WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation engine to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We simulated every possible match-up in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate all every team. All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Simulations are based on strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats and updated depth charts so significant week-to-week changes could occur.
Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PF/G | PA/G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Tennessee Titans | 0 | 96.0% | 33.4 | 6.6 |
| 2. | Pittsburgh Steelers | 0 | 91.7% | 32.5 | 7.8 |
| 3. | Buffalo Bills | 0 | 86.0% | 27.9 | 14.8 |
| 4. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +2 | 72.5% | 29.3 | 16.9 |
| 5. | Washington Redskins | +3 | 72.3% | 29.0 | 16.5 |
| 6. | New York Giants | -2 | 69.9% | 28.6 | 19.2 |
| 7. | Atlanta Falcons | +2 | 67.4% | 26.9 | 22.9 |
| 8. | Arizona Cardinals | -3 | 66.2% | 28.6 | 21.2 |
| 9. | Carolina Panthers | +1 | 66.0% | 25.5 | 16.1 |
| 10. | Philadelphia Eagles | +2 | 64.9% | 27.6 | 20.0 |
| 11. | Chicago Bears | 0 | 60.7% | 23.3 | 22.7 |
| 12. | New York Jets | +1 | 52.9% | 25.8 | 24.0 |
| 13. | Indianapolis Colts | +2 | 50.4% | 24.1 | 26.0 |
| 14. | San Diego Chargers | +6 | 50.1% | 27.5 | 25.3 |
| 15. | Green Bay Packers | +7 | 49.7% | 23.8 | 26.0 |
| 16. | New Orleans Saints | -2 | 48.6% | 24.9 | 25.7 |
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PF/G | PA/G | |
| 17. | New England Patriots | +4 | 47.8% | 23.9 | 24.8 |
| 18. | Dallas Cowboys | -11 | 47.8% | 24.4 | 27.9 |
| 19. | Miami Dolphins | -2 | 47.2% | 24.7 | 26.7 |
| 20. | Minnesota Vikings | -1 | 46.6% | 22.4 | 24.2 |
| 21. | Baltimore Ravens | +2 | 44.1% | 22.4 | 21.2 |
| 22. | Denver Broncos | -6 | 44.0% | 23.7 | 29.1 |
| 23. | Jacksonville Jaguars | +2 | 38.9% | 21.9 | 22.7 |
| 24. | Oakland Raiders | 0 | 36.6% | 20.9 | 27.5 |
| 25. | Cleveland Browns | -7 | 34.7% | 20.4 | 30.2 |
| 26. | St. Louis Rams | +3 | 34.3% | 21.0 | 28.6 |
| 27. | Houston Texans | 0 | 28.4% | 24.5 | 29.2 |
| 28. | San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 24.7% | 21.4 | 30.6 |
| 29. | Kansas City Chiefs | -3 | 19.6% | 18.9 | 35.4 |
| 30. | Seattle Seahawks | 0 | 16.0% | 17.8 | 32.0 |
| 31. | Cincinnati Bengals | 0 | 13.9% | 14.6 | 36.3 |
| 32. | Detroit Lions | 0 | 9.9% | 16.7 | 40.2 |
Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!
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