Week 17 NFL Predictions

Playoff Odds (plus boxscores from every Week 17 game)
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
December 23rd, 2008

Each Tuesday morning during the season, we will preview every NFL game of the upcoming week. All of our NFL content, including our most recent power rankings and weekly fantasy projections, is located here. The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.

Playoff Odds
According to the simulations, these are the playoff odds for each team that is still alive:

AFC Playoff Odds
Tennessee, Pittsburgh and Indianapolis: 100%
Baltimore: 91.6%
San Diego: 87.5%
New England: 48.4% (45.1% AFC East, 3.3% WC)
Miami: 40.3%
NYJ: 19.7% (14.7% AFC East, 5.0% WC)
Denver: 12.5%

NFC Playoff Odds
NYG, Arizona, Carolina (56.0% NFC South) and Atlanta (44.0% NFC South): 100%
Minnesota: 73.4%
Dallas: 48.6%
Tampa Bay: 34.8%
Chicago: 31.0% (26.6% NFC North, 4.4% Wild Card)
Philadelphia: 13.2%

Playoff Picture
Using the outcomes below, the NFL playoff matchups and seeding look like this:

AFC Wild Card Games
#6 Baltimore (11-5) @ #3 New England (11-5)
#5 Indianapolis (11-5) @ #4 San Diego (8-8)
#1 Tennessee (14-2) and #2 Pittsburgh (12-4) receive byes

Eliminated: New York Jets (10-6), Miami (10-6), Houston (8-8), Denver (8-8), Buffalo (7-9), Jacksonville (5-11), Oakland (4-12), Cleveland (4-12), Cincinnati (3-12-1) and Kansas City (3-13).

NFC Wild Card Games
#6 Tampa Bay (10-6) @ #3 Minnesota (9-7)
#5 Carolina (11-5) @ #4 Arizona (8-8)
#1 New York Giants (13-3) and #2 Atlanta (11-5) receive byes

Eliminated: Philadelphia (9-6-1), Washington (9-7), New Orleans (9-7), Dallas (9-7), Chicago (9-7), Green Bay (6-10), San Francisco (6-10), Seattle (5-11), St. Louis (2-14) and Detroit (0-16), which has a 73.7% chance of ending the season winless.

Click on the Boxscores below to see detailed team and player stat projections for every game.

Week 17 Scores for Every NFL Game

MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Jacksonville @ Baltimore88.99-25Boxscore
Cleveland @ Pittsburgh87.79-24Boxscore
Denver @ San Diego87.515-30Boxscore
St. Louis @ Atlanta82.517-31Boxscore
Detroit @ Green Bay73.721-32Boxscore
Oakland @ Tampa Bay67.717-24Boxscore
Miami @ New York59.719-23Boxscore
Carolina @ New Orleans53.325-29Boxscore
Chicago @ Houston53.218-20Boxscore
Dallas @ Philadelphia51.418-20Boxscore
Kansas City @ Cincinnati49.517-19Boxscore
New York @ Minnesota43.221-21Boxscore
Tennessee @ Indianapolis33.918-14Boxscore
Seattle @ Arizona29.524-19Boxscore
Washington @ San Francisco25.719-14Boxscore
New England @ Buffalo24.627-20Boxscore

Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!

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