Week 13 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
August 23rd, 2008

We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 13.

Game of the Week: #24 Michigan 8 (7-5) @ #1 Ohio State 35 (12-0)
This is a bad year for Rich Rodriguez to try to get off to a good start in the nation's biggest college football rivalry. The Wolverines are a top 25 team on talent, yet they have a tough schedule and a lot to learn and change in little time. Ohio State is the most talented team in the country, and it also has the experience and knowledge of the system that Michigan will lack this year. The Buckeyes roll in their final regular season game before the BCS National Championship, winning 95% of the time and by an average score of 35-8.

Week 13 Scores for Every FBS Game

MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Army @ Rutgers958-39
Cal Poly @ Wisconsin953-46
Citadel @ Florida953-52
Duke @ Virginia Tech958-30
Michigan @ Ohio State958-35
Iowa State @ Kansas State9511-38
NC St. @ North Carolina9512-38
Mississippi @ LSU9510-32
E. Michigan @ Temple9511-29
Syracuse @ Notre Dame90.213-32
Tulane @ Tulsa88.523-33
Boston College @ WF86.910-28
Stanford @ California86.916-37
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma85.227-35
UTEP @ Houston83.616-36
Akron @ Ohio83.614-29
Colorado St. @ Wyoming83.613-27
Air Force @ TCU78.717-27
Idaho @ Hawaii75.418-31
Connecticut @ South Florida70.520-34
Marshall @ Rice68.922-31
Ball State @ C. Michigan68.932-33
Oregon State @ Arizona65.616-27
Michigan State @ Penn State5920-29
Buffalo @ Bowling Green5923-31
Brigham Young @ Utah55.723-29
Indiana @ Purdue54.124-30
North Texas @ Mid Tenn54.118-27
Louisiana Tech @ New Mexico State54.120-26
Northern Illinois @ Kent St.50.822-31
Boise State @ Nevada50.833-38
Miami (FL) @ GA Tech47.519-20
Pittsburgh @ Cincinnati44.324-25
Florida State @ Maryland42.628-27
Arkansas @ Mississippi State42.621-19
Iowa @ Minn.4130-28
LA-Laf @ Troy4127-23
Washington @ Washington St.36.128-26
Miami (OH) @ Toledo27.926-19
UNLV @ San Diego State14.831-20
Illinois @ Northwestern11.536-20
Florida Atlantic @ Arkansas St.11.531-20
W. Virginia @ Louisville9.837-34
UCF @ Memphis6.629-14
Tennessee @ Vanderbilt6.636-17
LA-Monroe @ Fla. Int.6.633-14
East Carolina @ UAB535-14
Clemson @ Virginia532-8
Fresno State @ San Jose State533-12

Updated FBS Standings through Week 13

ConferenceTeamAbs RecordExp Record
Atlantic CoastClemson11 - 010 - 1
Atlantic CoastVirginia Tech11 - 09 - 2
Atlantic CoastWF10 - 19 - 2
Atlantic CoastFlorida State8 - 37 - 4
Atlantic CoastMaryland5 - 67 - 4
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina9 - 27 - 4
Atlantic CoastBoston College4 - 75 - 6
Atlantic CoastGA Tech5 - 65 - 6
Atlantic CoastDuke3 - 84 - 6
Atlantic CoastMiami (FL)5 - 64 - 7
Atlantic CoastVirginia2 - 93 - 8
Atlantic CoastNC St.1 - 102 - 9
Big EastW. Virginia10 - 09 - 1
Big EastSouth Florida10 - 18 - 3
Big EastPittsburgh9 - 17 - 3
Big EastCincinnati7 - 47 - 4
Big EastConnecticut7 - 47 - 4
Big EastLouisville6 - 57 - 4
Big EastRutgers4 - 76 - 5
Big EastSyracuse2 - 92 - 9
Big TenOhio State12 - 012 - 0
Big TenIllinois9 - 39 - 3
Big TenWisconsin11 - 19 - 3
Big TenIndiana8 - 47 - 5
Big TenMichigan8 - 47 - 5
Big TenPenn State7 - 57 - 5
Big TenPurdue11 - 17 - 5
Big TenIowa5 - 76 - 6
Big TenMichigan State4 - 86 - 6
Big TenNorthwestern5 - 75 - 7
Big TenMinn.3 - 94 - 8
Big TwelveOklahoma11 - 010 - 1
Big TwelveMissouri11 - 09 - 2
Big TwelveKansas9 - 28 - 3
Big TwelveTexas Tech8 - 38 - 3
Big TwelveTexas9 - 28 - 3
Big TwelveOklahoma State8 - 37 - 4
Big TwelveKansas State7 - 57 - 5
Big TwelveColorado4 - 75 - 6
Big TwelveNebraska5 - 65 - 6
Big TwelveTexas A&M4 - 75 - 6
Big TwelveBaylor2 - 93 - 8
Big TwelveIowa State1 - 112 - 10
Conference USAEast Carolina8 - 38 - 3
Conference USAHouston10 - 18 - 3
Conference USATulsa7 - 48 - 3
Conference USAUCF9 - 28 - 3
Conference USARice8 - 36 - 5
Conference USAS. Miss6 - 55 - 6
Conference USASMU5 - 65 - 6
Conference USAMemphis2 - 94 - 7
Conference USAUTEP3 - 84 - 7
Conference USAMarshall3 - 83 - 8
Conference USATulane2 - 93 - 8
Conference USAUAB1 - 102 - 9
Independents (FBS)Notre Dame7 - 47 - 4
Independents (FBS)Navy4 - 65 - 5
Independents (FBS)Western Kentucky3 - 84 - 7
Independents (FBS)Army1 - 102 - 9
Mid-AmericanBall State9 - 28 - 3
Mid-AmericanC. Michigan8 - 37 - 4
Mid-AmericanMiami (OH)8 - 37 - 4
Mid-AmericanW. Michigan8 - 37 - 4
Mid-AmericanOhio5 - 66 - 5
Mid-AmericanTemple5 - 66 - 5
Mid-AmericanBowling Green5 - 65 - 6
Mid-AmericanBuffalo3 - 85 - 6
Mid-AmericanKent St.5 - 65 - 6
Mid-AmericanNorthern Illinois3 - 84 - 7
Mid-AmericanToledo3 - 84 - 7
Mid-AmericanAkron2 - 93 - 8
Mid-AmericanE. Michigan2 - 93 - 8
Mountain WestBrigham Young11 - 110 - 2
Mountain WestTCU10 - 29 - 3
Mountain WestUtah10 - 29 - 3
Mountain WestAir Force7 - 57 - 5
Mountain WestNew Mexico8 - 47 - 5
Mountain WestWyoming6 - 67 - 5
Mountain WestColorado St.3 - 94 - 8
Mountain WestUNLV3 - 94 - 8
Mountain WestSan Diego State1 - 112 - 10
Pacific-10USC9 - 19 - 1
Pacific-10Arizona St.8 - 27 - 3
Pacific-10Arizona7 - 47 - 4
Pacific-10Oregon7 - 47 - 4
Pacific-10UCLA5 - 56 - 4
Pacific-10California9 - 26 - 5
Pacific-10Oregon State3 - 84 - 7
Pacific-10Washington3 - 84 - 7
Pacific-10Washington St.3 - 94 - 8
Pacific-10Stanford1 - 112 - 10
SoutheasternGeorgia11 - 010 - 1
SoutheasternLSU10 - 110 - 1
SoutheasternFlorida9 - 29 - 2
SoutheasternAlabama8 - 38 - 3
SoutheasternAuburn8 - 37 - 4
SoutheasternTennessee7 - 47 - 4
SoutheasternKentucky7 - 46 - 5
SoutheasternMississippi State4 - 76 - 5
SoutheasternS. Carolina6 - 56 - 5
SoutheasternArkansas5 - 65 - 6
SoutheasternMississippi4 - 75 - 6
SoutheasternVanderbilt0 - 112 - 9
Sun BeltFlorida Atlantic9 - 28 - 3
Sun BeltLA-Monroe8 - 47 - 5
Sun BeltArkansas St.5 - 55 - 5
Sun BeltLA-Laf3 - 84 - 7
Sun BeltMid Tenn4 - 74 - 7
Sun BeltTroy3 - 84 - 7
Sun BeltNorth Texas2 - 93 - 8
Sun BeltFla. Int.0 - 101 - 9
Western AthleticBoise State9 - 29 - 2
Western AthleticFresno State10 - 19 - 2
Western AthleticNevada8 - 38 - 3
Western AthleticHawaii6 - 56 - 5
Western AthleticIdaho5 - 75 - 7
Western AthleticLouisiana Tech4 - 74 - 7
Western AthleticNew Mexico State4 - 74 - 7
Western AthleticSan Jose State3 - 94 - 8
Western AthleticUtah State0 - 111 - 10

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