Week 12 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
August 22nd, 2008

We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 12.

Game of the Week: Notre Dame 30 (6-4) @ Navy (5-5) 23
This may not be a match-up of elite teams, but it is an interesting game (and more people will read this story if we feature it). For now, it appears as though these teams are headed in opposite directions. Notre Dame has a great amount of football talent and appears headed for a bowl in 2008. Navy will still probably make a bowl because of its tie-ins (and that it is better than Army), but the team will not be quite as good this year without Paul Johnson running the show. The Irish try to start another 44-year win streak over Navy by winning 77% of the time and by an average score of 30-23.

Week 12 Scores for Every FBS Game

MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Minn. @ Wisconsin9517-35
Duke @ Clemson958-36
San Jose State @ Nevada9517-33
Washington St. @ Arizona St.91.817-37
Mississippi State @ Alabama91.810-28
New Mexico State @ Fresno State91.819-38
S. Carolina @ Florida88.519-36
Northwestern @ Michigan85.218-36
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky85.28-28
LA-Laf @ Florida Atlantic85.220-38
LA-Monroe @ Mississippi8220-33
Utah State @ Louisiana Tech75.412-27
Boston College @ Florida State73.814-24
Toledo @ W. Michigan73.819-30
Rutgers @ South Florida67.222-34
Indiana @ Penn State63.924-30
Tulsa @ Houston63.929-38
Nebraska @ Kansas State60.726-36
UAB @ Tulane60.718-28
Arizona @ Oregon52.522-30
North Carolina @ Maryland49.229-34
Cincinnati @ Louisville49.235-34
Mid Tenn @ Western Kentucky49.221-20
SMU @ UTEP45.929-28
Ball State @ Miami (OH)42.627-26
California @ Oregon State37.726-20
Texas @ Kansas34.437-34
Purdue @ Iowa29.527-20
Temple @ Kent St.27.923-19
Texas A&M @ Baylor26.233-27
Buffalo @ Akron26.226-18
Oklahoma State @ Colorado24.637-30
Notre Dame @ Navy2330-24
East Carolina @ S. Miss21.331-22
New Mexico @ Colorado St.21.325-17
UCLA @ Washington19.733-25
Brigham Young @ Air Force1836-26
C. Michigan @ Northern Illinois16.435-25
Wyoming @ UNLV9.828-17
Virginia Tech @ Miami (FL)8.224-12
Connecticut @ Syracuse8.233-16
UCF @ Marshall8.231-15
Boise State @ Idaho8.233-18
Ohio State @ Illinois536-12
WF @ NC St.534-8
Georgia @ Auburn533-10
Missouri @ Iowa State536-11
Utah @ San Diego State537-8
USC @ Stanford536-7

Updated FBS Standings through Week 12

ConferenceTeamAbs RecordExp Record
Atlantic CoastClemson10 - 09 - 1
Atlantic CoastWF9 - 19 - 1
Atlantic CoastVirginia Tech10 - 08 - 2
Atlantic CoastMaryland5 - 57 - 3
Atlantic CoastFlorida State7 - 36 - 4
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina8 - 26 - 4
Atlantic CoastBoston College4 - 65 - 5
Atlantic CoastGA Tech5 - 55 - 5
Atlantic CoastDuke3 - 74 - 5
Atlantic CoastMiami (FL)4 - 64 - 6
Atlantic CoastVirginia2 - 83 - 7
Atlantic CoastNC St.1 - 92 - 8
Big EastW. Virginia9 - 08 - 1
Big EastSouth Florida9 - 18 - 2
Big EastLouisville6 - 47 - 3
Big EastPittsburgh8 - 16 - 3
Big EastCincinnati7 - 36 - 4
Big EastConnecticut7 - 36 - 4
Big EastRutgers3 - 75 - 5
Big EastSyracuse2 - 82 - 8
Big TenOhio State11 - 011 - 0
Big TenIllinois8 - 38 - 3
Big TenWisconsin10 - 18 - 3
Big TenIndiana8 - 37 - 4
Big TenMichigan8 - 37 - 4
Big TenPurdue10 - 17 - 4
Big TenPenn State6 - 56 - 5
Big TenIowa4 - 75 - 6
Big TenMichigan State4 - 75 - 6
Big TenMinn.3 - 84 - 7
Big TenNorthwestern5 - 64 - 7
Big TwelveOklahoma10 - 09 - 1
Big TwelveMissouri11 - 09 - 2
Big TwelveTexas Tech8 - 28 - 2
Big TwelveKansas9 - 28 - 3
Big TwelveTexas9 - 28 - 3
Big TwelveOklahoma State8 - 37 - 4
Big TwelveKansas State6 - 56 - 5
Big TwelveColorado4 - 75 - 6
Big TwelveNebraska5 - 65 - 6
Big TwelveTexas A&M4 - 75 - 6
Big TwelveBaylor2 - 93 - 8
Big TwelveIowa State1 - 102 - 9
Conference USAHouston9 - 18 - 2
Conference USAEast Carolina7 - 37 - 3
Conference USATulsa6 - 47 - 3
Conference USAUCF8 - 27 - 3
Conference USARice7 - 36 - 4
Conference USAS. Miss6 - 55 - 6
Conference USASMU5 - 65 - 6
Conference USAMemphis2 - 84 - 6
Conference USAUTEP3 - 74 - 6
Conference USAMarshall3 - 73 - 7
Conference USATulane2 - 83 - 7
Conference USAUAB1 - 92 - 8
Independents (FBS)Notre Dame6 - 46 - 4
Independents (FBS)Navy4 - 65 - 5
Independents (FBS)Western Kentucky3 - 84 - 7
Independents (FBS)Army1 - 92 - 8
Mid-AmericanBall State9 - 17 - 3
Mid-AmericanW. Michigan8 - 37 - 4
Mid-AmericanC. Michigan7 - 36 - 4
Mid-AmericanMiami (OH)7 - 36 - 4
Mid-AmericanBowling Green4 - 65 - 5
Mid-AmericanKent St.4 - 65 - 5
Mid-AmericanOhio4 - 65 - 5
Mid-AmericanTemple4 - 65 - 5
Mid-AmericanBuffalo3 - 74 - 6
Mid-AmericanNorthern Illinois3 - 74 - 6
Mid-AmericanAkron2 - 83 - 7
Mid-AmericanE. Michigan2 - 83 - 7
Mid-AmericanToledo3 - 73 - 7
Mountain WestBrigham Young11 - 09 - 2
Mountain WestUtah9 - 29 - 2
Mountain WestTCU9 - 28 - 3
Mountain WestAir Force7 - 47 - 4
Mountain WestNew Mexico8 - 47 - 5
Mountain WestWyoming5 - 66 - 5
Mountain WestColorado St.3 - 84 - 7
Mountain WestUNLV2 - 93 - 8
Mountain WestSan Diego State1 - 102 - 9
Pacific-10USC9 - 19 - 1
Pacific-10Arizona St.8 - 27 - 3
Pacific-10Oregon7 - 47 - 4
Pacific-10Arizona6 - 46 - 4
Pacific-10California8 - 26 - 4
Pacific-10UCLA5 - 56 - 4
Pacific-10Oregon State3 - 74 - 6
Pacific-10Washington St.3 - 84 - 7
Pacific-10Washington2 - 83 - 7
Pacific-10Stanford1 - 102 - 9
SoutheasternGeorgia11 - 010 - 1
SoutheasternLSU9 - 19 - 1
SoutheasternFlorida8 - 28 - 2
SoutheasternAlabama8 - 38 - 3
SoutheasternAuburn8 - 37 - 4
SoutheasternTennessee6 - 46 - 4
SoutheasternKentucky7 - 46 - 5
SoutheasternS. Carolina6 - 56 - 5
SoutheasternMississippi State4 - 65 - 5
SoutheasternMississippi4 - 65 - 5
SoutheasternArkansas4 - 64 - 6
SoutheasternVanderbilt0 - 101 - 9
Sun BeltFlorida Atlantic8 - 27 - 3
Sun BeltArkansas St.5 - 45 - 4
Sun BeltLA-Monroe7 - 46 - 5
Sun BeltLA-Laf2 - 84 - 6
Sun BeltTroy3 - 74 - 6
Sun BeltMid Tenn3 - 73 - 7
Sun BeltNorth Texas2 - 83 - 7
Sun BeltFla. Int.0 - 91 - 8
Western AthleticBoise State9 - 19 - 1
Western AthleticFresno State9 - 18 - 2
Western AthleticNevada7 - 37 - 3
Western AthleticHawaii5 - 56 - 4
Western AthleticIdaho5 - 65 - 6
Western AthleticLouisiana Tech4 - 64 - 6
Western AthleticNew Mexico State3 - 74 - 6
Western AthleticSan Jose State3 - 84 - 7
Western AthleticUtah State0 - 111 - 10

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