against every other FBS school.

The Utah Utes, who have lost only to TCU and Oregon, jump two spots this week after knocking off San Diego State. Utah is beating 81.5% of all FBS opponents.

And BYU, which plummeted last week after narrowly escaping then-winless New Mexico, saw its stock rise after the Cougars scored a big victory over Air Force and the Lobos got their first win of the season. BYU jumps 11 spots to 16th and is also winning four out of every five games against FBS schools.

But the argument comes in whether, top to bottom, the MWC stacks up with the nation's elite conferences. Right now, that doesn't seem to be the case. In fact, its bottom five teams rank 87th or worse out of 120 teams. And while there are three league teams in the top 20, there are four in the bottom 20.

Wyoming lost to TCU this week but that didnít have an effect on its ranking as the Cowboys sit 87th. San Diego State was knocked out of bowl contention but actually moved up despite its loss, coming in at #101. UNLV, which fired coach Mike Sanford last week but will see him coach the Rebels' final game this week, was idle and fell three spots to 107. Colorado State lost its eighth consecutive game and drops nine more spots to 109. And New Mexico, which beat the Rams for its first victory of the year, jumps four spots to 112.

Biggest Gains:
UCF backed up its victory over Houston two weeks ago, proving it was no fluke by dismantling Tulane 49-0 this time around. The shutout is good enough to move the Knights up 18 spots right to the middle of the pack in the FBS. UCF, which has won four of its last five, is now winning 49% of its games will all other FBS teams.

Volatile South Florida and North Carolina each picked up wins and each move up 16 spots this week. Penn State bounces back, rebounding 13 spots and the Texas Tech, which crushed Oklahoma, moves up 14.

Biggest Losses:
It was a topsy-turvy week for teams called Knights. Just when Rutgers once again started looking legitimate - winning seven of eight games - the Scarlet Knights were handed their ugliest loss of the season at Syracuse. It cost them much of the progress they had made in the power rankings as they freefall 24 spots to 41st. They are now winning just 64.3% of their games.

Oklahoma State continued to prove the theory winning doesn't mean you're moving up. The Cowboys played without standout quarterback Zac Robinson and narrowly escaped hapless Colorado and fall 14 spots. Wisconsin, which seemed destined for another 10-win season, might not get there after a loss to Northwestern. The Badgers dip 14 spots as well. And Stanford, which looked like the hottest team in the country, now becomes one of the coldest in terms of power ranking slides, slipping 12 spots.

Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
1.Florida Gators-98.351.47.9
2.Texas Longhorns+197.246.97.6
3.TCU Horned Frogs-196.950.59.5
4.Alabama Crimson Tide-96.947.16.9
5.Cincinnati Bearcats-92.948.914.9
6.Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets+191.451.219.1
7.Boise State Broncos-190.044.914.4
8.Ohio State Buckeyes+288.235.910.9
9.Pittsburgh Panthers-87.641.715.0
10.Penn State Nittany Lions+1387.537.313.7
11.Virginia Tech Hokies+185.439.215.3
12.Oregon Ducks-185.438.613.7
13.Clemson Tigers+682.034.914.8
14.Utah Utes+281.533.916.4
15.Texas Tech Red Raiders+1480.934.115.7
16.Brigham Young Cougars+1180.936.018.2
17.Oregon State Beavers-480.834.815.4
18.Mississippi Rebels+679.135.217.7
19.Arizona Wildcats+278.233.417.1
20.Stanford Cardinal-1277.939.421.4
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
21.California Golden Bears+1077.436.017.9
22.USC Trojans-77.336.018.6
23.Iowa Hawkeyes-377.327.512.9
24.Nebraska Cornhuskers+277.129.013.3
25.West Virginia Mountaineers-76.234.217.1
26.Houston Cougars+275.339.525.2
27.LSU Tigers-975.128.314.6
28.Wisconsin Badgers-1474.832.518.2
29.Oklahoma State Cowboys-1474.430.317.0
30.Nevada Wolf Pack+372.835.521.7
31.South Florida Bulls+1672.734.721.8
32.North Carolina Tar Heels+1669.821.913.7
33.Connecticut Huskies+668.430.318.9
34.Temple Owls+868.130.119.0
35.Air Force Falcons-567.827.518.4
36.Missouri Tigers+267.627.518.5
37.Southern Miss Golden Eagles+765.828.920.9
38.Arkansas Razorbacks-365.635.624.8
39.Miami (FL) Hurricanes-265.428.219.4
40.Auburn Tigers-464.531.722.1
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
41.Rutgers Scarlet Knights-2464.325.018.7
42.Central Michigan Chippewas+1362.727.820.5
43.Georgia Bulldogs-1161.529.422.5
44.South Carolina Gamecocks-460.823.318.3
45.Oklahoma Sooners-1159.923.619.4
46.Florida State Seminoles+459.832.827.9
47.Michigan State Spartans-659.529.423.7
48.Tennessee Volunteers-259.124.919.3
49.Notre Dame Fighting Irish-658.329.025.2
50.Fresno State Bulldogs-555.932.428.8
51.Troy Trojans+255.827.824.9
52.Idaho Vandals-55.030.527.7
53.Purdue Boilermakers+654.023.922.0
54.Boston College Eagles-353.920.318.8
55.Texas A&M Aggies+952.524.423.7
56.Kansas State Wildcats-51.923.522.5
57.East Carolina Pirates+1351.522.421.3
58.Northwestern Wildcats+1051.421.322.2
59.Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks-251.122.722.7
60.Kentucky Wildcats+1249.122.223.0
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
61.UCF Knights+1849.018.820.2
62.Wake Forest Demon Deacons-48.122.924.7
63.Hawaii Warriors-547.526.028.0
64.Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders+1747.521.123.3
65.Northern Illinois Huskies-1646.221.924.4
66.Navy Midshipmen-545.321.124.5
67.Buffalo Bulls+1045.021.724.6
68.Illinois Fighting Illini-243.921.525.6
69.Utah State Aggies-1543.323.428.6
70.Arizona State Sun Devils+343.216.821.5
71.UAB Blazers-1143.124.927.6
72.North Carolina State Wolfpack-943.019.625.1
73.UCLA Bruins+943.017.722.7
74.Ohio Bobcats+243.017.121.7
75.Southern Methodist Mustangs-1040.720.325.4
76.Mississippi State Bulldogs-240.321.026.7
77.Syracuse Orange+739.016.322.9
78.Louisiana Tech Bulldogs+1237.818.026.5
79.Marshall Thundering Herd+1537.317.325.5
80.Baylor Bears-1337.217.325.2
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
81.Michigan Wolverines-1237.118.826.8
82.Kansas Jayhawks-436.318.625.8
83.Toledo Rockets+234.620.329.2
84.Louisville Cardinals+934.317.326.7
85.UTEP Miners+432.320.030.6
86.Washington Huskies+231.518.328.8
87.Wyoming Cowboys-30.915.426.7
88.Colorado Buffaloes+1530.715.225.8
89.Minnesota Golden Gophers-630.213.024.5
90.Tulsa Golden Hurricane-1928.017.730.5
91.Army Black Knights+827.413.726.7
92.Kent State Golden Flashes-627.012.726.2
93.Duke Blue Devils+226.614.027.2
94.Indiana Hoosiers-1925.815.128.8
95.Arkansas State Red Wolves-325.614.028.8
96.Iowa State Cyclones-525.315.930.6
97.Western Michigan Broncos-123.214.530.9
98.Florida Atlantic Owls-1822.918.435.2
99.Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns-121.813.230.2
100.Maryland Terrapins+920.812.229.2
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
101.San Diego State Aztecs+620.710.928.7
102.Vanderbilt Commodores-520.311.229.6
103.North Texas Mean Green-219.514.735.2
104.Virginia Cavaliers+419.37.826.0
105.Memphis Tigers-18.113.133.2
106.Ball State Cardinals-417.912.432.3
107.UNLV Rebels-317.514.535.5
108.Bowling Green Falcons-217.111.331.9
109.Colorado State Rams-916.710.031.7
110.Rice Owls+515.411.335.1
111.Akron Zips+214.410.733.8
112.New Mexico Lobos+411.58.433.4
113.Western Kentucky Hilltoppers-110.010.640.6
114.Tulane Green Wave-48.68.236.5
115.Miami (OH) RedHawks-47.97.236.1
116.Florida International Golden Panthers-26.97.338.3
117.San Jose State Spartans+16.28.241.6
118.New Mexico State Aggies-15.87.740.3
119.Washington State Cougars-5.46.940.2
120.Eastern Michigan Eagles-4.06.642.3

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Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

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