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College Football Power Rankings

Week 10 Rankings
By Eric Schmoldt and Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
November 2nd, 2009

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WhatIfSports.com utilizes its college football simulation technology to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all teams. We simulated every possible DI FBS match-up one hundred times, and used the winning percentages from 700,000+ games to evaluate every team. All 120 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Simulations are based on updated, strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats, so significant week-to-week changes could occur.

Most Notable Storyline:
Week Nine's two biggest games both turned into routs this past weekend. How did that affect the way the teams involved look in the latest power rankings?

They certainly move up, but perhaps none of them as far as you might have expected.

There may not have been a more stunning game this season than when Oregon thoroughly punished USC on Saturday, 47-20.

The Ducks, now arguably the hottest team in the land, move up three spots to #5 and are now beating all FBS opponents more than 94% of the time in 100 simulations against each team. Most notably, Oregon jumps Boise State, the only team that has beaten the Ducks this season. The USC Trojans drop, but just seven spots to #11, where they are beating their opponents 87.1% of the time.

And while the winner was perhaps less surprising, the score in Texas and Oklahoma State's showdown was certainly underwhelming considering the circumstances.

As a result of Texas' 41-14 thrashing, the Longhorns move up three spots and are now the second-ranked team in the country. Texas is easily the highest-scoring team in the simulations, scoring more than 51 points per game and are only 0.2 percentage points behind top-ranked Florida in terms of team winning percentage against all FBS teams. The Cowboys tumble, but only dip 11 spots and are still in the top 25. With a 76.8% winning percentage, they fall to #21.

Biggest Gains:
With a loss to Houston under its belt, a Conference USA championship might not be in the cards for SMU, but coach June Jones certainly has the Mustangs - still trying to recover from the NCAA's "Death Penalty" sentence more than 20 years ago - on the right track. A two-touchdown victory at Tulsa this weekend moves SMU to 3-1 in league play and 4-4 overall and the Mustangs jump 26 spots this week, the most of any team. SMU now ranks 76th in the country, beating FBS opponents nearly 38% of the time.

Minnesota is a close second to SMU, gaining 23 spots and moving up to #69 with a victory over Michigan State. South Florida, which seemed to go into freefall when its undefeated start was followed by two consecutive losses, salvaged ground with a victory over West Virginia on Friday, regaining 19 spots from its previous drop and moving back into the top 25. North Carolina, which made a statement on Thursday by taking down Virginia Tech, jumps 13 spots to 59th.

Biggest Losses:
Central Michigan, with just one loss, had flown under the radar this season but had a chance to make a stand against a BCS foe in Boston College. Instead, a 31-10 loss will likely relegate the Chippewas back to also-ran status for the remainder of this season. Central Michigan also has the dubious honor this week of the biggest drop in the rankings, falling 24 spots as a result of that loss to 58th in the country.

Tulsa's home loss to SMU costs it 17 spots in the rankings, while Purdue - which looked like a completely different team against Wisconsin Saturday than it did in a victory over Ohio State - loses 15 spots to 64th. Other notable BCS teams taking falls included Ole Miss, which drops 14 spots, and West Virginia which falls 13.


Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage (everyone plays everyone 100 times)

 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
1.Florida Gators-97.745.66.5
2.Texas Longhorns+397.551.67.6
3.TCU Horned Frogs-95.646.410.0
4.Alabama Crimson Tide-295.143.08.0
5.Oregon Ducks+394.644.58.4
6.Cincinnati Bearcats-93.646.111.8
7.Boise State Broncos-92.742.411.7
8.Iowa Hawkeyes+190.839.010.4
9.Oklahoma Sooners+290.137.411.6
10.Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets+489.447.620.0
11.USC Trojans-787.840.215.1
12.Penn State Nittany Lions-86.134.713.1
13.Pittsburgh Panthers+485.838.815.6
14.LSU Tigers-185.432.012.1
15.Arizona Wildcats+482.436.416.5
16.Houston Cougars-82.043.222.8
17.Clemson Tigers+381.229.512.1
18.Ohio State Buckeyes-79.431.813.7
19.Utah Utes+278.832.715.4
20.Notre Dame Fighting Irish+277.438.421.5
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
21.Oklahoma State Cowboys-1176.833.218.4
22.California Golden Bears+576.735.319.6
23.Virginia Tech Hokies-75.433.419.7
24.South Florida Bulls+1975.033.219.8
25.Nevada Wolf Pack-173.435.422.0
26.Brigham Young Cougars+271.433.021.7
27.Stanford Cardinal+871.235.122.6
28.West Virginia Mountaineers-1370.831.218.3
29.Miami (FL) Hurricanes+469.629.419.3
30.Missouri Tigers+1269.325.817.1
31.Tennessee Volunteers-269.025.114.8
32.Fresno State Bulldogs-668.335.023.5
33.Oregon State Beavers-168.228.820.3
34.Rutgers Scarlet Knights+1166.627.918.4
35.Texas Tech Red Raiders+666.626.318.7
36.Nebraska Cornhuskers+366.125.016.8
37.Arkansas Razorbacks-65.835.024.6
38.Wisconsin Badgers+964.727.119.3
39.Mississippi Rebels-1463.226.919.9
40.Kansas Jayhawks+1062.326.820.4
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
41.Connecticut Huskies-1162.125.418.9
42.Auburn Tigers+1162.028.821.5
43.South Carolina Gamecocks-561.224.018.0
44.Florida State Seminoles+261.031.125.4
45.Idaho Vandals-160.130.425.2
46.Boston College Eagles+1160.022.718.6
47.Southern Miss Golden Eagles+959.526.121.3
48.Texas A&M Aggies+359.327.121.9
49.Michigan State Spartans-1359.225.720.3
50.Kansas State Wildcats-1058.624.120.1
51.Air Force Falcons-2058.222.619.0
52.Temple Owls+257.923.418.5
53.Troy Trojans+556.825.922.5
54.Arizona State Sun Devils+655.320.018.8
55.Wake Forest Demon Deacons+1054.223.621.7
56.Georgia Bulldogs-452.022.322.4
57.Utah State Aggies-251.525.324.8
58.Central Michigan Chippewas-2451.423.322.2
59.North Carolina Tar Heels+1351.017.517.6
60.Navy Midshipmen-1250.521.622.8
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
61.Mississippi State Bulldogs+946.122.124.0
62.Louisiana-Monroe Warhawks-345.620.422.7
63.Northern Illinois Huskies+145.221.124.1
64.Purdue Boilermakers-1544.819.722.9
65.East Carolina Pirates+1444.119.022.4
66.Iowa State Cyclones-544.121.525.6
67.UCLA Bruins+742.617.722.3
68.Virginia Cavaliers-542.213.218.5
69.Minnesota Golden Gophers+2341.320.325.0
70.Michigan Wolverines-840.920.626.1
71.Indiana Hoosiers+539.918.825.2
72.Arkansas State Red Wolves-139.618.224.4
73.North Carolina State Wolfpack+538.818.324.5
74.Kentucky Wildcats-738.118.525.1
75.Wyoming Cowboys+238.015.122.2
76.Southern Methodist Mustangs+2637.916.824.8
77.Louisiana Tech Bulldogs+1137.818.926.4
78.Illinois Fighting Illini+1737.119.928.4
79.Duke Blue Devils+136.416.825.1
80.Buffalo Bulls-536.318.526.5
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
81.Toledo Rockets-836.319.828.3
82.Ohio Bobcats-1635.914.922.6
83.Baylor Bears-1535.816.625.1
84.UAB Blazers+933.220.529.9
85.Washington Huskies-32.918.529.0
86.Tulsa Golden Hurricane-1732.220.830.5
87.Hawaii Warriors+930.919.931.4
88.Louisville Cardinals+1230.517.428.5
89.Colorado Buffaloes-830.414.725.2
90.Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders+1130.015.827.7
91.Northwestern Wildcats-529.915.126.4
92.Marshall Thundering Herd-229.616.127.6
93.UCF Knights-629.613.425.4
94.Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns-528.515.328.8
95.Kent State Golden Flashes+228.312.125.3
96.San Diego State Aztecs+328.212.623.9
97.Syracuse Orange-328.213.426.3
98.Western Michigan Broncos-1628.015.129.3
99.UTEP Miners-126.717.831.6
100.Colorado State Rams+626.314.827.4
 TeamChangeWin PctPS/GPA/G
101.Florida Atlantic Owls-1726.119.032.4
102.North Texas Mean Green-1125.817.532.6
103.Maryland Terrapins-24.611.927.1
104.Vanderbilt Commodores-2124.412.128.2
105.Army Black Knights-22.211.227.7
106.Ball State Cardinals+421.813.231.6
107.Memphis Tigers-318.412.633.1
108.Tulane Green Wave+315.010.833.8
109.Bowling Green Falcons-213.210.533.8
110.UNLV Rebels-112.511.036.8
111.Akron Zips-310.08.733.8
112.Western Kentucky Hilltoppers-9.710.240.1
113.Florida International Golden Panthers+38.28.136.7
114.New Mexico Lobos-17.96.733.8
115.Miami (OH) RedHawks-17.97.135.5
116.Washington State Cougars-16.07.638.2
117.Rice Owls+25.87.638.4
118.New Mexico State Aggies-5.86.838.1
119.Eastern Michigan Eagles+15.26.941.2
120.San Jose State Spartans-35.07.439.0

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Eric Schmoldt is a writer and Paul Bessire is the Product Manager of Content and Quantitative Analysis for WhatIfSports.com, a division of FOX Sports Interactive specializing in NCAA Matchup analysis and college football sim games. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul and Eric can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

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