WhatIfSports.com utilizes its NFL football simulation engine to present the most comprehensive, deterministic and unbiased ranking of all 32 teams. We simulated every possible match-up in the NFL 100 times, and used the winning percentages from those nearly 50,000 games to evaluate all every team. All 32 teams are ranked below with their average points for and against from the simulated games. Simulations are based on strength-of-schedule-adjusted stats and updated depth charts so significant week-to-week changes could occur.
Teams Ranked by Winning Percentage
(everyone plays everyone 100 times)
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PS/G | PA/G | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | New England Patriots | - | 80.3 | 31.8 | 20.3 |
| 2. | Dallas Cowboys | +1 | 74.0 | 29.8 | 20.8 |
| 3. | Indianapolis Colts | -1 | 73.7 | 29.7 | 21.3 |
| 4. | Minnesota Vikings | - | 67.7 | 25.2 | 19.0 |
| 5. | San Diego Chargers | +2 | 66.8 | 26.6 | 21.0 |
| 6. | New York Jets | -1 | 63.1 | 27.8 | 23.3 |
| 7. | Cleveland Browns | +1 | 59.8 | 27.1 | 23.7 |
| 8. | Seattle Seahawks | +4 | 59.5 | 21.6 | 18.4 |
| 9. | Green Bay Packers | +1 | 58.5 | 25.4 | 22.8 |
| 10. | Pittsburgh Steelers | -1 | 57.7 | 25.8 | 23.2 |
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PS/G | PA/G | |
| 11. | New York Giants | -5 | 56.8 | 26.7 | 24.4 |
| 12. | Buffalo Bills | -1 | 56.2 | 24.4 | 22.2 |
| 13. | Jacksonville Jaguars | +1 | 53.9 | 23.5 | 21.9 |
| 14. | Philadelphia Eagles | -1 | 53.8 | 23.3 | 21.9 |
| 15. | Washington Redskins | - | 51.4 | 22.7 | 22.1 |
| 16. | Carolina Panthers | +2 | 50.7 | 23.2 | 23.2 |
| 17. | Arizona Cardinals | -1 | 48.1 | 24.0 | 24.7 |
| 18. | Cincinnati Bengals | +5 | 47.1 | 25.9 | 27.2 |
| 19. | Tennessee Titans | - | 45.9 | 20.8 | 21.9 |
| 20. | New Orleans Saints | -3 | 45.5 | 23.7 | 24.9 |
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PS/G | PA/G | |
| 21. | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | - | 45.4 | 21.5 | 22.9 |
| 22. | San Francisco 49ers | -2 | 43.6 | 23.2 | 25.2 |
| 23. | Houston Texans | +1 | 42.8 | 21.9 | 24.2 |
| 24. | Baltimore Ravens | -2 | 42.0 | 21.8 | 24.4 |
| 25. | Miami Dolphins | - | 39.9 | 23.3 | 26.6 |
| 26. | Chicago Bears | - | 37.9 | 22.3 | 26.4 |
| 27. | Detroit Lions | +1 | 35.0 | 21.2 | 26.6 |
| 28. | St. Louis Rams | -1 | 34.9 | 22.3 | 27.9 |
| 29. | Denver Broncos | - | 33.3 | 21.9 | 27.7 |
| 30. | Oakland Raiders | - | 29.1 | 21.9 | 29.2 |
| Team | Change | Win Pct | PS/G | PA/G | |
| 31. | Atlanta Falcons | - | 26.5 | 19.4 | 28.9 |
| 32. | Kansas City Chiefs | - | 19.0 | 18.3 | 30.0 |
Paul Bessire is the Senior Quantitative Analyst and Content Manager for WhatIfSports.com and a member of the Pro Football Writers of America. With any comments, questions or topic suggestions, Paul can be reached at BtB@whatifsports.com. Thanks!
Facebook
Become a fan of WhatIfSports on Facebook
Twitter
Follow WhatIfSports on Twitter