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WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We have simulated every possible matchup in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate every team. All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date as of Monday night of each week.
Most Notable Move:
Leaving points off the scoreboard didn't seem to hurt the Jacksonville Jaguars in the power rankings. As Jack Del Rio might say, it's all about the victory.
Maurice Jones-Drew downed the ball at the one-yard line, keeping the New York Jets from getting the ball back and winning the game on a field goal instead and it helps the Jaguars hop up seven more spots in this week's NFL power rankings.
It's been a topsy-turvy season in Jacksonville, where the Jags will shoot for their first true winning streak this weekend when they host the Bills. At 5-4, they're still very much in the playoff picture and they’ve won back-to-back games twice, but never three games in a row.
After being trounced by Tennessee in the Titans' first victory of the season, the Jaguars dropped all the way to 22nd. A close victory over Kansas City didn’t move them anywhere. But after eeking out another game against the Jets, it was time to move back up.
Jacksonville skips back up to right at the middle line, coming in at 15th this week. They win more than 5% more of the 100 games against every other NFL foe than they did last week and once again are beating more than half of their opponents.
And the Jaguars may only move up. Four of their last seven games come against teams that currently have losing records, including three of their next four. Their toughest game in the next month comes against Houston, currently 5-4.
Jacksonville nearly took home top honors in terms of those moving up in the rankings. Instead, the honor went to the Green Bay Packers, which shook off back-to-back losses - one to their former Hall of Fame quarterback and one to winless Tampa Bay - to hold Dallas to just one touchdown. Green Bay jumps from 19th all the way back up to #11, beating NFL opponents 58.8% of the time.
Honorable mention to the Cincinnati Bengals, who can no longer be considered a surprise. After beating Pittsburgh, Cincinnati moves up four more spots and is now a top-three team in the NFL.
The wait will continue for the Atlanta Falcons to take down a top-tier team. They're 5-4 but haven't beaten a team that currently has a winning record and failed to sweep Carolina last weekend. Atlanta once seemed like a playoff team, but they're now on the outside looking in, especially in our power rankings. Their third loss in four games drops them nine spots to #22, where they are beating just 45.4% of the time.
Dishonorable mention to the Philadelphia Eagles. Like Atlanta, the Eagles are still in the playoff race thanks to the jumbled mess in the NFC East, but Philly lost its second consecutive game and drops eight spots to #16, and is now winning barely winning half of their simulated games.
Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)
|1.||New Orleans Saints||-||79.9||33.0||21.8|
|5.||New England Patriots||-1||70.3||28.3||20.1|
|7.||San Diego Chargers||+2||62.1||25.7||20.9|
|11.||Green Bay Packers||+8||58.8||25.0||21.8|
|13.||San Francisco 49ers||+3||54.6||22.7||20.8|
|18.||New York Jets||-1||50.1||23.4||23.4|
|20.||New York Giants||+1||45.7||23.9||24.9|
|24.||St. Louis Rams||+2||42.3||22.5||25.6|
|27.||Tampa Bay Buccaneers||+1||31.2||18.5||25.3|
|30.||Kansas City Chiefs||-1||23.5||17.7||27.3|
Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!