Week 1 NCAA Projections

Scores and standings for every team
By Paul Bessire, WhatIfSports.com
August 11th, 2008

We will preview a college football week each day for 15 days, including scores and updated standings for each week. At the conclusion of those previews, we will present our bowl match-ups with results and final updated pre-season Power Rankings (see original rankings below).

Rosters and depth charts are up-to-date and as accurate as possible as of August 1, 2008. A schedule of upcoming college football preview content including links to other previews that have already been posted is located here.

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Each regular season FBS game is simulated 1,000 times, with the sum of the winning percentages of those games being our Expected and Absolute Records as of the conclusion of that week. The Absolute Record is simply the total number of games in which a team is favored. The Expected Record, the more accurate approach, is the sum of the team's win probabilities from each game. The Expected Record accounts for the fact that some wins are less certain than others (a 50.1% win is different than a 99% win). Since the favored team does not win every game (otherwise, why would we watch?), the likelihood of an upset is important to take into account. We may ultimately say that six teams are favored to win all of their games, but we only expect one team to do so (stick around to August 26th to find out who).

Also, especially since we are rounding, it is possible for a team to win a game more often, yet score the same or fewer points than the opponent on average. In those cases, for Absolute Records, we always take higher winning percentage and are not predicting a tie or a win by an underdog. This is another reason why the expected records are more accurate, as the teams are so evenly matched, the game could easily go either way.

The inputs to the simulations are based on a rigorous analysis of each team that first considers strength-of-schedule-adjusted team and player ratings from 2007 and then makes modifications for 2008 based on returning starters (who, where and how many), expected progression of returning players in new roles, depth at each position and incoming recruits and transfers.

Games for each week are ordered by winning percentage of the home team descending, with the score reading the visitors first and then the home team. If a team is listed as having a 95% chance of winning, that means that it won at 95% or more of the 1,000 simulations. Every underdog has a chance to win. Along those lines, this may be relatively obvious for some examples (i.e. LSU vs. Appalachian State), but non-FBS rosters and ratings are not maintained individually due to lack of data. In other words, right or wrong, all non-FBS teams are treated equally.

Today we preview Week 1.

Game of the Week: #13 Alabama 19 (0-1) @ #7 Clemson 30 (1-0)
Two top 15 teams in our pre-season Power Rankings clash in a great early season battle that may help determine which of these teams is legit (though we obviously like each of them). Both squads are talented, but Clemson has the clear edge in experience, and it helps them get past the Crimson Tide 72.1% of the time in Week 1.

Week 1 Scores for Every FBS Game

MatchupHome Win%Avg Score
Charleston Southern @ Miami (FL)954-35
Delaware @ Maryland954-44
Jacksonville State @ GA Tech954-36
James Madison @ Duke955-37
McNeese State @ North Carolina954-42
Eastern Kentucky @ Cincinnati954-43
Hofstra @ Connecticut953-38
Tennessee-Martin @ South Florida955-44
Villanova @ W. Virginia953-54
Akron @ Wisconsin959-36
Coastal Carolina @ Penn State954-40
Maine @ Iowa954-36
Youngstown State @ Ohio State952-62
Chattanooga @ Oklahoma953-60
Eastern Washington @ Texas Tech954-46
Fla. Int. @ Kansas957-42
South Dakota State @ Iowa State956-28
Illinois State @ Marshall956-32
South Carolina State @ UCF955-38
Southern University @ Houston954-43
Towson @ Navy956-39
Eastern Illinois @ C. Michigan955-41
Indiana State @ E. Michigan957-32
Northeastern @ Ball State955-39
Northern Iowa @ Brigham Young954-44
Southern Utah @ Air Force954-40
Northern Arizona @ Arizona St.954-43
Appalachian State @ LSU953-57
Georgia Southern @ Georgia952-60
Western Illinois @ Arkansas955-39
Grambling State @ Nevada955-45
Idaho State @ Boise State955-41
California-Davis @ San Jose State956-28
North Texas @ Kansas State9517-38
Cal Poly @ San Diego State93.46-26
Hawaii @ Florida93.414-40
LA-Monroe @ Auburn93.410-32
Western Kentucky @ Indiana91.811-32
Bowling Green @ Pittsburgh90.214-36
NC St. @ S. Carolina90.28-33
Utah State @ UNLV88.516-32
Memphis @ Mississippi83.617-33
Idaho @ Arizona8219-38
LA-Laf @ S. Miss80.322-35
Vanderbilt @ Miami (OH)80.312-25
Florida Atlantic @ Texas78.723-32
Syracuse @ Northwestern7719-33
Washington @ Oregon75.421-37
Alabama @ Clemson72.119-30
Northern Illinois @ Minn.72.125-38
Arkansas St. @ Texas A&M70.524-37
W. Michigan @ Nebraska67.219-32
Illinois @ Missouri65.629-38
Ohio @ Wyoming65.615-25
Kentucky @ Louisville5927-35
Utah @ Michigan5919-26
UTEP @ Buffalo5924-30
Troy @ Mid Tenn57.415-23
Michigan State @ California55.725-33
SMU @ Rice49.229-32
Fresno State @ Rutgers42.635-33
Tennessee @ UCLA34.428-26
TCU @ New Mexico27.920-17
Virginia Tech @ East Carolina24.624-19
Colorado @ Colorado St.21.330-22
Oregon State @ Stanford21.324-16
Oklahoma State @ Washington St.1836-27
Boston College @ Kent St.16.426-15
Tulsa @ UAB8.236-22
Mississippi State @ Louisiana Tech524-9
WF @ Baylor530-14
Temple @ Army527-10
USC @ Virginia534-8

Updated FBS Standings through Week 1

ConferenceTeamAbs RecordExp Record
Atlantic CoastBoston College1 - 01 - 0
Atlantic CoastClemson1 - 01 - 0
Atlantic CoastDuke1 - 01 - 0
Atlantic CoastGA Tech1 - 01 - 0
Atlantic CoastMaryland1 - 01 - 0
Atlantic CoastMiami (FL)1 - 01 - 0
Atlantic CoastNorth Carolina1 - 01 - 0
Atlantic CoastVirginia Tech1 - 01 - 0
Atlantic CoastWF1 - 01 - 0
Atlantic CoastNC St.0 - 10 - 1
Atlantic CoastVirginia0 - 10 - 1
Big EastCincinnati1 - 01 - 0
Big EastConnecticut1 - 01 - 0
Big EastLouisville1 - 01 - 0
Big EastPittsburgh1 - 01 - 0
Big EastSouth Florida1 - 01 - 0
Big EastW. Virginia1 - 01 - 0
Big EastRutgers0 - 10 - 1
Big EastSyracuse0 - 10 - 1
Big TenIndiana1 - 01 - 0
Big TenIowa1 - 01 - 0
Big TenMichigan1 - 01 - 0
Big TenMinn.1 - 01 - 0
Big TenNorthwestern1 - 01 - 0
Big TenOhio State1 - 01 - 0
Big TenPenn State1 - 01 - 0
Big TenWisconsin1 - 01 - 0
Big TenIllinois0 - 10 - 1
Big TenMichigan State0 - 10 - 1
Big TwelveColorado1 - 01 - 0
Big TwelveIowa State1 - 01 - 0
Big TwelveKansas State1 - 01 - 0
Big TwelveKansas1 - 01 - 0
Big TwelveMissouri1 - 01 - 0
Big TwelveNebraska1 - 01 - 0
Big TwelveOklahoma State1 - 01 - 0
Big TwelveOklahoma1 - 01 - 0
Big TwelveTexas A&M1 - 01 - 0
Big TwelveTexas Tech1 - 01 - 0
Big TwelveTexas1 - 01 - 0
Big TwelveBaylor0 - 10 - 1
Conference USAHouston1 - 01 - 0
Conference USAMarshall1 - 01 - 0
Conference USAS. Miss1 - 01 - 0
Conference USASMU1 - 01 - 0
Conference USATulsa1 - 01 - 0
Conference USAUCF1 - 01 - 0
Conference USAEast Carolina0 - 10 - 1
Conference USAMemphis0 - 10 - 1
Conference USARice0 - 10 - 1
Conference USAUAB0 - 10 - 1
Conference USAUTEP0 - 10 - 1
Independents (FBS)Navy1 - 01 - 0
Independents (FBS)Army0 - 10 - 1
Independents (FBS)Western Kentucky0 - 10 - 1
Mid-AmericanBall State1 - 01 - 0
Mid-AmericanBuffalo1 - 01 - 0
Mid-AmericanC. Michigan1 - 01 - 0
Mid-AmericanE. Michigan1 - 01 - 0
Mid-AmericanMiami (OH)1 - 01 - 0
Mid-AmericanTemple1 - 01 - 0
Mid-AmericanAkron0 - 10 - 1
Mid-AmericanBowling Green0 - 10 - 1
Mid-AmericanKent St.0 - 10 - 1
Mid-AmericanNorthern Illinois0 - 10 - 1
Mid-AmericanOhio0 - 10 - 1
Mid-AmericanW. Michigan0 - 10 - 1
Mountain WestAir Force1 - 01 - 0
Mountain WestBrigham Young1 - 01 - 0
Mountain WestSan Diego State1 - 01 - 0
Mountain WestTCU1 - 01 - 0
Mountain WestUNLV1 - 01 - 0
Mountain WestWyoming1 - 01 - 0
Mountain WestColorado St.0 - 10 - 1
Mountain WestNew Mexico0 - 10 - 1
Mountain WestUtah0 - 10 - 1
Pacific-10Arizona St.1 - 01 - 0
Pacific-10Arizona1 - 01 - 0
Pacific-10California1 - 01 - 0
Pacific-10Oregon State1 - 01 - 0
Pacific-10Oregon1 - 01 - 0
Pacific-10USC1 - 01 - 0
Pacific-10Stanford0 - 10 - 1
Pacific-10UCLA0 - 10 - 1
Pacific-10Washington St.0 - 10 - 1
Pacific-10Washington0 - 10 - 1
SoutheasternArkansas1 - 01 - 0
SoutheasternAuburn1 - 01 - 0
SoutheasternFlorida1 - 01 - 0
SoutheasternGeorgia1 - 01 - 0
SoutheasternLSU1 - 01 - 0
SoutheasternMississippi State1 - 01 - 0
SoutheasternMississippi1 - 01 - 0
SoutheasternS. Carolina1 - 01 - 0
SoutheasternTennessee1 - 01 - 0
SoutheasternAlabama0 - 10 - 1
SoutheasternKentucky0 - 10 - 1
SoutheasternVanderbilt0 - 10 - 1
Sun BeltMid Tenn1 - 01 - 0
Sun BeltArkansas St.0 - 10 - 1
Sun BeltFla. Int.0 - 10 - 1
Sun BeltFlorida Atlantic0 - 10 - 1
Sun BeltLA-Laf0 - 10 - 1
Sun BeltLA-Monroe0 - 10 - 1
Sun BeltNorth Texas0 - 10 - 1
Sun BeltTroy0 - 10 - 1
Western AthleticBoise State1 - 01 - 0
Western AthleticFresno State1 - 01 - 0
Western AthleticNevada1 - 01 - 0
Western AthleticSan Jose State1 - 01 - 0
Western AthleticHawaii0 - 10 - 1
Western AthleticIdaho0 - 10 - 1
Western AthleticLouisiana Tech0 - 10 - 1
Western AthleticUtah State0 - 10 - 1

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