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The inputs to the 10,001 simulations of each upcoming game are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings and then makes modifications for injuries and depth at each position.
Game of the Week: #11 Minnesota 17 @ #5 Tennessee 25
Last week we featured two teams from the same state that were very different. This week, we are featuring two teams from very different places that are eerily similar. The Titans and Vikings both focus on running the ball and stopping the run. Each has a stellar interior offensive and defensive line. And they are led by veteran quarterbacks who started the year as backups. While Adrian Peterson of the Vikings will be the best player on the field, giving Minnesota the slight edge in the running game, watch for this game to be decided through the air. Whichever team makes more big plays in the passing game (one will probably be enough) should have the edge. The sim likes Tennessee to do so more often than Minnesota, but the big plays may not come from Kerry Collins. Cortland Finnegan, Michael Griffin and the rest of the Titans' secondary have tormented quarterbacks thus far. Sunday should be no different for Gus Frerotte. We like the Titans to emerge victorious at home 68.7% of the time and by an average score of 25-17 (boxscore).
Click on the Boxscores below to see detailed team and player stat projections for every game.
Week 4 Scores for Every NFL Game
|Matchup||Home Win%||Avg Score||Houston @ Jacksonville||89.1||10-25||Boxscore||Washington @ Dallas||86.6||14-27||Boxscore||Atlanta @ Carolina||86.1||12-27||Boxscore||Baltimore @ Pittsburgh||72.6||11-21||Boxscore||Minnesota @ Tennessee||68.7||17-25||Boxscore||Arizona @ New York Jets||62.7||24-27||Boxscore||Cleveland @ Cincinnati||56.2||16-19||Boxscore||San Francisco @ New Orleans||52.2||25.8-26.1||Boxscore||Green Bay @ Tampa Bay||48.3||26-20||Boxscore||San Diego @ Oakland||30.8||28-20||Boxscore||Philadelphia @ Chicago||27.4||23-13||Boxscore||Buffalo @ St. Louis||18.4||30-15||Boxscore||Denver @ Kansas City||15.4||32-18||Boxscore|
Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!