Week 9 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
August 19th, 2008

We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 9.

Game of the Week: #2 Georgia 27 (8-0) @ #4 LSU 20 (7-1)
Week 9 will be a huge week for college football. In the simulations, just about every game is close, so several games could easily go either way. Many games could warrant being chosen for the Game of the Week - in other weeks. Georgia vs. LSU though is the SEC's Super Bowl in 2008. The winner of this game (especially if it wins the expected rematch in the SEC Championship) will likely face the winner of the Ohio State/USC game (aka OSU) in the BCS National Championship. And not to completely give that answer away with six week-by-week previews remaining, but Georgia makes it out of this slugfest with its title hopes alive, winning 70.5% of the time and by an average score of 27-20. The Bulldogs reward? They play #8 Florida next week.

Week 9 Scores for Every FBS Game

MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Penn State @ Ohio State957-36
UNLV @ Brigham Young9517-34
NC St. @ Maryland9512-35
Kentucky @ Florida93.411-35
Mid Tenn @ Mississippi State91.87-29
Colorado @ Missouri90.222-33
E. Michigan @ Ball State88.519-40
Boston College @ North Carolina83.617-30
Northwestern @ Indiana83.618-34
Auburn @ W. Virginia8214-31
Minn. @ Purdue8226-35
Oklahoma State @ Texas75.430-34
Kent St. @ Miami (OH)73.813-27
Baylor @ Nebraska70.521-34
SMU @ Navy70.527-39
Wyoming @ TCU68.910-21
Oregon @ Arizona St.63.922-31
Rutgers @ Pittsburgh62.321-29
Texas Tech @ Kansas5932-32
UCLA @ California57.424-30
Mississippi @ Arkansas57.422-30
Ohio @ Temple55.716-26
Illinois @ Wisconsin54.122-27
Virginia @ GA Tech50.813-23
Michigan State @ Michigan50.820-30
New Mexico State @ Idaho49.226-29
New Mexico @ Air Force47.522-21
South Florida @ Louisville45.937-35
Notre Dame @ Washington42.629-26
Troy @ North Texas42.620-19
UCF @ Tulsa39.331-27
Virginia Tech @ Florida State32.823-19
Cincinnati @ Connecticut32.828-23
Alabama @ Tennessee32.829-24
S. Miss @ Memphis31.127-21
Bowling Green @ Northern Illinois31.128-23
Duke @ Vanderbilt31.122-18
Georgia @ LSU29.527-20
Louisiana Tech @ Army27.920-14
Nevada @ Hawaii27.935-29
Florida Atlantic @ LA-Monroe26.232-26
Rice @ Tulane24.629-22
Colorado St. @ San Diego State19.728-17
C. Michigan @ Toledo14.838-27
Oklahoma @ Kansas State6.636-28
Texas A&M @ Iowa State6.632-19
USC @ Arizona535-15
Boise State @ San Jose State534-11
WF @ Miami (FL)526-11
Fresno State @ Utah State536-13

Updated FBS Standings through Week 9

ConferenceTeamAbs RecordExp Record
Atlantic CoastVirginia Tech8 - 07 - 1
Atlantic CoastClemson7 - 06 - 1
Atlantic CoastWF6 - 16 - 1
Atlantic CoastMaryland5 - 36 - 2
Atlantic CoastFlorida State5 - 25 - 2
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina7 - 15 - 3
Atlantic CoastBoston College4 - 34 - 3
Atlantic CoastDuke2 - 54 - 3
Atlantic CoastGA Tech5 - 34 - 4
Atlantic CoastMiami (FL)3 - 53 - 5
Atlantic CoastVirginia2 - 63 - 5
Atlantic CoastNC St.1 - 71 - 7
Big EastW. Virginia7 - 07 - 0
Big EastSouth Florida7 - 16 - 2
Big EastCincinnati6 - 15 - 2
Big EastLouisville5 - 25 - 2
Big EastPittsburgh6 - 15 - 2
Big EastConnecticut6 - 25 - 3
Big EastRutgers2 - 64 - 4
Big EastSyracuse2 - 52 - 5
Big TenOhio State9 - 09 - 0
Big TenIllinois6 - 26 - 2
Big TenIndiana7 - 16 - 2
Big TenWisconsin7 - 16 - 2
Big TenIowa4 - 45 - 3
Big TenMichigan6 - 25 - 3
Big TenPurdue7 - 15 - 3
Big TenMichigan State4 - 55 - 4
Big TenPenn State4 - 55 - 4
Big TenNorthwestern4 - 44 - 4
Big TenMinn.3 - 53 - 5
Big TwelveOklahoma8 - 08 - 0
Big TwelveMissouri8 - 07 - 1
Big TwelveKansas7 - 16 - 2
Big TwelveTexas Tech7 - 16 - 2
Big TwelveTexas6 - 26 - 2
Big TwelveKansas State5 - 35 - 3
Big TwelveOklahoma State6 - 25 - 3
Big TwelveNebraska5 - 34 - 4
Big TwelveTexas A&M3 - 54 - 4
Big TwelveBaylor2 - 63 - 5
Big TwelveColorado2 - 63 - 5
Big TwelveIowa State1 - 72 - 6
Conference USATulsa6 - 26 - 2
Conference USAHouston6 - 15 - 2
Conference USAUCF6 - 15 - 2
Conference USAEast Carolina4 - 34 - 3
Conference USARice5 - 34 - 4
Conference USAS. Miss5 - 34 - 4
Conference USAMemphis2 - 74 - 5
Conference USAMarshall3 - 43 - 4
Conference USASMU3 - 63 - 6
Conference USATulane1 - 62 - 5
Conference USAUTEP2 - 52 - 5
Conference USAUAB1 - 72 - 6
Independents (FBS)Notre Dame4 - 34 - 3
Independents (FBS)Navy3 - 54 - 4
Independents (FBS)Army1 - 72 - 6
Independents (FBS)Western Kentucky2 - 62 - 6
Mid-AmericanBall State7 - 16 - 2
Mid-AmericanC. Michigan6 - 25 - 3
Mid-AmericanMiami (OH)6 - 25 - 3
Mid-AmericanW. Michigan6 - 25 - 3
Mid-AmericanBowling Green3 - 54 - 4
Mid-AmericanKent St.4 - 44 - 4
Mid-AmericanOhio2 - 64 - 4
Mid-AmericanTemple3 - 54 - 4
Mid-AmericanBuffalo2 - 53 - 4
Mid-AmericanNorthern Illinois3 - 53 - 5
Mid-AmericanE. Michigan2 - 73 - 6
Mid-AmericanAkron2 - 62 - 6
Mid-AmericanToledo2 - 62 - 6
Mountain WestBrigham Young8 - 07 - 1
Mountain WestUtah7 - 17 - 1
Mountain WestTCU7 - 26 - 3
Mountain WestAir Force5 - 35 - 3
Mountain WestNew Mexico6 - 35 - 4
Mountain WestWyoming3 - 54 - 4
Mountain WestColorado St.3 - 53 - 5
Mountain WestSan Diego State1 - 72 - 6
Mountain WestUNLV2 - 62 - 6
Pacific-10USC6 - 16 - 1
Pacific-10Arizona5 - 35 - 3
Pacific-10Oregon5 - 35 - 3
Pacific-10Arizona St.5 - 24 - 3
Pacific-10California6 - 14 - 3
Pacific-10UCLA3 - 54 - 4
Pacific-10Oregon State3 - 43 - 4
Pacific-10Washington2 - 53 - 4
Pacific-10Washington St.2 - 63 - 5
Pacific-10Stanford1 - 71 - 7
SoutheasternGeorgia8 - 08 - 0
SoutheasternLSU7 - 17 - 1
SoutheasternFlorida6 - 16 - 1
SoutheasternAlabama6 - 26 - 2
SoutheasternAuburn6 - 25 - 3
SoutheasternKentucky5 - 35 - 3
SoutheasternMississippi State4 - 45 - 3
SoutheasternS. Carolina5 - 35 - 3
SoutheasternMississippi3 - 54 - 4
SoutheasternTennessee4 - 44 - 4
SoutheasternArkansas3 - 53 - 5
SoutheasternVanderbilt0 - 81 - 7
Sun BeltFlorida Atlantic6 - 26 - 2
Sun BeltArkansas St.4 - 34 - 3
Sun BeltLA-Monroe5 - 34 - 4
Sun BeltTroy3 - 53 - 5
Sun BeltLA-Laf1 - 62 - 5
Sun BeltMid Tenn2 - 62 - 6
Sun BeltNorth Texas1 - 72 - 6
Sun BeltFla. Int.0 - 71 - 6
Western AthleticBoise State6 - 16 - 1
Western AthleticNevada6 - 26 - 2
Western AthleticFresno State6 - 15 - 2
Western AthleticHawaii3 - 54 - 4
Western AthleticIdaho4 - 54 - 5
Western AthleticNew Mexico State3 - 43 - 4
Western AthleticSan Jose State3 - 53 - 5
Western AthleticLouisiana Tech2 - 52 - 5
Western AthleticUtah State0 - 81 - 7

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