WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation engine to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We simulated every possible match-up in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate all every team. All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Simulations are based on strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats and updated depth charts so significant week-to-week changes could occur.
Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PF/G | PA/G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Dallas Cowboys | 0 | 87.2% | 28.8 | 16.0 |
| 2. | New York Giants | 0 | 73.8% | 25.4 | 16.0 |
| 3. | Philadelphia Eagles | +3 | 70.1% | 26.1 | 17.6 |
| 4. | Green Bay Packers | 0 | 69.8% | 26.1 | 20.9 |
| 5. | Indianapolis Colts | -2 | 69.1% | 25.3 | 19.5 |
| 6. | Pittsburgh Steelers | -1 | 68.5% | 25.2 | 16.8 |
| 7. | Buffalo Bills | 0 | 67.8% | 22.9 | 19.8 |
| 8. | New England Patriots | +1 | 62.1% | 21.0 | 16.6 |
| 9. | Denver Broncos | +9 | 59.8% | 24.6 | 24.0 |
| 10. | Arizona Cardinals | +7 | 59.7% | 25.3 | 20.5 |
| 11. | Tennessee Titans | 0 | 59.4% | 21.2 | 19.2 |
| 12. | Carolina Panthers | -2 | 56.4% | 23.1 | 17.6 |
| 13. | San Diego Chargers | -1 | 55.8% | 26.8 | 22.6 |
| 14. | Cleveland Browns | -1 | 55.5% | 21.7 | 22.2 |
| 15. | Minnesota Vikings | -7 | 54.9% | 20.6 | 19.3 |
| 16. | New York Jets | -1 | 53.0% | 24.6 | 22.7 |
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PF/G | PA/G | |
| 17. | New Orleans Saints | -3 | 50.9% | 22.6 | 22.3 |
| 18. | Chicago Bears | -2 | 49.0% | 19.9 | 22.9 |
| 19. | Washington Redskins | +9 | 48.5% | 22.9 | 20.4 |
| 20. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +2 | 41.4% | 20.3 | 20.8 |
| 21. | San Francisco 49ers | +6 | 40.5% | 21.8 | 23.0 |
| 22. | Seattle Seahawks | -1 | 40.5% | 18.0 | 19.1 |
| 23. | Atlanta Falcons | -3 | 39.0% | 19.0 | 27.1 |
| 24. | Baltimore Ravens | +5 | 35.7% | 18.7 | 20.1 |
| 25. | Detroit Lions | -1 | 33.4% | 19.2 | 27.5 |
| 26. | Jacksonville Jaguars | -7 | 33.2% | 18.3 | 21.0 |
| 27. | Houston Texans | -1 | 32.3% | 20.2 | 22.0 |
| 28. | Oakland Raiders | +2 | 31.8% | 18.0 | 25.9 |
| 29. | Miami Dolphins | -6 | 31.3% | 18.5 | 26.0 |
| 30. | St. Louis Rams | +2 | 30.5% | 18.5 | 27.0 |
| 31. | Kansas City Chiefs | -6 | 19.6% | 14.3 | 27.4 |
| 32. | Cincinnati Bengals | -1 | 19.5% | 16.1 | 31.3 |
Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!
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