Week 10 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
August 20th, 2008

We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 10.

Game of the Week: #19 USF 29 (7-2) @ #25 Cincinnati 25 (6-2)
Yes, Georgia plays Florida this week and Texas plays Texas Tech. Those are technically better games by record and Power Rankings, but we have talked about those teams already. What about this game between two top 25 teams playing on national television on a Thursday night while vying to displace West Virginia atop the Big East. Only the winner between South Florida and Cincinnati could do it, as neither has played the Mounatineers up to this point. Entering the game with just one loss and playing in front of a soldout Nippert Stadium crowd, Matt Grothe and the USF Bulls are too much for UC's Bearcats, and the somewhat muddled situation they have at QB. If Dustin Grutza (or Demetrius Jones or Chazz Anderson) is the best man for the job and has started every game thus far, this offense may be a little better than the computer currently views it. This could be a big swing game, not just for the Big East in 2008, but for the futures of both of these programs.

Week 10 Scores for Every FBS Game

MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Arkansas St. @ Alabama959-33
Tulane @ LSU957-46
Duke @ WF959-31
Nebraska @ Oklahoma9517-41
San Diego State @ Wyoming956-33
Washington @ USC9512-35
Iowa State @ Oklahoma State9513-34
Fla. Int. @ LA-Laf88.517-34
UAB @ S. Miss86.914-32
Iowa @ Illinois83.613-32
E. Michigan @ W. Michigan83.614-30
Florida @ Georgia78.720-39
Troy @ LA-Monroe75.415-27
Kansas State @ Kansas73.830-35
Kent St. @ Bowling Green67.219-29
Tulsa @ Arkansas65.628-38
San Jose State @ Idaho65.615-28
C. Michigan @ Indiana60.726-36
Temple @ Navy57.422-29
Buffalo @ Ohio55.722-30
Oregon @ California55.723-29
Michigan @ Purdue52.523-28
Northwestern @ Minn.47.533-34
Kentucky @ Mississippi State47.515-14
East Carolina @ UCF45.922-22
North Texas @ Western Kentucky4124-19
Colorado @ Texas A&M37.733-30
Pittsburgh @ Notre Dame37.723-19
Tennessee @ S. Carolina37.730-27
South Florida @ Cincinnati36.129-25
Texas @ Texas Tech36.134-31
Utah @ New Mexico36.122-18
Washington St. @ Stanford32.823-20
Miami (FL) @ Virginia31.116-15
Rice @ UTEP31.127-25
Florida State @ GA Tech29.524-21
Wisconsin @ Michigan State19.728-20
Auburn @ Mississippi1823-13
W. Virginia @ Connecticut14.837-22
Arizona St. @ Oregon State9.829-16
Houston @ Marshall8.236-18
Boise State @ New Mexico State6.634-18
Hawaii @ Utah State6.629-14
Louisville @ Syracuse539-25
TCU @ UNLV533-15
Missouri @ Baylor534-22
Fresno State @ Louisiana Tech539-17
Clemson @ Boston College530-12
Brigham Young @ Colorado St.535-19
Air Force @ Army534-9

Updated FBS Standings through Week 10

ConferenceTeamAbs RecordExp Record
Atlantic CoastClemson8 - 07 - 1
Atlantic CoastVirginia Tech8 - 07 - 1
Atlantic CoastWF7 - 17 - 1
Atlantic CoastMaryland5 - 36 - 2
Atlantic CoastFlorida State6 - 25 - 3
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina7 - 15 - 3
Atlantic CoastBoston College4 - 44 - 4
Atlantic CoastDuke2 - 64 - 4
Atlantic CoastGA Tech5 - 44 - 5
Atlantic CoastMiami (FL)4 - 54 - 5
Atlantic CoastVirginia2 - 73 - 6
Atlantic CoastNC St.1 - 71 - 7
Big EastW. Virginia8 - 07 - 1
Big EastSouth Florida8 - 17 - 2
Big EastCincinnati6 - 26 - 2
Big EastLouisville6 - 26 - 2
Big EastPittsburgh7 - 16 - 2
Big EastConnecticut6 - 35 - 4
Big EastRutgers2 - 64 - 4
Big EastSyracuse2 - 62 - 6
Big TenOhio State9 - 09 - 0
Big TenIllinois7 - 27 - 2
Big TenIndiana8 - 16 - 3
Big TenWisconsin8 - 16 - 3
Big TenIowa4 - 55 - 4
Big TenMichigan6 - 35 - 4
Big TenPenn State4 - 55 - 4
Big TenPurdue8 - 15 - 4
Big TenMichigan State4 - 65 - 5
Big TenMinn.3 - 64 - 5
Big TenNorthwestern5 - 44 - 5
Big TwelveOklahoma9 - 09 - 0
Big TwelveMissouri9 - 08 - 1
Big TwelveKansas8 - 17 - 2
Big TwelveTexas Tech7 - 27 - 2
Big TwelveTexas7 - 27 - 2
Big TwelveOklahoma State7 - 26 - 3
Big TwelveKansas State5 - 45 - 4
Big TwelveNebraska5 - 45 - 4
Big TwelveTexas A&M3 - 64 - 5
Big TwelveBaylor2 - 73 - 6
Big TwelveColorado3 - 63 - 6
Big TwelveIowa State1 - 82 - 7
Conference USAHouston7 - 16 - 2
Conference USATulsa6 - 36 - 3
Conference USAEast Carolina5 - 35 - 3
Conference USAUCF6 - 25 - 3
Conference USARice6 - 35 - 4
Conference USAS. Miss6 - 35 - 4
Conference USAMemphis2 - 74 - 5
Conference USAMarshall3 - 53 - 5
Conference USAUTEP2 - 63 - 5
Conference USASMU3 - 63 - 6
Conference USATulane1 - 72 - 6
Conference USAUAB1 - 82 - 7
Independents (FBS)Notre Dame4 - 45 - 3
Independents (FBS)Navy4 - 54 - 5
Independents (FBS)Western Kentucky2 - 73 - 6
Independents (FBS)Army1 - 82 - 7
Mid-AmericanBall State7 - 16 - 2
Mid-AmericanW. Michigan7 - 26 - 3
Mid-AmericanMiami (OH)6 - 25 - 3
Mid-AmericanC. Michigan6 - 35 - 4
Mid-AmericanBowling Green4 - 54 - 5
Mid-AmericanKent St.4 - 54 - 5
Mid-AmericanOhio3 - 64 - 5
Mid-AmericanTemple3 - 64 - 5
Mid-AmericanBuffalo2 - 63 - 5
Mid-AmericanNorthern Illinois3 - 53 - 5
Mid-AmericanE. Michigan2 - 83 - 7
Mid-AmericanAkron2 - 62 - 6
Mid-AmericanToledo2 - 62 - 6
Mountain WestBrigham Young9 - 08 - 1
Mountain WestUtah8 - 17 - 2
Mountain WestTCU8 - 27 - 3
Mountain WestAir Force6 - 36 - 3
Mountain WestWyoming4 - 55 - 4
Mountain WestNew Mexico6 - 45 - 5
Mountain WestColorado St.3 - 63 - 6
Mountain WestSan Diego State1 - 82 - 7
Mountain WestUNLV2 - 72 - 7
Pacific-10USC7 - 17 - 1
Pacific-10Arizona St.6 - 25 - 3
Pacific-10Arizona5 - 35 - 3
Pacific-10California7 - 15 - 3
Pacific-10Oregon5 - 45 - 4
Pacific-10UCLA3 - 54 - 4
Pacific-10Oregon State3 - 53 - 5
Pacific-10Washington2 - 63 - 5
Pacific-10Washington St.3 - 63 - 6
Pacific-10Stanford1 - 82 - 7
SoutheasternGeorgia9 - 08 - 1
SoutheasternLSU8 - 18 - 1
SoutheasternFlorida6 - 26 - 2
SoutheasternAlabama7 - 26 - 3
SoutheasternAuburn7 - 26 - 3
SoutheasternKentucky6 - 35 - 4
SoutheasternMississippi State4 - 55 - 4
SoutheasternS. Carolina5 - 45 - 4
SoutheasternTennessee5 - 45 - 4
SoutheasternArkansas4 - 54 - 5
SoutheasternMississippi3 - 64 - 5
SoutheasternVanderbilt0 - 81 - 7
Sun BeltFlorida Atlantic6 - 26 - 2
Sun BeltLA-Monroe6 - 35 - 4
Sun BeltArkansas St.4 - 44 - 4
Sun BeltLA-Laf2 - 63 - 5
Sun BeltNorth Texas2 - 73 - 6
Sun BeltTroy3 - 63 - 6
Sun BeltMid Tenn2 - 62 - 6
Sun BeltFla. Int.0 - 81 - 7
Western AthleticBoise State7 - 17 - 1
Western AthleticFresno State7 - 16 - 2
Western AthleticNevada6 - 26 - 2
Western AthleticHawaii4 - 55 - 4
Western AthleticIdaho5 - 55 - 5
Western AthleticNew Mexico State3 - 53 - 5
Western AthleticSan Jose State3 - 63 - 6
Western AthleticLouisiana Tech2 - 62 - 6
Western AthleticUtah State0 - 91 - 8

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